MLB Predictions

Now that we’re a week or so into baseball season… or 48 hours… or 1 hour if you’re Hank Steinbrenner and you still think the universe revolves around the Yankees, it’s about time to make my predictions for the 2008 season.

AL East: Red Sox – The Sox have potential to either win the World Series or finish third in the AL East. If Beckett gets healthy, Manny and Papi return to form, Dice-K has the kind of second year in Boston that Beckett had, and the kids (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz and Lester) perform up to expectations, the Sox could win 100 games. If none of those things happen, the Sox will struggle to stay above .500. I’m leaning towards the 100 wins.

AL Central: Indians – They were up 3 games to 1 on the Red Sox in the ALCS last year. Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner should rebound, and if Eric Wedge plays it smart and keeps C.C. Sabathia somewhat rested entering the playoffs, the Indians should be back in the ALCS.

AL West: Angels – Is anyone surprised that Kelvim Escobar is hurt again? Is there a more over-rated centerfield bat than Torii Hunter? If the Angels weren’t playing in the worst division outside the NL Central, this pick would really worry me.

Wild Card: Mariners – I know this sounds weird after saying that the AL West is the worst division in the AL. But the Blue Jays and Rays are going to beat up on the Yankees enough to keep a second AL East team out of the playoffs. I’ll get to the Tigers in a moment… but King Felix is set for a breakout year as the Mariners #2 starter, and if Richie Sexton can return to form, Seattle could make a run at the AL West title. Playing nearly 40 games against the A’s and Rangers won’t hurt either.

Biggest Disappointment: Tigers - Sorry, but Dontrelle Willis in the middle of an AL rotation? He might not win 5 games, and without Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya til the All-Star Break or later? Huge line-up, no back end of the rotation, and poor bull-pen…haven’t the Yankees been trying this for most of the decade?

Biggest Surprise: Rays – Tampa Bay finally has pitching and bats. And everyone is young. If Scott Kazmir comes back soon and healthy, the Rays will finish over .500 and in 3^rd place in the AL East.

NL East: Mets – Santana could win 25+ games in the NL. He should never be allowed to swing a bat. If he gets injured swinging a bat or running the bases, Omar Minaya just might William Foster (Michael Douglas) in Falling Down on Willie Randolph in the parking lot after the game.

NL Central: Cubs – I would have taken the Brewers but then they signed Eric “the Human Torch” Gagne to close for them. The $10 million he’ll “earn” this season makes him the most overpaid player in the world of sports (non-Kieth Van Horn class). Kerry Wood’s arm should fall off any minute now which would be addition by subtraction allowing Carlos Marmol to close. While the Cubs rotation isn’t great, they get to play 70+ games against the Pirates, Reds, Astros, and Cardinals. That’s gotta be 50 wins right there. They won’t even have to go .500 against the rest of their schedule to win the NL Central.

NL West: Diamondbacks – Webb and Haren will be great as usual. Micah Owings could be special. If they get anything from Randy Johnson, this rotation could be absolutely terrifying.

Wild Card: Dodgers – Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, and Chad Billingsley match up pretty well with any rotation in the game. They’ve got some depth all over the field with Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre coming off the bench.

Biggest Disappointment: Rockies – The Rockies had a magical year last year. I don’t see them repeating it this year with all the pitching in the AL West. Honorable mention to the Phillies, Braves and Brewers.

Biggest Surprise: Nobody – The NL is the Haves and the Have Nots. The playoff teams listed above along with the Phillies, Braves and Brewers are all in the hunt. No one else is even decent.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett – With Santana out of the league, this is pretty much a two horse race between C.C. Sabathia and Beckett. If it’s as close as it was last year, Beckett’s post-season performance from 2007 will be the deciding factor.

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana – See previous statement about 25+ wins. This won’t be close, in fact the voters might not award a second place vote. Santana is going to be that much better than the field.

AL MVP: Manny Ramirez – In a walk year (sort of) Manny will put up triple crown challenging numbers batting behind David Ortiz and in front of the resurgent J.D. Drew.

NL MVP: Johan Santana – 25 Wins!? No question, if Santana wins 25 games and throws 220 innings he will win the MVP in a run-away.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jacoby Ellsbury – Ok so maybe this is a homer pick, but if Ellsbury hits .315 with 12 homers, 60 RBI and steals 35 bases (and I don’t think these numbers are a stretch) he’ll be a shoe-in to be the second ROY to come out of Pawtucket in as many years.

NL Rookie of the Year: Kosuke Fukudome – Described as a cross between Hideki Matsui and Ichiro? That either means a guy with no speed who can’t hit it out of the infield (that’s bad) or a speedy guy who can hit 15-25 homeruns. Batting 4^th in the Cubs lineup won’t hurt, so I’ll take a flier on the 30 year old “rookie.”

ALDS: Red Sox over Mariners (in 3) and Indians over Angels (in 3)
NLDS: Mets over Dodgers (in 4) & Diamondbacks over Cubs (in 4)
ALCS: Red Sox over Indians (in 6)
NLDS: Mets over Diamondbacks (in 7)
WS: Red Sox over Mets (in 6)