Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (HOME teams in caps)
Bills (+7.5) over EAGLES:
McNabb wins his last appearance in an Eagles uniform…but not by that much. But will the Philly fans boo McNabb in his final moments in the city of brotherly love?
BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Panthers:
Because I have no faith in the Panthers quarterback.
Steelers (-3.5) over RAVENS:
Because I have lots of faith in the Steelers quarterback.
Bengals (-2.5) over DOLPHINS:
Because I have no faith in either quarterback.
BROWNS (-10.5) over 49ers:
This game only matters if Tennessee ties.
PACKERS (-3.5) over Lions:
This game would be at least a 10 point spread if the Packers hadn’t turned in such a stinker last week. If this were the stock market, this’d be a growth investment. Buy low and watch Green Bay soar.
Jaguars (+6) over TEXANS:
The Jags are easily ten points better than Houston. The fact that they will probably rest key players doesn’t sway that by 16 points.
Saints (-2) over BEARS:
See Packers over Lions and reverse the theory.
Cowboys (+9) over REDSKINS:
The Cowboys have nothing to play for, will be sans T.O. and will want to rest Romo’s thumb. The Redskins are ‘win and in.’ They’ll win, but not by double digits.
BRONCOS (+3) over Vikings:
Too much scoreboard watching by the Vikes. The Broncos are going to sneak up on them. The Broncos catch an early lead and hold on against a team that can’t pass to save its (playoff) life.
Seahawks (+1) over FALCONS:
How are the Falcons favored against a playoff team!?
Chargers (-8) over RAIDERS:
I thought taking JaMarcus Russell was a mistake back in April. Starting Sunday he begins the 3 year process of proving me right. Also, Phil Rivers needs to shut-the-hell-up. You’re not good. Don’t start snapping at the other team when you’re winning, only to rely totally on the superstars on your team come the next game. Who would’ve thought that the additional pick sent to San Diego along with Rivers for Eli Manning would end up being the best player of the three by miles. That would be Shawne Merriman.
CARDINALS (-6) over Rams:
In a game that means nothing, take the team that hasn’t been awful all year.
JETS (-6) over Chiefs:
Is this game on TV anywhere? Aren’t there any junior high school field hockey they could be broadcasting?
COLTS (+6.5) over Titans:
I think the Titans will win. But since I’m sitting at 0-15 picking Titans games this year, I’m going against my gut. The fact that the Colts are a touchdown underdogs at home make it a little easier.
GIANTS (+14) over Patriots:
For some reason, the Pats chose not to disembowel the Dolphins last week. I don’t understand it, but I wouldn’t take a chance on them to cover double digit spreads until this has been answered.
Last Week: 6-8-1 ATS Every week that goes by is simply another 14-16 games in which you could be making money by betting I’m wrong.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Pyrrhic Victories and 'Roids
The Cowboys and Steelers won the battles this week, but with the losses of "T.O." and "Fast" Willie Parker, they may have lost the war. I think the loss of Parker is the more serious, not only because he has no chance of coming back whereas T.O. could be back for the NFC Championship or the Super Bowl but also because in the Junior Varsity Conference, the Cowboys probably won't need him until they run into Green Bay.
In other news, to all those who have stated that Barry Bonds was being singled out in the steroid investigation because of his race, I present to you: Roger Clemens. Has anyone even heard Bonds' name uttered this week? No, because its not about white or black or red or blue when it comes to how much we care about whether an athlete cheated or not. What matters is that player's level of stardom. Palmiero, Pettite, Gagne, Roberts, and even Sosa and McGwire are big names, but Clemens and Bonds are in their own stratosphere. Were upset when very good players, even borderline Hall of Famers cheated, but when the greatest pitcher and greatest hitter of this generation were found to have cheated, it called into question many of our favorite memories and some of the biggest records in all of sports. When guys like Palmiero, Pettite, Sosa and McGwire cheat, it allows mediocre players to be star players, or enables an aging player to collect a few extra game checks. When someone of Bonds or Clemens talent cheats, it allows them to break records, forever altering the way our heroes of the past are remembered. In 5 or 10 years when I'm teaching my son about baseball, I can't tell him that Barry Bonds is the greatest slugger of all time. I can't tell him that Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher I've ever seen take the mound. I have to tell him those things and then I have to explain the steroids era. In essence, Steroids have complicated something that should be simple. We like our sports simple. Our team is the good guys, your team is the bad guys. Simple. This guy hit more home runs than anyone else ever. Simple. But when you have to explain asterisks because of cheating, it stops being simple. I don't know that MLB can salvage the situation other than by adopting a zero tolerance policy towards Performance Enhancing Drugs. First offense: Lifetime Ban. Strike all records set by anyone on PED from the books. I don't think this will happen of course, so we can only hope that over the next few years someone from the C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana class emerges to become a CLEAN, dominant, 300 game winning pitcher that we thought Clemens was; and that...gulp... A-Rod CLEANLY breaks the home run record. I just threw up in my mouth typing that. Sadly though, both of these things need to happen for baseball to become simple again. I miss simple sports.
In other news, to all those who have stated that Barry Bonds was being singled out in the steroid investigation because of his race, I present to you: Roger Clemens. Has anyone even heard Bonds' name uttered this week? No, because its not about white or black or red or blue when it comes to how much we care about whether an athlete cheated or not. What matters is that player's level of stardom. Palmiero, Pettite, Gagne, Roberts, and even Sosa and McGwire are big names, but Clemens and Bonds are in their own stratosphere. Were upset when very good players, even borderline Hall of Famers cheated, but when the greatest pitcher and greatest hitter of this generation were found to have cheated, it called into question many of our favorite memories and some of the biggest records in all of sports. When guys like Palmiero, Pettite, Sosa and McGwire cheat, it allows mediocre players to be star players, or enables an aging player to collect a few extra game checks. When someone of Bonds or Clemens talent cheats, it allows them to break records, forever altering the way our heroes of the past are remembered. In 5 or 10 years when I'm teaching my son about baseball, I can't tell him that Barry Bonds is the greatest slugger of all time. I can't tell him that Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher I've ever seen take the mound. I have to tell him those things and then I have to explain the steroids era. In essence, Steroids have complicated something that should be simple. We like our sports simple. Our team is the good guys, your team is the bad guys. Simple. This guy hit more home runs than anyone else ever. Simple. But when you have to explain asterisks because of cheating, it stops being simple. I don't know that MLB can salvage the situation other than by adopting a zero tolerance policy towards Performance Enhancing Drugs. First offense: Lifetime Ban. Strike all records set by anyone on PED from the books. I don't think this will happen of course, so we can only hope that over the next few years someone from the C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana class emerges to become a CLEAN, dominant, 300 game winning pitcher that we thought Clemens was; and that...gulp... A-Rod CLEANLY breaks the home run record. I just threw up in my mouth typing that. Sadly though, both of these things need to happen for baseball to become simple again. I miss simple sports.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Week 16 NFL Picks
Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (HOME teams in caps)
PANTHERS (+10.5) over Cowboys:
Romo’s injured thumb gave him all kinds of trouble last week against the Eagles. You don’t see too many one dimensional teams dole out 11 point whippings.
Packers (-8.5) over BEARS:
I know this is a ‘throw out the records’ type of game. Ok, I’ll ignore the records and take the Packers because they have an immeasurably better quarterback, an improving running game, and a secondary which will allow them to put 8 in the box while playing Man on the outside. As long as the Packers don’t kick to Hester, this is a double digit win for Green Bay.
Browns (-3) over BENGALS:
Looking at the records, you’d think this is a no-brainer, right? Well let’s see. The Browns are only 3-4 on the road. Of course the Bengals are only 4-3 at home, and they’re coming off a loss to one of the two or three worst teams in the NFL in the 49ers. Alright, so it is a no-brainer after all. Though it ought to be exciting to watch if these two teams can put up the kind of numbers they did in their first meeting.
Dolphins (+22) over PATRIOTS:
I refuse to justify this game with a breakdown. Suffice it to say that the Fins should have to play LSU just to earn the privilege of being in the same state as the Patriots.
COLTS (-7) over Texans:
I know the Colts like to rest their players at the end of the season, but the Texans just aren’t any good, and the lack of big play ability from their running back corps makes them pretty one dimensional on offense forcing them to rely far too heavily on… checking my notes…Sage Rosenfels. Ugh. I’d take the Colts by 27 at home here.
Chiefs (+5) over LIONS:
I’d rather make naked snow angels face down in a box of broken glass than watch this game.
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Redskins:
Will Tavaris Jackson be the worst ever to play in the playoffs? If you can think of anyone worse, I beg you to let me know.
SAINTS (-3) over Eagles:
T-minus 8 days til the NFL hot stove league begins with the biggest question (Non Darren McFadden class) will be where will Donovan McNabb be playing next season.
BILLS (+3) over Giants:
The Giants will lose for three reasons.
Eli Manning is their Quarterback…
On the road in inclimate weather…
With Kevin Everett miraculously watching the game from the Bills sideline.
JAGUARS (-13) over Raiders:
What’s there to say about this game? The Jags are the 5th best team in the NFL, and the Raiders are …the Raiders.
Jets (+8.5) over TITANS:
Down to my last two chances to correctly pick a Titans game this year.
Bucaneers (-6) over 49ERS:
Breaking news: The 49ers are bad. Really really bad…
CARDINALS (-10) over Falcons:
And so are the Falcons.
Ravens (+10.5) over SEAHAWKS:
Just kidding.
SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Ravens:
The Ravens score less than the Raiders AND allow more points. Scary.
CHARGERS (-8.5) over Broncos:
The only team in the AFC that has allowed more points than the Broncos is the Dolphins…by 4 points. The Broncos are 2-5 on the road. Then again…Norv Turner…
Broncos (+8.5) over CHARGERS:
Norv Turner.
Last Week: 4-10 ATS Ugh.
PANTHERS (+10.5) over Cowboys:
Romo’s injured thumb gave him all kinds of trouble last week against the Eagles. You don’t see too many one dimensional teams dole out 11 point whippings.
Packers (-8.5) over BEARS:
I know this is a ‘throw out the records’ type of game. Ok, I’ll ignore the records and take the Packers because they have an immeasurably better quarterback, an improving running game, and a secondary which will allow them to put 8 in the box while playing Man on the outside. As long as the Packers don’t kick to Hester, this is a double digit win for Green Bay.
Browns (-3) over BENGALS:
Looking at the records, you’d think this is a no-brainer, right? Well let’s see. The Browns are only 3-4 on the road. Of course the Bengals are only 4-3 at home, and they’re coming off a loss to one of the two or three worst teams in the NFL in the 49ers. Alright, so it is a no-brainer after all. Though it ought to be exciting to watch if these two teams can put up the kind of numbers they did in their first meeting.
Dolphins (+22) over PATRIOTS:
I refuse to justify this game with a breakdown. Suffice it to say that the Fins should have to play LSU just to earn the privilege of being in the same state as the Patriots.
COLTS (-7) over Texans:
I know the Colts like to rest their players at the end of the season, but the Texans just aren’t any good, and the lack of big play ability from their running back corps makes them pretty one dimensional on offense forcing them to rely far too heavily on… checking my notes…Sage Rosenfels. Ugh. I’d take the Colts by 27 at home here.
Chiefs (+5) over LIONS:
I’d rather make naked snow angels face down in a box of broken glass than watch this game.
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Redskins:
Will Tavaris Jackson be the worst ever to play in the playoffs? If you can think of anyone worse, I beg you to let me know.
SAINTS (-3) over Eagles:
T-minus 8 days til the NFL hot stove league begins with the biggest question (Non Darren McFadden class) will be where will Donovan McNabb be playing next season.
BILLS (+3) over Giants:
The Giants will lose for three reasons.
Eli Manning is their Quarterback…
On the road in inclimate weather…
With Kevin Everett miraculously watching the game from the Bills sideline.
JAGUARS (-13) over Raiders:
What’s there to say about this game? The Jags are the 5th best team in the NFL, and the Raiders are …the Raiders.
Jets (+8.5) over TITANS:
Down to my last two chances to correctly pick a Titans game this year.
Bucaneers (-6) over 49ERS:
Breaking news: The 49ers are bad. Really really bad…
CARDINALS (-10) over Falcons:
And so are the Falcons.
Ravens (+10.5) over SEAHAWKS:
Just kidding.
SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Ravens:
The Ravens score less than the Raiders AND allow more points. Scary.
CHARGERS (-8.5) over Broncos:
The only team in the AFC that has allowed more points than the Broncos is the Dolphins…by 4 points. The Broncos are 2-5 on the road. Then again…Norv Turner…
Broncos (+8.5) over CHARGERS:
Norv Turner.
Last Week: 4-10 ATS Ugh.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Monday Morning Recap
Just a few thoughts from the last week:
NFL:
-Do you realize the Ravens were 44 seconds away from being the only team to beat the Patriots AND the only team to lose to the Dolphins?
-What a game in Pittsburgh. I can wait to watch it again in 3 weeks.
-Congratulations to Brett Favre on both passing Dan Marino for the career passing yards record and locking up a first round Bye.
-It's time to blow up the Bengals. How do you lose to the 49ers and their 3rd string QB? On a related note, this effectively ends my dream of Darren McFadden lining up with Maroney in a two back set for the Patriots next year. Admit it, you were terrified of this.
-Dear Falcons,
Please turn in your man cards.
Sincerely,
The Y Chromosome
-What happened to Dallas? It must be the Curse of the Quarterback's Hot Girlfriend.
-Memo to Detroit Lions Employees:
Please turn in your uniforms and all items bearing the team logo or colors Monday. We will be re-issuing these items in the new team colors: pink and powder blue. Also, please note that the new team name and helmet logo will be "Kitties."
V/r
Matt Millen
-Do the Giants scare anyone in the playoffs? Especially without Shockey?
-Did anyone have a worse day yesterday than Matt Stover.
-I apologize to all the gambling addicts out there for grossly under-estimating the number of ice balls the Patriots fans would throw at the Jets.
NCAA Football:
-Lloyd Carr's winning percentage at Michigan: 75.0%
-Rich Rodriguez's winning percentage at WVU: 69.8%
-How is this an upgrade? Especially considering Rodriguez's penchant for LOSING THE BIG GAME!? Exactly the problem for which Carr was forced to retire.
-Yes, Rodriguez's spread option offense should be successful in the Big Ten, but Defense has been Michigan's Achilles heel in recent years. How will Rodriguez have an affect on that?
-What does Ryan Mallet do? The big freshman fits in with Rodriguez's new offense like Chris Farley in a M. Night Shyamalan movie.
MLB:
-The D-Backs have to be the early favorite in the NL with the addition of Dan Haren. They still need another bat though.
-Don't forget, Arizona still has Randy Johnson; albeit coming off back surgery. If he can pitch himself into shape by September, the D-Backs could have a front 3 to rival the Indians and Red Sox come the playoffs...unless the Sox get Santana and become the baseball version of the Patriots.
-So Pettite took HGH for two days huh? Anyone really buy that? Will he receive a 50 game suspension? And if so, are the Yankees done before the season even starts if they don't get Santana?
-Clemens has to be done now right? Will they even cheer him in the Bronx after his 'roided up, $3M/win performance last year?
NFL:
-Do you realize the Ravens were 44 seconds away from being the only team to beat the Patriots AND the only team to lose to the Dolphins?
-What a game in Pittsburgh. I can wait to watch it again in 3 weeks.
-Congratulations to Brett Favre on both passing Dan Marino for the career passing yards record and locking up a first round Bye.
-It's time to blow up the Bengals. How do you lose to the 49ers and their 3rd string QB? On a related note, this effectively ends my dream of Darren McFadden lining up with Maroney in a two back set for the Patriots next year. Admit it, you were terrified of this.
-Dear Falcons,
Please turn in your man cards.
Sincerely,
The Y Chromosome
-What happened to Dallas? It must be the Curse of the Quarterback's Hot Girlfriend.
-Memo to Detroit Lions Employees:
Please turn in your uniforms and all items bearing the team logo or colors Monday. We will be re-issuing these items in the new team colors: pink and powder blue. Also, please note that the new team name and helmet logo will be "Kitties."
V/r
Matt Millen
-Do the Giants scare anyone in the playoffs? Especially without Shockey?
-Did anyone have a worse day yesterday than Matt Stover.
-I apologize to all the gambling addicts out there for grossly under-estimating the number of ice balls the Patriots fans would throw at the Jets.
NCAA Football:
-Lloyd Carr's winning percentage at Michigan: 75.0%
-Rich Rodriguez's winning percentage at WVU: 69.8%
-How is this an upgrade? Especially considering Rodriguez's penchant for LOSING THE BIG GAME!? Exactly the problem for which Carr was forced to retire.
-Yes, Rodriguez's spread option offense should be successful in the Big Ten, but Defense has been Michigan's Achilles heel in recent years. How will Rodriguez have an affect on that?
-What does Ryan Mallet do? The big freshman fits in with Rodriguez's new offense like Chris Farley in a M. Night Shyamalan movie.
MLB:
-The D-Backs have to be the early favorite in the NL with the addition of Dan Haren. They still need another bat though.
-Don't forget, Arizona still has Randy Johnson; albeit coming off back surgery. If he can pitch himself into shape by September, the D-Backs could have a front 3 to rival the Indians and Red Sox come the playoffs...unless the Sox get Santana and become the baseball version of the Patriots.
-So Pettite took HGH for two days huh? Anyone really buy that? Will he receive a 50 game suspension? And if so, are the Yankees done before the season even starts if they don't get Santana?
-Clemens has to be done now right? Will they even cheer him in the Bronx after his 'roided up, $3M/win performance last year?
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Week 15 NFL Picks
Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (HOME team in caps)
Bengals (-8) over 49ERS:
Two underachieving teams led by two young quarterbacks who’ve taken a step back this year and by coaches on the hot seat. Normally I’d think this is would be a great game between two teams desperate to survive…except that the Bengals are one of the most dysfunctional teams in pro sports, and the 49ers quit playing weeks ago. I’ll take dysfunctional talent over disinterested nobodys.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Cardinals:
The loser of this game is done. The Saints are down to their 3rd string running back. Arizona is beat up at almost every position. All that said; these have been the two most erratic teams in the NFL this year. This one is a coin flip, and if you’re betting on this game, get help.
Falcons (+12) over BUCCANEERS:
No-Brainer of the Week. The Falcons anger at Bobby Petrino’s cowardly departure spurs them to their best performance of the year. Besides do you really trust Jeff Garcia to cover a 12 point spread?
DOLPHINS (+3) over Ravens:
The Dolphins aren’t just going to cover, they are going to WIN! Because if they don’t…
Bills (+5.5) over BROWNS:
This is the play in game for the AFC playoffs. I can’t wait for this game. It should be the most exciting of the week. It should be a bit of a shoot-out with the 30th and 32nd ranked Defenses squaring off. The team with the ball last should win. That’ll be the Browns but only by a field goal.
Packers (-7.5) over Rams:
Brett Favre versus Brock Berlin. ‘Nuff said.
STEELERS (-3.5) over Jaguars:
This one is tough because it really doesn’t mean much. The Steelers loss last week all but relegates them to the 3rd or 4th seed, and the Jags have pretty much locked up the 5 position. These teams could see each other again in round one, so I expect very vanilla game plans from both teams.
PATRIOTS (+22.5) over Jets:
The forecast is getting better by the hour as it appears the Nor’easter isn’t going to be quite as bad as we were initially led to believe. Besides, this isn’t Pittsburgh. The Pats installed artificial turf a couple years back so footing won’t be nearly the issue it was a couple Mondays back. It you don’t think the Jets are praying for the heavens to open up and dump a couple of feet of snow in front of the Patriots receivers you’re kidding yourself. A couple side bets to consider: I’m setting the over/under for numbers for slush balls thrown at Jets players and coaches at 500, and number of punches thrown by Belichick and Mangini in lieu of a hand shake is set at 4.5.
Seahawks (-7) over PANTHERS:
The Panthers really had a chance to trap the Jags last week. Instead they got blown apart. The Panthers are done. I wouldn’t expect anything out of them the rest of the way.
CHIEFS (+4) over Titans:
It took an act of God for me to maintain my streak of picking the wrong way in all Tennessee games this year. I’ll take the chiefs in December at Arrowhead, so RUN to put your money on the Titans.
Colts (-10.5) over RAIDERS:
You don’t need me to tell you what’s going to happen in this game.
CHARGERS (-9.5) over Lions:
This collapse by the Detroit has been amazing. Last week has to be the last straw. I’d be surprised if the Lions even make the flight to San Diego.
COWBOYS (-9.5) over Eagles:
Kevin Kolb starts next week. You heard it here first.
GIANTS (-4) over Redskins:
I hate Eli Manning. I really do. How many fantasy seasons has he ruined? Why are these Giants spreads always so tempting? This game makes me want to hurt myself.
Last Week: 7-9 ATS After a rare winning week, right back to my losing ways.
Bengals (-8) over 49ERS:
Two underachieving teams led by two young quarterbacks who’ve taken a step back this year and by coaches on the hot seat. Normally I’d think this is would be a great game between two teams desperate to survive…except that the Bengals are one of the most dysfunctional teams in pro sports, and the 49ers quit playing weeks ago. I’ll take dysfunctional talent over disinterested nobodys.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Cardinals:
The loser of this game is done. The Saints are down to their 3rd string running back. Arizona is beat up at almost every position. All that said; these have been the two most erratic teams in the NFL this year. This one is a coin flip, and if you’re betting on this game, get help.
Falcons (+12) over BUCCANEERS:
No-Brainer of the Week. The Falcons anger at Bobby Petrino’s cowardly departure spurs them to their best performance of the year. Besides do you really trust Jeff Garcia to cover a 12 point spread?
DOLPHINS (+3) over Ravens:
The Dolphins aren’t just going to cover, they are going to WIN! Because if they don’t…
Bills (+5.5) over BROWNS:
This is the play in game for the AFC playoffs. I can’t wait for this game. It should be the most exciting of the week. It should be a bit of a shoot-out with the 30th and 32nd ranked Defenses squaring off. The team with the ball last should win. That’ll be the Browns but only by a field goal.
Packers (-7.5) over Rams:
Brett Favre versus Brock Berlin. ‘Nuff said.
STEELERS (-3.5) over Jaguars:
This one is tough because it really doesn’t mean much. The Steelers loss last week all but relegates them to the 3rd or 4th seed, and the Jags have pretty much locked up the 5 position. These teams could see each other again in round one, so I expect very vanilla game plans from both teams.
PATRIOTS (+22.5) over Jets:
The forecast is getting better by the hour as it appears the Nor’easter isn’t going to be quite as bad as we were initially led to believe. Besides, this isn’t Pittsburgh. The Pats installed artificial turf a couple years back so footing won’t be nearly the issue it was a couple Mondays back. It you don’t think the Jets are praying for the heavens to open up and dump a couple of feet of snow in front of the Patriots receivers you’re kidding yourself. A couple side bets to consider: I’m setting the over/under for numbers for slush balls thrown at Jets players and coaches at 500, and number of punches thrown by Belichick and Mangini in lieu of a hand shake is set at 4.5.
Seahawks (-7) over PANTHERS:
The Panthers really had a chance to trap the Jags last week. Instead they got blown apart. The Panthers are done. I wouldn’t expect anything out of them the rest of the way.
CHIEFS (+4) over Titans:
It took an act of God for me to maintain my streak of picking the wrong way in all Tennessee games this year. I’ll take the chiefs in December at Arrowhead, so RUN to put your money on the Titans.
Colts (-10.5) over RAIDERS:
You don’t need me to tell you what’s going to happen in this game.
CHARGERS (-9.5) over Lions:
This collapse by the Detroit has been amazing. Last week has to be the last straw. I’d be surprised if the Lions even make the flight to San Diego.
COWBOYS (-9.5) over Eagles:
Kevin Kolb starts next week. You heard it here first.
GIANTS (-4) over Redskins:
I hate Eli Manning. I really do. How many fantasy seasons has he ruined? Why are these Giants spreads always so tempting? This game makes me want to hurt myself.
Last Week: 7-9 ATS After a rare winning week, right back to my losing ways.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Mayweather Hatton Recap
Just a few thoughts from the most exciting fight in a long time...
-Did anyone catch Larry Merchant say that he wasn't paying attention to the Peter Manfredo v. Jeff Lacy fight? I'm waiting for John Madden to make a similar admission in the near future.
-Did anyone know that Tom Jones is British?
-Just when I was ready to cheer for Hatton the underdog, the British fans, sounding like the student section at a Duke v. UNC game, started booing the National Anthem and Mayweather came out to Born in the USA. What can I say, I'm a sucker for patriotism. But on a related note, when Tyrese heard the booing, didn't he look like he was about to pull on a maroon beret and call down an airstrike on the offending Brits?
-Was Mayweather wearing felt shorts? WTF!?
-Hatton's cut-man is a London taxi driver...Awesome!
-The first 8 rounds looked like Rocky, and the last two rounds looked like Rocky III.
On a totally unrelated topic, Eric Gagne signed a 1 year deal for $10M with the Brewers. On behalf of all of New England, I'd like to say: Sorry Brewers fans, but thanks for the sandwich pick.
-Did anyone catch Larry Merchant say that he wasn't paying attention to the Peter Manfredo v. Jeff Lacy fight? I'm waiting for John Madden to make a similar admission in the near future.
-Did anyone know that Tom Jones is British?
-Just when I was ready to cheer for Hatton the underdog, the British fans, sounding like the student section at a Duke v. UNC game, started booing the National Anthem and Mayweather came out to Born in the USA. What can I say, I'm a sucker for patriotism. But on a related note, when Tyrese heard the booing, didn't he look like he was about to pull on a maroon beret and call down an airstrike on the offending Brits?
-Was Mayweather wearing felt shorts? WTF!?
-Hatton's cut-man is a London taxi driver...Awesome!
-The first 8 rounds looked like Rocky, and the last two rounds looked like Rocky III.
On a totally unrelated topic, Eric Gagne signed a 1 year deal for $10M with the Brewers. On behalf of all of New England, I'd like to say: Sorry Brewers fans, but thanks for the sandwich pick.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Week 14 NFL Picks B
Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread B (HOME teams in caps)
Cowboys (-10.5) over LIONS:
The free-fall continues for Kitna and the Fighting Simbas. After getting dismantled last week by the best running back tandem in the league, this week they get the second best pair supported by an excellent passing attack and a stout defense. It looks like a blow-out which the way my predictions have gone this year means the Lions will win this one. Oh well, live by the sword… I’ll take the ‘Boys on the road by a ton.
BILLS (-7) over Dolphins:
Is there anything left to say about the Dolphins at this point? How about this: John Beck has thrown for 418 yards in his 3 starts for Miami…combined… with zero touchdowns and 3 INTs. In fact, the Dolphins have not scored an offensive touchdown passing or rushing with Beck at the helm. Matt Ryan to Miami #1 overall in April?
Giants (+2.5) over EAGLES:
I’ve gotten to the point where I need to wash my hands after picking the Giants to win games. Betting on Eli just makes me feel dirty. But the spreads are just so enticing week after week… I bet this is how crack feels.
Panthers (+10.5) over JAGUARS:
This game screams TRAP!!! A tough loss last week to Indy effectively knocks them to Wild Card status, and with the Steelers looming next week, the Jags are ripe for the picking. Too bad they’re playing the Ageless Wonder Vinny T and the toothless Panthers. I really can’t think of any reason to pick the Panthers other than I just can’t pick the Jags this week.
TITANS (PK) over Chargers:
I have made the wrong pick in every Titans game this year. No kidding. So this week I decided to get scientific about the process. I flipped a coin…and it bounced so that it was leaning against the wall. I can’t make this stuff up. The second time I flipped it, it came up heads, which I predetermined to be the Titans. My advise to you is to pick the Chargers.
BENGALS (-7) over Rams:
I was all set to pick the Rams in this one. Then I heard that Marc Bulger will be out meaning Brock Berlin (aka the guy who couldn’t take the starting job away from Rex Grossman at Florida) will start at QB for the Rams. In much the same way that the only job worse than crack-whore is assistant crack-whore (thank you Norm McDonald) the only QB worse than Rex Grossman is the back-up to Rex Grossman.
THE SPORTSMAN OF THE YEAR (and his merry men) (-10.5) over Raiders:
If you picked Justin Fargas in your Fantasy draft you’re probably smiling. Justin Fargas is ninth in the league in rushing. Of course if you picked Justin Fargas in your fantasy draft everyone else in the room probably looked at you like you were the girl who picked the 13 seed to make the Elite 8 because she like the color scheme of their uniforms. In fact, according to ESPN.com, Justin Fargas is only owned in 86.5% of leagues even now. If Justin Fargas is available in your league, go pick Justin Fargas up! (you may have noticed I’ve typed Justin Fargas’ full name seven times now, this is because this is probably the most pub. Justin Fargas(8) has received since high school and I want you to remember Justin Fargas’(9) name long enough to add Justin Fargas (10) to your fantasy team) None of this will matter as Favre has apparently awakened the spirits of Packers past, and there’s no way they lose again before arriving in Dallas for the NFC Championship game.
Steelers (+10.5) over PATRIOTS:
I would have taken the Steelers straight up against the Pats until Anthony Smith made the weakest guarantee in sports history. First of all, who is Anthony Smith? Secondly, if you’re going to guarantee a win, don’t follow your guarantee by saying (paraphrased) ‘as long as everything goes right and we play the way we’re capable and the offense and special teams don’t screw us then we’ll win.’ Why don’t you just say that if you hold them to fewer points than your offense scores you’ll win? How about you leave the trash talk to the guys who have started for more than a month? Ass.
Buccaneers (-3) over TEXANS:
Garcia is back, and Matt Schaub has a glass jaw. Ahman Green is on IR and Ron Dayne is awful in goal line situations despite weighing 245 pounds and has no burst at the second level. As with most other games this season, it’s not so much that the Bucs are good as that they are playing teams devoid of talent.
Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS:
I can’t explain this one. On paper, the Seahawks should win easily. But they didn’t win in week 2 in Arizona, and while the ‘Hawks might win, I don’t think they will cover this week.
49ERS (+8.5) over Vikings:
You can’t give a one dimensional team like the Vikings more than a touchdown on the road… even against a team as bad as San Fran. In case you didn’t know, the 49ers have the tie-breaker against the other 3-9 teams for the #2 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. That pick belongs to the Patriots. Can you imagine the Pats going 19-0 and then adding Darren McFadden? That just doesn’t seem fair.
Browns (-3.5) over JETS:
No brainer. How do the Vikings give 8.5 on the road while the Browns only give 3.5 against equally awful teams? How is a 7-5 team only a 3.5 point favorite against a team who is 3-9 with two of those wins coming against the Dolphins?
Chiefs (+6.5) over BRONCOS:
This is the Masochist Game of the Week. You have to really hate yourself to watch or bet on this game.
Colts (-9) over RAVENS:
There’s no way Kyle Boller and Willis McGahee have the games of their lives in consecutive weeks. And that’s what it would take to keep this game close.
Saints (-4) over FALCONS:
This game is why they need to wait until the pre-season to decide which games will be on MNF each week. Did anyone think this would be a good game after Vick’s suspension? And now that the Saints have lost both starting running backs, we can’t even hope for an explosive blowout. Saints win 17-12.
Last Week: 9-7 ATS
Cowboys (-10.5) over LIONS:
The free-fall continues for Kitna and the Fighting Simbas. After getting dismantled last week by the best running back tandem in the league, this week they get the second best pair supported by an excellent passing attack and a stout defense. It looks like a blow-out which the way my predictions have gone this year means the Lions will win this one. Oh well, live by the sword… I’ll take the ‘Boys on the road by a ton.
BILLS (-7) over Dolphins:
Is there anything left to say about the Dolphins at this point? How about this: John Beck has thrown for 418 yards in his 3 starts for Miami…combined… with zero touchdowns and 3 INTs. In fact, the Dolphins have not scored an offensive touchdown passing or rushing with Beck at the helm. Matt Ryan to Miami #1 overall in April?
Giants (+2.5) over EAGLES:
I’ve gotten to the point where I need to wash my hands after picking the Giants to win games. Betting on Eli just makes me feel dirty. But the spreads are just so enticing week after week… I bet this is how crack feels.
Panthers (+10.5) over JAGUARS:
This game screams TRAP!!! A tough loss last week to Indy effectively knocks them to Wild Card status, and with the Steelers looming next week, the Jags are ripe for the picking. Too bad they’re playing the Ageless Wonder Vinny T and the toothless Panthers. I really can’t think of any reason to pick the Panthers other than I just can’t pick the Jags this week.
TITANS (PK) over Chargers:
I have made the wrong pick in every Titans game this year. No kidding. So this week I decided to get scientific about the process. I flipped a coin…and it bounced so that it was leaning against the wall. I can’t make this stuff up. The second time I flipped it, it came up heads, which I predetermined to be the Titans. My advise to you is to pick the Chargers.
BENGALS (-7) over Rams:
I was all set to pick the Rams in this one. Then I heard that Marc Bulger will be out meaning Brock Berlin (aka the guy who couldn’t take the starting job away from Rex Grossman at Florida) will start at QB for the Rams. In much the same way that the only job worse than crack-whore is assistant crack-whore (thank you Norm McDonald) the only QB worse than Rex Grossman is the back-up to Rex Grossman.
THE SPORTSMAN OF THE YEAR (and his merry men) (-10.5) over Raiders:
If you picked Justin Fargas in your Fantasy draft you’re probably smiling. Justin Fargas is ninth in the league in rushing. Of course if you picked Justin Fargas in your fantasy draft everyone else in the room probably looked at you like you were the girl who picked the 13 seed to make the Elite 8 because she like the color scheme of their uniforms. In fact, according to ESPN.com, Justin Fargas is only owned in 86.5% of leagues even now. If Justin Fargas is available in your league, go pick Justin Fargas up! (you may have noticed I’ve typed Justin Fargas’ full name seven times now, this is because this is probably the most pub. Justin Fargas(8) has received since high school and I want you to remember Justin Fargas’(9) name long enough to add Justin Fargas (10) to your fantasy team) None of this will matter as Favre has apparently awakened the spirits of Packers past, and there’s no way they lose again before arriving in Dallas for the NFC Championship game.
Steelers (+10.5) over PATRIOTS:
I would have taken the Steelers straight up against the Pats until Anthony Smith made the weakest guarantee in sports history. First of all, who is Anthony Smith? Secondly, if you’re going to guarantee a win, don’t follow your guarantee by saying (paraphrased) ‘as long as everything goes right and we play the way we’re capable and the offense and special teams don’t screw us then we’ll win.’ Why don’t you just say that if you hold them to fewer points than your offense scores you’ll win? How about you leave the trash talk to the guys who have started for more than a month? Ass.
Buccaneers (-3) over TEXANS:
Garcia is back, and Matt Schaub has a glass jaw. Ahman Green is on IR and Ron Dayne is awful in goal line situations despite weighing 245 pounds and has no burst at the second level. As with most other games this season, it’s not so much that the Bucs are good as that they are playing teams devoid of talent.
Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS:
I can’t explain this one. On paper, the Seahawks should win easily. But they didn’t win in week 2 in Arizona, and while the ‘Hawks might win, I don’t think they will cover this week.
49ERS (+8.5) over Vikings:
You can’t give a one dimensional team like the Vikings more than a touchdown on the road… even against a team as bad as San Fran. In case you didn’t know, the 49ers have the tie-breaker against the other 3-9 teams for the #2 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. That pick belongs to the Patriots. Can you imagine the Pats going 19-0 and then adding Darren McFadden? That just doesn’t seem fair.
Browns (-3.5) over JETS:
No brainer. How do the Vikings give 8.5 on the road while the Browns only give 3.5 against equally awful teams? How is a 7-5 team only a 3.5 point favorite against a team who is 3-9 with two of those wins coming against the Dolphins?
Chiefs (+6.5) over BRONCOS:
This is the Masochist Game of the Week. You have to really hate yourself to watch or bet on this game.
Colts (-9) over RAVENS:
There’s no way Kyle Boller and Willis McGahee have the games of their lives in consecutive weeks. And that’s what it would take to keep this game close.
Saints (-4) over FALCONS:
This game is why they need to wait until the pre-season to decide which games will be on MNF each week. Did anyone think this would be a good game after Vick’s suspension? And now that the Saints have lost both starting running backs, we can’t even hope for an explosive blowout. Saints win 17-12.
Last Week: 9-7 ATS
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Week 14 NFL Picks A and other stuff...
Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread A (HOME team in caps)
Bears (+3) over REDSKINS:
Yet another example of the Super Bowl losers’ curse rears its’ ugly head. Injuries have decimated the Bears secondary, and Rex Grossman would have to run the table to have any chance at being a Bear next year. Cedric Benson is officially a bust. On the other hand, after a 4-2 start, the Redskins have lost 5 of 6 (including 4 straight) and are an overtime win against the lowly J-E-T-S (lose-lose-lose) from a 6 game losing streak. Last week the ‘Skins had emotion on their side, but a last second field goal crushed their spirit. I think both of these teams are done, but Joe Gibbs probably lost his team at the end of last weeks game, and I don’t see them recovering in a short week made shorter by Sean Taylor’s funeral. On a side note: if the Skins lose this game they will end the season on an eight game losing streak with games at the Giants and Vikes before finishing at home with Dallas.
Other Thoughts:
1. The Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade makes the Detroit Tigers a legit power in the American League. But does it really make them the favorite? Remember the Yankees have had the most potent lineup in baseball for several years and they haven't made it to the World Series since 2003, and even that required a herculean effort in their comeback in game 7 of the ALCS and more importantly Grady Little making the worst coaching move since Bob Stanley entered game 6 of the 1986 World Series. For all the Tigers offensive firepower in 2008, we have seen that it is pitching that wins championships. The Tigers will have exactly ZERO starting pitchers next year who are coming off of a season in which they posted an ERA under 3.60. They have two starters coming off seasons with an ERA over 4.00, and two more coming off seasons with an ERA over 5.00, and one of those (Willis) did it in the National League in which you really only need to pitch to 7.5 guys in the lineup.
2. Yohan Santana hasn't been moved much to my surprise. The Twins MUST trade him or re-sign him before the season starts. No way they will get nearly the package back at the deadline because they won't be able to offer him up as a guy you can re-sign just months before hitting the open market. I still think he'll get traded, especially with the strength of the AL Central, but if the Twins are thinking to compete, then they best get moving. They will have to sign Barry Bonds to DH and Aaron Rowand to play CF. They'll need to go get Carlos Silva, and probably an arm or two for the pen. These moves would cost in the $100 million neighborhood for the lives of these contracts. Basically, with as cheap as the Twins have been, there's no way they'll make the moves necessary to make a run in the Central. Now if they resign Santana for 6 years $135 million, they might (though I doubt it) be in position to make a run at a serious bat in a few years when they've got the added revenue from the new stadium. But by then, Santana will be in his mid-30's, and they'll have to pay Morneau and Mauer too. I just don't see it. Maybe they are waiting for someone to get desperate, but I think the Twins have badly misplayed their hand here. They had the Red Sox ready to give up 5 players including 3 or 4 guys who would make the Opening Day 2008 roster and couldn't pull the trigger. They were going to get 95 cents on the dollar at least, and now they'll be lucky to get 80 cents on the dollar. Less if they wait til after Opening Day.
3. I'll give you the 2007 lines of a pair of Gold Glove caliber center fielders.
85 runs, 28 SB, 7 3B, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 28 SB, .268 BA, .712 OPS
83 runs, 27 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 5 SB, .222 BA, .724 OPS
Which would you rather have? Now if I told you that the first guy would make $10 million over the next two year and the other would make $36.2 million. Is anyone not taking the first guy? The first guy is Coco Crisp, and the Dodgers just paid more 3.5 times as much for the same amount of time and pretty much the same stat line trading steals and batting average for home runs. The RBI are more a factor of where these guys batted in their respective lineups. With the way this deal will drive up the contract values of guys like Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, did Coco's value just rise considerably in the trade discussion with the Twins about Santana?
Bears (+3) over REDSKINS:
Yet another example of the Super Bowl losers’ curse rears its’ ugly head. Injuries have decimated the Bears secondary, and Rex Grossman would have to run the table to have any chance at being a Bear next year. Cedric Benson is officially a bust. On the other hand, after a 4-2 start, the Redskins have lost 5 of 6 (including 4 straight) and are an overtime win against the lowly J-E-T-S (lose-lose-lose) from a 6 game losing streak. Last week the ‘Skins had emotion on their side, but a last second field goal crushed their spirit. I think both of these teams are done, but Joe Gibbs probably lost his team at the end of last weeks game, and I don’t see them recovering in a short week made shorter by Sean Taylor’s funeral. On a side note: if the Skins lose this game they will end the season on an eight game losing streak with games at the Giants and Vikes before finishing at home with Dallas.
Other Thoughts:
1. The Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade makes the Detroit Tigers a legit power in the American League. But does it really make them the favorite? Remember the Yankees have had the most potent lineup in baseball for several years and they haven't made it to the World Series since 2003, and even that required a herculean effort in their comeback in game 7 of the ALCS and more importantly Grady Little making the worst coaching move since Bob Stanley entered game 6 of the 1986 World Series. For all the Tigers offensive firepower in 2008, we have seen that it is pitching that wins championships. The Tigers will have exactly ZERO starting pitchers next year who are coming off of a season in which they posted an ERA under 3.60. They have two starters coming off seasons with an ERA over 4.00, and two more coming off seasons with an ERA over 5.00, and one of those (Willis) did it in the National League in which you really only need to pitch to 7.5 guys in the lineup.
2. Yohan Santana hasn't been moved much to my surprise. The Twins MUST trade him or re-sign him before the season starts. No way they will get nearly the package back at the deadline because they won't be able to offer him up as a guy you can re-sign just months before hitting the open market. I still think he'll get traded, especially with the strength of the AL Central, but if the Twins are thinking to compete, then they best get moving. They will have to sign Barry Bonds to DH and Aaron Rowand to play CF. They'll need to go get Carlos Silva, and probably an arm or two for the pen. These moves would cost in the $100 million neighborhood for the lives of these contracts. Basically, with as cheap as the Twins have been, there's no way they'll make the moves necessary to make a run in the Central. Now if they resign Santana for 6 years $135 million, they might (though I doubt it) be in position to make a run at a serious bat in a few years when they've got the added revenue from the new stadium. But by then, Santana will be in his mid-30's, and they'll have to pay Morneau and Mauer too. I just don't see it. Maybe they are waiting for someone to get desperate, but I think the Twins have badly misplayed their hand here. They had the Red Sox ready to give up 5 players including 3 or 4 guys who would make the Opening Day 2008 roster and couldn't pull the trigger. They were going to get 95 cents on the dollar at least, and now they'll be lucky to get 80 cents on the dollar. Less if they wait til after Opening Day.
3. I'll give you the 2007 lines of a pair of Gold Glove caliber center fielders.
85 runs, 28 SB, 7 3B, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 28 SB, .268 BA, .712 OPS
83 runs, 27 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 5 SB, .222 BA, .724 OPS
Which would you rather have? Now if I told you that the first guy would make $10 million over the next two year and the other would make $36.2 million. Is anyone not taking the first guy? The first guy is Coco Crisp, and the Dodgers just paid more 3.5 times as much for the same amount of time and pretty much the same stat line trading steals and batting average for home runs. The RBI are more a factor of where these guys batted in their respective lineups. With the way this deal will drive up the contract values of guys like Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, did Coco's value just rise considerably in the trade discussion with the Twins about Santana?
Saturday, December 1, 2007
MLB Winter Meetings Preview
Dan Haren’s name has been tossed around as a “cheaper” alternative to Santana, possibly for the team that comes in second in the Santana Sweepstakes. Allow me to be perfectly clear: F#$% THAT! (Ok, maybe all the non-letter symbols isn't perfectly clear, but if you don't get it leave your email address in the comments and I'll explain further) On the surface, this looks ok. Last year, Haren went 15-9, Santana went 15-13. Haren’s ERA was 3.07, Santana’s was 3.33. Haren threw 222 innings to Santana’s 219. But if you dig a little deeper, these two pitchers aren’t close to equal. Alright, Haren had an awesome first half last year (10-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .205 BAA). But his second half (5-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .298 BAA) was mediocre at best. While Santana was consistent in a down year, Haren was all over the place posting an ERA over 4.00 in three months while posting an ERA under 1.70 in two months. Neither pitcher was good down the stretch in September. A closer look though shows that Santana’s WHIP barely budged after the break (from 1.01 to 1.12), and while Haren’s BAA jumped by nearly 50%, Santana’s moved by less than 10 % after the Break. Yes, Haren is locked up for the next three years (~$16M) for less than 1 year of Santana will cost after a new deal is worked out, but the A’s are expecting a prospect package similar to that which Santana will draw. As a Red Sox fan I can only say that I hope that anyone but the Yankees gets Santana just so that Hank and George Steinbrenner will be that much more motivated to over-pay for Haren.
On to some of my expectations for the winter meetings…
Chances* That Player X Will Be Traded:
Johan Santana 90%
Miguel Cabrera 67%
Miguel Tejada 33%
Ervin Santana 80%
Coco Crisp 95%
Erik Bedard 25%
Dan Haren 50%
Joe Blanton 10%
Jon Lester 40%
Clay Buchholz 40%
Juan Uribe 100%
Gerald Laird 33%
Luke Scott 50%
Ben Broussard 40%
Chris Capuano 33%
Joe Nathan 50%
Scott Rolen 45%
Jacoby Ellsbury 4%
Jonny Gomes 10%
Cliff Lee 25%
Scott Kazmir 1%
Manny Ramirez 1%
*Note all numbers are based on virtually nothing
Santana is going to be the key in the winter meetings. If/when he gets dealt; floodgates on deals will burst wide open.
A few scenarios:
If someone other than the Angels lands Santana, then LA of Anaheim will be clear to unload for Miguel Cabrera. And as soon as Cabrera goes, expect the trigger to be quick for someone to acquire Scott Rolen.
If the Red Sox land Santana, expect the Hank Steinbrenner to promise his first born son to get Dan Haren, and another pitcher from the Joe Blanton, Erik Bedard, AJ Burnett, Ervin Santana class too.
If the Yankees land Santana, they will know what they have available to trade for someone from the Blanton, Bedard, Burnett, E. Santana group. Here’s a side thought: anyone else think Andy Petitte is just waiting to see how the Santana situation unfolds to decide if he wants to come back. Why come back at his age and health status to pitch his heart out only to have the other 4 guys in the rotation get shelled night in, night out? The Yankees acquisition of Santana would also allow the Red Sox to either move on to the possibility of a Haren trade (hopefully not) as well as allowing them to start filling out their bench (since they will have a better idea of their available payroll) and look for another home for Coco Crisp.
Just for fun, I’ll start another trade rumor that has about a .0001% chance of happening:
To Minnesota (from): 2B/SS Tony Granadillo(B-AA), CF Willy Tavarez (C), 3B Garret Atkins (C), SP Michael Bowden (B-AA) & SP Jon Lester (B)
To Colorado (from): SP Justin Masterson (B-AA), SS Jed Lowrie (B-AA), CF Coco Crisp (B) & RP Craig Hansen (B-AAA)
To Boston (from): RP Brian Fuentes (C), C Chris Ianetta (C) & SP Johan Santana (M)
Why it could work:
Tavarez, Atkins, Bowden and Lester would all be on the Twins 25 man roster on opening day, and Granadillo could be there by the All-Star Break in 2009.
Masterson would be in the rotation for Colorado on Opening Day 2008 . Crisp's ability to hit a steadier diet of fastballs would allow him to replace Tavarez (who was never able to hold onto an every day job anyway). Lowrie would be the spring training favorite to start at 2B with the departure of Kaz Matsui, and Hansen would be on the short list to work the 7th or 8th in Coors. Trading Atkins at peak value (pre-arbitration) would allow the Rockies to move Ian Stewart into the every day lineup at 3B. Resigning Yorvit Torrealba for two years with a team option for a third allows the Rockies to deal Ianetta while waiting to see if Edwin Bellorin can put together another season like 2007 at AAA Colorado Springs. Fuentes lost his closer job to Manny Corpas and the Rockies need to dump his salary($3.5M in 2007).
Santana is obvious for Boston, while Ianetta would be the ideal understudy and eventual replacement for Varitek and Fuentes would allow the Sox to deal or drop inconsistent Javier Lopez.
On to some of my expectations for the winter meetings…
Chances* That Player X Will Be Traded:
Johan Santana 90%
Miguel Cabrera 67%
Miguel Tejada 33%
Ervin Santana 80%
Coco Crisp 95%
Erik Bedard 25%
Dan Haren 50%
Joe Blanton 10%
Jon Lester 40%
Clay Buchholz 40%
Juan Uribe 100%
Gerald Laird 33%
Luke Scott 50%
Ben Broussard 40%
Chris Capuano 33%
Joe Nathan 50%
Scott Rolen 45%
Jacoby Ellsbury 4%
Jonny Gomes 10%
Cliff Lee 25%
Scott Kazmir 1%
Manny Ramirez 1%
*Note all numbers are based on virtually nothing
Santana is going to be the key in the winter meetings. If/when he gets dealt; floodgates on deals will burst wide open.
A few scenarios:
If someone other than the Angels lands Santana, then LA of Anaheim will be clear to unload for Miguel Cabrera. And as soon as Cabrera goes, expect the trigger to be quick for someone to acquire Scott Rolen.
If the Red Sox land Santana, expect the Hank Steinbrenner to promise his first born son to get Dan Haren, and another pitcher from the Joe Blanton, Erik Bedard, AJ Burnett, Ervin Santana class too.
If the Yankees land Santana, they will know what they have available to trade for someone from the Blanton, Bedard, Burnett, E. Santana group. Here’s a side thought: anyone else think Andy Petitte is just waiting to see how the Santana situation unfolds to decide if he wants to come back. Why come back at his age and health status to pitch his heart out only to have the other 4 guys in the rotation get shelled night in, night out? The Yankees acquisition of Santana would also allow the Red Sox to either move on to the possibility of a Haren trade (hopefully not) as well as allowing them to start filling out their bench (since they will have a better idea of their available payroll) and look for another home for Coco Crisp.
Just for fun, I’ll start another trade rumor that has about a .0001% chance of happening:
To Minnesota (from): 2B/SS Tony Granadillo(B-AA), CF Willy Tavarez (C), 3B Garret Atkins (C), SP Michael Bowden (B-AA) & SP Jon Lester (B)
To Colorado (from): SP Justin Masterson (B-AA), SS Jed Lowrie (B-AA), CF Coco Crisp (B) & RP Craig Hansen (B-AAA)
To Boston (from): RP Brian Fuentes (C), C Chris Ianetta (C) & SP Johan Santana (M)
Why it could work:
Tavarez, Atkins, Bowden and Lester would all be on the Twins 25 man roster on opening day, and Granadillo could be there by the All-Star Break in 2009.
Masterson would be in the rotation for Colorado on Opening Day 2008 . Crisp's ability to hit a steadier diet of fastballs would allow him to replace Tavarez (who was never able to hold onto an every day job anyway). Lowrie would be the spring training favorite to start at 2B with the departure of Kaz Matsui, and Hansen would be on the short list to work the 7th or 8th in Coors. Trading Atkins at peak value (pre-arbitration) would allow the Rockies to move Ian Stewart into the every day lineup at 3B. Resigning Yorvit Torrealba for two years with a team option for a third allows the Rockies to deal Ianetta while waiting to see if Edwin Bellorin can put together another season like 2007 at AAA Colorado Springs. Fuentes lost his closer job to Manny Corpas and the Rockies need to dump his salary($3.5M in 2007).
Santana is obvious for Boston, while Ianetta would be the ideal understudy and eventual replacement for Varitek and Fuentes would allow the Sox to deal or drop inconsistent Javier Lopez.
Week 13 NFL Picks
Week 13 Against the Spread (HOME team in caps)
Lions (+3.5) over VIKINGS:
I hate this game. The free-falling Lions v. the suddenly luke-warm Vikes. If AP isn’t playing, this is a no-brainer, but he is playing. I don’t like it, but I’ll take the points against Tavaris Jackson.
RAMS (-3) over Falcons:
Frerotte v. Harrington. If you bet on this game you have a gambling problem. Get help.
Texans (+4) over TITANS:
I’ve bet on the Vince Young who only wins games three weeks in a row. Apparently he retired after his rookie season. He couldn’t even keep it close against the Bengals. I’ll bet against him and the Titans will win by two touchdowns. That’s the way this year is going.
Jets (+1) over DOLPHINS:
So much for the “Man-genius.” A year after going to the playoffs, the Jets are an underdog to a 0-11 team.
REDSKINS (-5.5) over Bills:
See Rams v. Falcons.
CHARGERS (-5.5) over Chiefs:
The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7, and the Chiefs are coming off of a loss to the Raiders. ‘Nuff said.
Jaguars (+6.5) over COLTS:
This game should decide the AFC South. The Colts are beat up on both sides of the ball, and Harrison will not play again this week. David Garrard’s decision making has been Manning/Brady-esque in recent weeks. My heart says Jags, but my brain says Colts. Can you imagine the Colts as a Wild Card team? Me neither, but I’ll take the points as the Jags keep it close only to lose late on a Vinatieri field goal.
Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES:
A week after coaching the game of his life, Andy Reid makes one of the worst coaching decisions of his career: benching the hot hand…alright, how about warm hand… in AJ Feeley to trot out a walking wounded Donovan McNabb. McNabb will be on the bench by the half, but the Eagles will be down two scores or more, and even the great …uh…slightly better than mediocre AJ Feeley won’t be able to lead them back.
Fantasy Note: Shawn Alexander is back for this game, but expect him to be a decoy and Maurice Morris will still do most of the heavy lifting.
PANTHERS (-3) over 49ers:
Vinny T v. Trent Dilfer. See Redskins v. Bills… catching onto the theme yet? This week sucks.
SAINTS (-3) over Buccaneers:
I feel queasy betting on Jeff Garcia under the best of circumstances. But as a game time decision? When the backup QB options are some guy out of Toledo that you’ve never heard of (sporting a 52.4 QB rating) and the lesser of the McCown brothers… gotta go with the Saints in this one.
Browns (PK) over CARDINALS:
How is the over/under on this game not in the 80’s. 1,000 yards of total combined offense isn’t a possibility, it’s a probability. This has 45-42 written all over it. I’ll take the Browns in the most exciting game of the day.
RAIDERS (+3.5) over Broncos:
My future niece (due in about 5 months) just used Morse code to ask why Mike Shanahan is kicking to Devin Hester. The Broncos will fail to right the ship after last week’s gut wrenching loss.
Giants (-1.5) over BEARS:
Another battle between quarterbacks I refuse to bet on. Still, how is this line so close? As long as the Giants learn from Mike Shanahan’s mistakes, this is a double digit victory for the “G-men”.
STEELERS (-7) over Bengals:
The Steelers have already won by 11 in Cincy. The Steelers are also looking to bounce back from a couple sub standard weeks against bad teams.
Patriots (-20.5) over RAVENS:
The Pats are 9-2 against the spread. The Ravens offense is abysmal. In fact the Ravens may want to dress two punters for this game. Sam Koch could be the first ever punter to suffer from a tired leg from all the work he’s going to get.
Last Week: 7-9 ATS
For those of you who don’t know, Bill Simmons did a Marathon Live Chat to benefit the Jimmy V Foundation on ESPN.com 28 Nov. This was a question and Bill’s answer. The next day, the Knicks lost 104-59 to the Celtics…
Otis (Toronto, ON): This is dedication: 1. Start your chat at the office while closing door to office and declaring a "brainstorming session" 2. Continue on the commmute home via blackberry 3. Continue chat on the home computer, taking breaks for smokes and steaks that being said, how close are we to having the Knicks banished to the WNBA?
Bill Simmons: (12:29 PM ET ) That a boy, Otis! I like the idea of banishing the Knicks to the WNBA - Renaldo Balkman would be the 10th most attractive player in the league.
Lions (+3.5) over VIKINGS:
I hate this game. The free-falling Lions v. the suddenly luke-warm Vikes. If AP isn’t playing, this is a no-brainer, but he is playing. I don’t like it, but I’ll take the points against Tavaris Jackson.
RAMS (-3) over Falcons:
Frerotte v. Harrington. If you bet on this game you have a gambling problem. Get help.
Texans (+4) over TITANS:
I’ve bet on the Vince Young who only wins games three weeks in a row. Apparently he retired after his rookie season. He couldn’t even keep it close against the Bengals. I’ll bet against him and the Titans will win by two touchdowns. That’s the way this year is going.
Jets (+1) over DOLPHINS:
So much for the “Man-genius.” A year after going to the playoffs, the Jets are an underdog to a 0-11 team.
REDSKINS (-5.5) over Bills:
See Rams v. Falcons.
CHARGERS (-5.5) over Chiefs:
The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7, and the Chiefs are coming off of a loss to the Raiders. ‘Nuff said.
Jaguars (+6.5) over COLTS:
This game should decide the AFC South. The Colts are beat up on both sides of the ball, and Harrison will not play again this week. David Garrard’s decision making has been Manning/Brady-esque in recent weeks. My heart says Jags, but my brain says Colts. Can you imagine the Colts as a Wild Card team? Me neither, but I’ll take the points as the Jags keep it close only to lose late on a Vinatieri field goal.
Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES:
A week after coaching the game of his life, Andy Reid makes one of the worst coaching decisions of his career: benching the hot hand…alright, how about warm hand… in AJ Feeley to trot out a walking wounded Donovan McNabb. McNabb will be on the bench by the half, but the Eagles will be down two scores or more, and even the great …uh…slightly better than mediocre AJ Feeley won’t be able to lead them back.
Fantasy Note: Shawn Alexander is back for this game, but expect him to be a decoy and Maurice Morris will still do most of the heavy lifting.
PANTHERS (-3) over 49ers:
Vinny T v. Trent Dilfer. See Redskins v. Bills… catching onto the theme yet? This week sucks.
SAINTS (-3) over Buccaneers:
I feel queasy betting on Jeff Garcia under the best of circumstances. But as a game time decision? When the backup QB options are some guy out of Toledo that you’ve never heard of (sporting a 52.4 QB rating) and the lesser of the McCown brothers… gotta go with the Saints in this one.
Browns (PK) over CARDINALS:
How is the over/under on this game not in the 80’s. 1,000 yards of total combined offense isn’t a possibility, it’s a probability. This has 45-42 written all over it. I’ll take the Browns in the most exciting game of the day.
RAIDERS (+3.5) over Broncos:
My future niece (due in about 5 months) just used Morse code to ask why Mike Shanahan is kicking to Devin Hester. The Broncos will fail to right the ship after last week’s gut wrenching loss.
Giants (-1.5) over BEARS:
Another battle between quarterbacks I refuse to bet on. Still, how is this line so close? As long as the Giants learn from Mike Shanahan’s mistakes, this is a double digit victory for the “G-men”.
STEELERS (-7) over Bengals:
The Steelers have already won by 11 in Cincy. The Steelers are also looking to bounce back from a couple sub standard weeks against bad teams.
Patriots (-20.5) over RAVENS:
The Pats are 9-2 against the spread. The Ravens offense is abysmal. In fact the Ravens may want to dress two punters for this game. Sam Koch could be the first ever punter to suffer from a tired leg from all the work he’s going to get.
Last Week: 7-9 ATS
For those of you who don’t know, Bill Simmons did a Marathon Live Chat to benefit the Jimmy V Foundation on ESPN.com 28 Nov. This was a question and Bill’s answer. The next day, the Knicks lost 104-59 to the Celtics…
Otis (Toronto, ON): This is dedication: 1. Start your chat at the office while closing door to office and declaring a "brainstorming session" 2. Continue on the commmute home via blackberry 3. Continue chat on the home computer, taking breaks for smokes and steaks that being said, how close are we to having the Knicks banished to the WNBA?
Bill Simmons: (12:29 PM ET ) That a boy, Otis! I like the idea of banishing the Knicks to the WNBA - Renaldo Balkman would be the 10th most attractive player in the league.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
A Blueprint for the Patriots
It’s been 48 hours since the Eagles nearly came back to take the lead against the Patriots with 3 minutes left in the fourth quarter Sunday night. Because really, that’s all that happened. All I keep hearing is that the Eagles have shown us the blueprint to beat the Patriots. Really? Ok, then let’s review the blueprint.
1. Go for it on 4th and Short. Ok, I agree that going for it on 4th and 2 or less any time you are on the Patriots side of the field is the right call. You have to try to score touchdowns with them. Field Goals don’t cut it. Going on fourth and short on your own side of the field is still a mistake as, if you fail; you’re giving Brady & Co. a short field which is guaranteed points.
2. Run Slants and In-cuts to take advantage of the Patriots corners shading outside and their safeties playing to eliminate the deep ball. Ok, this worked pretty well, and any time Feeley tried to go outside or deep he threw interceptions or had the ball knocked away.
3. Sound fundamentals on defense, especially tackling are a must. Duh.
4. Play press coverage with a safety over the top against Randy Moss. This worked pretty well, but how many teams have a physical corner like Lito Sheppard, and a hard hitting safety like Brian Dawkins to throw at Randy Moss?
5. Blitz constantly and from everywhere. Jim Johnson’s defensive game plan was brilliant. Can’t hurt you to try this too.
6. Run every trick play in your playbook: Flea Flicker, Wide Receiver Pass, End Around, Reverse, etc. Ok, when you’re playing the most talented team in the league, you have to… wait for it… pull out all the stops – go for the gold – go all in – leave nothing on the field – hold nothing back - pick your cliché.
7. Recover a surprise onside kick in the first half. Now you’ve got to get lucky.
8. Get the Patriots to miss a 32 yard field goal. And we’re passing over the shark now…
9. Hope that the Patriots are missing 2 or 3 of their players who started the game on defense for significant parts of the game. Ok now we’re getting desperate.
Well there’s your blueprint. Basically have the game of your life, get really lucky, and after allowing over 300 yards passing, you might be in position to take a lead by 3 or 4 points with a few minutes left. You might even succeed in taking the lead. But remember that if you take the lead with more than 60 second on the clock, Brady & Co is probably still going to find a way to tear your heart out. Oh, and by the way, now that Belichick has seen all this he’ll probably be awake 22 hours per day figuring out how to beat it. So good luck with your blueprint…
1. Go for it on 4th and Short. Ok, I agree that going for it on 4th and 2 or less any time you are on the Patriots side of the field is the right call. You have to try to score touchdowns with them. Field Goals don’t cut it. Going on fourth and short on your own side of the field is still a mistake as, if you fail; you’re giving Brady & Co. a short field which is guaranteed points.
2. Run Slants and In-cuts to take advantage of the Patriots corners shading outside and their safeties playing to eliminate the deep ball. Ok, this worked pretty well, and any time Feeley tried to go outside or deep he threw interceptions or had the ball knocked away.
3. Sound fundamentals on defense, especially tackling are a must. Duh.
4. Play press coverage with a safety over the top against Randy Moss. This worked pretty well, but how many teams have a physical corner like Lito Sheppard, and a hard hitting safety like Brian Dawkins to throw at Randy Moss?
5. Blitz constantly and from everywhere. Jim Johnson’s defensive game plan was brilliant. Can’t hurt you to try this too.
6. Run every trick play in your playbook: Flea Flicker, Wide Receiver Pass, End Around, Reverse, etc. Ok, when you’re playing the most talented team in the league, you have to… wait for it… pull out all the stops – go for the gold – go all in – leave nothing on the field – hold nothing back - pick your cliché.
7. Recover a surprise onside kick in the first half. Now you’ve got to get lucky.
8. Get the Patriots to miss a 32 yard field goal. And we’re passing over the shark now…
9. Hope that the Patriots are missing 2 or 3 of their players who started the game on defense for significant parts of the game. Ok now we’re getting desperate.
Well there’s your blueprint. Basically have the game of your life, get really lucky, and after allowing over 300 yards passing, you might be in position to take a lead by 3 or 4 points with a few minutes left. You might even succeed in taking the lead. But remember that if you take the lead with more than 60 second on the clock, Brady & Co is probably still going to find a way to tear your heart out. Oh, and by the way, now that Belichick has seen all this he’ll probably be awake 22 hours per day figuring out how to beat it. So good luck with your blueprint…
Monday, November 26, 2007
Pucker Factor
Well last night got the Pucker Factor in New England to about 5.5 out of 10. Let’s review the top 10 reasons why it wasn’t any higher…
10. Anyone who took the Pats to beat Vegas and win more than 11.5 games hasn’t been worried in weeks.
9. The AFC East was locked up before the game even started.
8. Since the 2002 Super Bowl and the 2004 World Series, people in New England just don’t worry about that historic collapse like we used to.
7. The Eagles have exactly zero players who went to Appalachian St.
6. Lloyd Carr was no where near Foxboro
5. As nice as an undefeated season would be, barring a historic collapse and a loss in the Super Bowl, this Patriots team has already secured a place among the best 3 or 4 teams in NFL history.
4. Wes Welker is the off-season acquisition of the year (non-Randy Moss category)
3. Randy Moss is the off-season acquisition of the year (Randy Moss category included)
2. AJ Feeley was the Eagles QB
1. Tom Brady is the Patriots QB
Random Thoughts:
Jacoby Ellsbury and either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz (or worse yet, both) is too much to pay for Johan Santana. Ellsbury is a future All-Star, and the Red Sox leadoff hitter for the next decade, and both Lester and Buchholz have Cy Young potential. Coco Crisp, Buchholz or Lester, and another lesser positional or pitching prospect is all the Sox should be giving up for Santana straight up.
The Patriots have scored 89 fewer points than the other three teams in the AFC East COMBINED!
How much does it suck to be a Denver sports fan right now? Rockies swept out of the World Series; after a promising start, the Nuggets may be losing Kenyon Martin…again; and after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory last night, the Broncos are 5-6 with just one certain win (KC in week 14) left on the schedule (remember they needed OT to beat the Raiders at Mile High). Hey, at least the Avalanche are only 1 point out of first in their division. Apparently pro hockey is still being played. Who knew?
On behalf of fantasy owners everywhere, I demand a DNA test to prove that Eli and Peyton Manning are related. I think this would make a fantastic episode of Maury Povich.
Lock of the Week: no one outside Pennsylvania will be watching Monday Night Football.
Dennis Dixon must win the Heisman. Without him, Oregon couldn’t score once against UCLA. That’s the same UCLA that gave up 44 points to Utah…
Last off-season, the Angels over-paid for an aging, over-rated centerfielder. This off-season, the Angels over-paid for an aging, over-rated centerfielder. Hmm…
10. Anyone who took the Pats to beat Vegas and win more than 11.5 games hasn’t been worried in weeks.
9. The AFC East was locked up before the game even started.
8. Since the 2002 Super Bowl and the 2004 World Series, people in New England just don’t worry about that historic collapse like we used to.
7. The Eagles have exactly zero players who went to Appalachian St.
6. Lloyd Carr was no where near Foxboro
5. As nice as an undefeated season would be, barring a historic collapse and a loss in the Super Bowl, this Patriots team has already secured a place among the best 3 or 4 teams in NFL history.
4. Wes Welker is the off-season acquisition of the year (non-Randy Moss category)
3. Randy Moss is the off-season acquisition of the year (Randy Moss category included)
2. AJ Feeley was the Eagles QB
1. Tom Brady is the Patriots QB
Random Thoughts:
Jacoby Ellsbury and either Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz (or worse yet, both) is too much to pay for Johan Santana. Ellsbury is a future All-Star, and the Red Sox leadoff hitter for the next decade, and both Lester and Buchholz have Cy Young potential. Coco Crisp, Buchholz or Lester, and another lesser positional or pitching prospect is all the Sox should be giving up for Santana straight up.
The Patriots have scored 89 fewer points than the other three teams in the AFC East COMBINED!
How much does it suck to be a Denver sports fan right now? Rockies swept out of the World Series; after a promising start, the Nuggets may be losing Kenyon Martin…again; and after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory last night, the Broncos are 5-6 with just one certain win (KC in week 14) left on the schedule (remember they needed OT to beat the Raiders at Mile High). Hey, at least the Avalanche are only 1 point out of first in their division. Apparently pro hockey is still being played. Who knew?
On behalf of fantasy owners everywhere, I demand a DNA test to prove that Eli and Peyton Manning are related. I think this would make a fantastic episode of Maury Povich.
Lock of the Week: no one outside Pennsylvania will be watching Monday Night Football.
Dennis Dixon must win the Heisman. Without him, Oregon couldn’t score once against UCLA. That’s the same UCLA that gave up 44 points to Utah…
Last off-season, the Angels over-paid for an aging, over-rated centerfielder. This off-season, the Angels over-paid for an aging, over-rated centerfielder. Hmm…
Saturday, November 24, 2007
Week 12 Picks B
Week 12 Picks Against the Spread Part B (HOME teams in caps)
Titans (-1) over BENGALS:
Betting on Vince Young has killed me the last two weeks. Betting on the Bengals has killed everyone all year. In this week’s bad karma game, I’ll take the Titans… but I don’t have to feel good about it.
RAMS (+3) over Seahawks:
The Rams’ offense can score with anyone when it’s right. It’s getting right. Seattle’s passing attack is starting to click too as Maurice Morris has begun to give them a more consistent ground game. This one is going to be a slugfest and though it feels like a push, I’ll take the Rams and the points to cover at home.
Ravens (+9) over CHARGERS:
Last week was a mirage. The Ravens offense still sucks. However, there’s no way the Chargers have been consistent enough to warrant a nine point spread against anyone, even a team as miserable as the Ravens.
GIANTS (-7.5) over Vikings:
The loss of Mathias Kiwanuka will hurt the Giants pass rush, but the Vikings still don’t have a quarterback who can give them a legit passing threat. Look for 8 in the box for the Giants to stop Chester Taylor and/or Adrian Peterson. The Giants will jump out to an early lead and force the Vikings to throw to catch up. I’d expect at least 5 sacks as Tarvaris Jackson struggles against a formidable pass rush in the hostile environs of the Meadowlands.
Redskins (+3) over BUCCANEERS:
This looks like a throw back game. Expect a low scoring defensive struggle. This is another one that looks like a push, but I’ve got to pick someone, so I’ll take the team with the healthier offense.
Saints (-3) over PANTHERS:
Who is going to play QB for the Panthers this week? When you are hoping that Vinny Testaverde, who I’m told just turned 67 this week, will be healthy enough to start, you’ve got a problem. Not a lot to like about the Saints, but at least they know who will be starting under center.
Bills (+7.5) over JAGUARS:
You really have to discount what happened last week in Buffalo. The Patriots are just in a different stratosphere. The Jags offense isn’t fit to hold New England’s jock. The Bills had been one of the hottest teams in the AFC before the New England game, and they’ll play tough as this one goes down to the wire.
BROWNS (-3.5) over Texans:
This is going to be another shootout as two good offenses go up against two below average defenses. Cleveland’s weapons, especially Braylon Edwards, will make more plays than Houston’s to win this one by a touchdown.
Raiders (+5) over CHEIFS:
Don’t care, moving on.
CARDINALS (-10) over 49ers:
The 49ers continue their quest to hand the Patriots a top 3 draft pick.
Broncos (+2) over BEARS:
How are the Bears favored against anyone outside of Miami? This is a no-brainer.
Dolphins (+16) over STEELERS:
Sixteen points!? This is the team that lost to the Jets. I know the Steelers are good, but Miami has played tough defensively of late. Steelers will win, and the game will never be in doubt, but 16 points?
Titans (-1) over BENGALS:
Betting on Vince Young has killed me the last two weeks. Betting on the Bengals has killed everyone all year. In this week’s bad karma game, I’ll take the Titans… but I don’t have to feel good about it.
RAMS (+3) over Seahawks:
The Rams’ offense can score with anyone when it’s right. It’s getting right. Seattle’s passing attack is starting to click too as Maurice Morris has begun to give them a more consistent ground game. This one is going to be a slugfest and though it feels like a push, I’ll take the Rams and the points to cover at home.
Ravens (+9) over CHARGERS:
Last week was a mirage. The Ravens offense still sucks. However, there’s no way the Chargers have been consistent enough to warrant a nine point spread against anyone, even a team as miserable as the Ravens.
GIANTS (-7.5) over Vikings:
The loss of Mathias Kiwanuka will hurt the Giants pass rush, but the Vikings still don’t have a quarterback who can give them a legit passing threat. Look for 8 in the box for the Giants to stop Chester Taylor and/or Adrian Peterson. The Giants will jump out to an early lead and force the Vikings to throw to catch up. I’d expect at least 5 sacks as Tarvaris Jackson struggles against a formidable pass rush in the hostile environs of the Meadowlands.
Redskins (+3) over BUCCANEERS:
This looks like a throw back game. Expect a low scoring defensive struggle. This is another one that looks like a push, but I’ve got to pick someone, so I’ll take the team with the healthier offense.
Saints (-3) over PANTHERS:
Who is going to play QB for the Panthers this week? When you are hoping that Vinny Testaverde, who I’m told just turned 67 this week, will be healthy enough to start, you’ve got a problem. Not a lot to like about the Saints, but at least they know who will be starting under center.
Bills (+7.5) over JAGUARS:
You really have to discount what happened last week in Buffalo. The Patriots are just in a different stratosphere. The Jags offense isn’t fit to hold New England’s jock. The Bills had been one of the hottest teams in the AFC before the New England game, and they’ll play tough as this one goes down to the wire.
BROWNS (-3.5) over Texans:
This is going to be another shootout as two good offenses go up against two below average defenses. Cleveland’s weapons, especially Braylon Edwards, will make more plays than Houston’s to win this one by a touchdown.
Raiders (+5) over CHEIFS:
Don’t care, moving on.
CARDINALS (-10) over 49ers:
The 49ers continue their quest to hand the Patriots a top 3 draft pick.
Broncos (+2) over BEARS:
How are the Bears favored against anyone outside of Miami? This is a no-brainer.
Dolphins (+16) over STEELERS:
Sixteen points!? This is the team that lost to the Jets. I know the Steelers are good, but Miami has played tough defensively of late. Steelers will win, and the game will never be in doubt, but 16 points?
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Week 12 NFL Picks A
Week 12 Picks Against the Spread Part A (HOME teams in caps)
PATRIOTS (-23.5 at the moment, but expect -28+ or OFF by Kickoff) over Eagles:
I'm getting my call in on this one before the line gets into the triple digits or gets called off entirely. Randy Moss has 2 more receiving TDs than the entire Eagles team. Wes Welker has 7 receiving TDs this season, good for second best on the NE roster, all Eagles WRs combine for 8 TDs. The Eagles have scored 20 touchdowns this season, the Pats have scored 54. If Randy Moss scores a TD in this game, he will have as many points through 11 games as the Eagles leading scorer (David Akers) had all of last season. The Pats are 9-1 against the spread, and when they cover, its not by a couple points.
Colts (-11.5) over FALCONS:
Warrick Dunn, who leads the Falcons in rushing, is averaging 3.1 YPC and has 3 rushing touchdowns. Peyton Manning is last on the Colts in rushing, averaging -0.6 YPC and has 3 rushing touchdowns…Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have 6 receiving touchdowns each. All Falcon players have combined for 7 receiving touchdowns. Nothing about this game warrants watching other than it’s a Thursday night, and what else are you going to do? No way the Colts drop the ball again. They'll make up for their poor play the last couple weeks and obliterate the Falcons.
Packers (-3.5) over LIONS:
Isn’t the best game supposed to be in prime time? Kinda the opposite this Thanksgiving… The Lions have been outscored by 1 point this season. The Packers have outscored their opponents by 100 points this season. Neither team has much interest in running the ball, so a shootout is a distinct possibility, but the Lions will keep it close thanks to more compact game plans by both teams. In the end though Woodson and Harris will have more luck shutting down the Lions’ receivers than do Bryant and Wilson in shutting down the Packers’ wideouts, and I’ll take Favre over Kitna.
COWBOYS (-14) over Jets:
If you’re like my family and eat Thanksgiving dinner at 1PM, you will be asleep for this game. I strongly suggest this course of action.
Last Week: 6-8-2 (ATS), 12-4 (S/U) I’ll keep picking losers if you keep betting against them.
PATRIOTS (-23.5 at the moment, but expect -28+ or OFF by Kickoff) over Eagles:
I'm getting my call in on this one before the line gets into the triple digits or gets called off entirely. Randy Moss has 2 more receiving TDs than the entire Eagles team. Wes Welker has 7 receiving TDs this season, good for second best on the NE roster, all Eagles WRs combine for 8 TDs. The Eagles have scored 20 touchdowns this season, the Pats have scored 54. If Randy Moss scores a TD in this game, he will have as many points through 11 games as the Eagles leading scorer (David Akers) had all of last season. The Pats are 9-1 against the spread, and when they cover, its not by a couple points.
Colts (-11.5) over FALCONS:
Warrick Dunn, who leads the Falcons in rushing, is averaging 3.1 YPC and has 3 rushing touchdowns. Peyton Manning is last on the Colts in rushing, averaging -0.6 YPC and has 3 rushing touchdowns…Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have 6 receiving touchdowns each. All Falcon players have combined for 7 receiving touchdowns. Nothing about this game warrants watching other than it’s a Thursday night, and what else are you going to do? No way the Colts drop the ball again. They'll make up for their poor play the last couple weeks and obliterate the Falcons.
Packers (-3.5) over LIONS:
Isn’t the best game supposed to be in prime time? Kinda the opposite this Thanksgiving… The Lions have been outscored by 1 point this season. The Packers have outscored their opponents by 100 points this season. Neither team has much interest in running the ball, so a shootout is a distinct possibility, but the Lions will keep it close thanks to more compact game plans by both teams. In the end though Woodson and Harris will have more luck shutting down the Lions’ receivers than do Bryant and Wilson in shutting down the Packers’ wideouts, and I’ll take Favre over Kitna.
COWBOYS (-14) over Jets:
If you’re like my family and eat Thanksgiving dinner at 1PM, you will be asleep for this game. I strongly suggest this course of action.
Last Week: 6-8-2 (ATS), 12-4 (S/U) I’ll keep picking losers if you keep betting against them.
Baseball Update
As it appears that the Twins will not be able to re-sign Johan Santana, I’m going to make an amendment to my earlier trade proposal on behalf of the Red Sox.
Boston gets:
1. Johan Santana, SP from the Twins; this doesn’t require explanation
2. Gerald Laird, C from the Rangers; see my argument from Nov 19th 2007
Texas gets:
1. Coco Crisp, CF from the Red Sox; see my argument from Nov 19th 2007
2. Justin Masterson, SP from the Red Sox (AA); a rising star in the Red Sox organization
3. Cash (maybe $2M i.e. approx. 20% of Crisp’s salary over the next 2 years)
Minnesota gets:
1. Kevin Mahar, OF from the Rangers (AAA); capable of being a 4th outfielder with some pop (22 doubles in AAA in ’07) or a suitable for a platoon role against lefties (.815 OPS v. LHP in AAA in ’07)
2. Either Craig Hansen, RP or Abe Alvarez, SP from the Red Sox(AAA); both are considered major talents who appear to need a change of scenery after hitting a plateau in the Sox farm system. Either could help the Twins immediately as the end of the bullpen.
3. Either Clay Buchholz, SP or Jon Lester, SP from the Red Sox; the center figure going to Minnesota. Both are ready to be middle of the rotation starters on Opening Day 2008, and could be the team’s #2 behind Francisco Liriano by Opening Day 2009.
4. Either Jed Lowrie, SS or Brandon Moss, OF from the Red Sox (AAA); both are top prospects and have been serious OPS machines in the minors. Despite an All-Star season in AA, Lowrie is stuck behind Julio Lugo’s contract but is ready to battle for a Major League job in Spring Training 2008. After an All-Star season in the International League (AAA) Moss will likely be the Sox 4th OF if he isn’t traded and could be the same for the Twins. Moss could also compete for a starting corner outfield spot for the Twins after hitting .333 in a September call-up for the Red Sox.
If you are the Red Sox, you get a younger, cheaper backup catcher who is a good receiver, has some pop in his bat, and can throw out the occasional baserunner. All things that are waning in their current backup, Doug Mirabelli. You also get one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball, the catch being that you’ll have to get him signed long term ASAP. That will likely cost somewhere in the 7-8 year, $140M-$160M range. But how do you pass up on the opportunity for a rotation of Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka, Schilling, and Lester/Buchholz (whichever doesn’t get dealt)? Plus by possibly overpaying in prospects, you also keep Santana away from the Yankees.
If you are the Rangers, you get young, cheap, quality pitching, and a Gold Glove caliber CF with speed who can hit at the top of the order in a pinch.
If you are the Twins, you get a wealth of young, cheap pitching and positional talent all of which appears ready to produce immediately. and all of which has All-Star potential.
All this being said, I think the Twins are NUTS to not re-sign Santana.
Boston gets:
1. Johan Santana, SP from the Twins; this doesn’t require explanation
2. Gerald Laird, C from the Rangers; see my argument from Nov 19th 2007
Texas gets:
1. Coco Crisp, CF from the Red Sox; see my argument from Nov 19th 2007
2. Justin Masterson, SP from the Red Sox (AA); a rising star in the Red Sox organization
3. Cash (maybe $2M i.e. approx. 20% of Crisp’s salary over the next 2 years)
Minnesota gets:
1. Kevin Mahar, OF from the Rangers (AAA); capable of being a 4th outfielder with some pop (22 doubles in AAA in ’07) or a suitable for a platoon role against lefties (.815 OPS v. LHP in AAA in ’07)
2. Either Craig Hansen, RP or Abe Alvarez, SP from the Red Sox(AAA); both are considered major talents who appear to need a change of scenery after hitting a plateau in the Sox farm system. Either could help the Twins immediately as the end of the bullpen.
3. Either Clay Buchholz, SP or Jon Lester, SP from the Red Sox; the center figure going to Minnesota. Both are ready to be middle of the rotation starters on Opening Day 2008, and could be the team’s #2 behind Francisco Liriano by Opening Day 2009.
4. Either Jed Lowrie, SS or Brandon Moss, OF from the Red Sox (AAA); both are top prospects and have been serious OPS machines in the minors. Despite an All-Star season in AA, Lowrie is stuck behind Julio Lugo’s contract but is ready to battle for a Major League job in Spring Training 2008. After an All-Star season in the International League (AAA) Moss will likely be the Sox 4th OF if he isn’t traded and could be the same for the Twins. Moss could also compete for a starting corner outfield spot for the Twins after hitting .333 in a September call-up for the Red Sox.
If you are the Red Sox, you get a younger, cheaper backup catcher who is a good receiver, has some pop in his bat, and can throw out the occasional baserunner. All things that are waning in their current backup, Doug Mirabelli. You also get one of the top 5 pitchers in baseball, the catch being that you’ll have to get him signed long term ASAP. That will likely cost somewhere in the 7-8 year, $140M-$160M range. But how do you pass up on the opportunity for a rotation of Beckett, Santana, Matsuzaka, Schilling, and Lester/Buchholz (whichever doesn’t get dealt)? Plus by possibly overpaying in prospects, you also keep Santana away from the Yankees.
If you are the Rangers, you get young, cheap, quality pitching, and a Gold Glove caliber CF with speed who can hit at the top of the order in a pinch.
If you are the Twins, you get a wealth of young, cheap pitching and positional talent all of which appears ready to produce immediately. and all of which has All-Star potential.
All this being said, I think the Twins are NUTS to not re-sign Santana.
WTF? Over.
ESPN.com has their weekly ‘pick a winner’ NFL poll up and after the site tabulated for my votes on each game; it gave me some interesting numbers. Of 11,268 voters, 95.2% of voters think that the Colts will beat the Falcons. That means 541 people think the Falcons will beat the Colts. Also, 10.4% of those who voted think the Eagles (at the moment a 23.5 point underdog) will win in New England. That’s 1,172 people. Finally, 6.5% of people think that the winless Dolphins will beat the Steelers. That’s 732 people. My question is: WHO THE HELL ARE THESE PEOPLE!? Again, this isn’t a poll asking how you think these teams will do against the spread. This is straight up!
This isn’t a fan thing. I know people are going to be loyal to their team, but in these cases, there can only be one of two reasons for voting for the Falcons, Eagles, or Dolphins. One possibility is that these people are such blindly loyal fans that any time a question involving their team comes up, they automatically vote for their team, or as I call it the “Sticking your fingers in your ears and trilling your tongue” response. The other (and I think more likely) possibility is that THESE PEOPLE ARE F#*&ING STUPID AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE GENE POOL! I call this the “George Carlin Theory.” As Carlin points out, if we, in the USA were to simply remove the warning labels from everything, we would almost certainly skim the bottom 10% of the gene pool from the population.
I have to believe that only someone dumb enough to drink bleach out of curiosity could possibly think that a team with Joey Harrington at the helm, and who just lost by 24 at home to Tampa Bay, is going to beat the defending Super Bowl champs on a short week.
If you need to be reminded to take your child out of a stroller before folding it up, you might be clueless enough to think the Eagles will beat the undefeated Patriots in Foxboro. Folks, the spread on this game is rising faster than the temperature in a room full of teenage boys watching Jessica Alba dance around in a bikini and chaps at the end of Sin City. My buddy Adam tells me that some sports books in Vegas have taken the Pats totally off the board due to the amount of money they are losing. Those massive casinos aren’t there because the bookies lose, yet the Pats have covered 9 out of 10 times this season, and they are favored by three touchdowns and a field goal. By Sunday, it could go over four touchdowns. That’s never happened in an NFL game. EVER! The Patriots are treating each week like Nebraska treated Kansas in the 90’s.
I want to be a little more understanding of people picking the Dolphins over the Steelers. After all, the Steelers did lose to the lowly Jets last week. Still, this is the Dolphins. I mean they just lost to a Philly team led by AJ Feeley’s 116 yards passing, and … hold on I’ve got to double check this… 148 yards rushing by Brian Westbrook!? That’s his career high… by 24 yards! In fact in 83 career games, he’s gone over 100 yards rushing only 12 times. Apparently the threat of AJ Feeley chucking the ball around was enough to scare the Fins into dropping 7 or 8 into coverage every play. I mean how else could Westbrook gash them for nearly 150 yards? And there are 732 people who think that the Dolphins will be able to stop Roethlisberger, Parker, Ward and company? Not to mention that the Dolphins will have to find a way to put up points despite an offensive attack led by the three headed chimera of: some guy named Chatman out of Eastern Washington who is averaged 3.3 YPC against the Eagles, John Beck-who had to wait for a guy named Lemon to blunder his way through 4.9 games before getting a chance to complete 9 of 22 passes against the Eagles-and… well, NO-ONE. The Dolphins top receiver is still Chris Chambers, and he got traded October 16th. Number two on the receiving list? Ronnie Brown, who hasn’t played since week 7 against the Patriots. I’ve changed my mind, I can’t understand these people. Anyone who picks the Dolphins to win for the rest of the season should be considered a national security risk, or clinically insane, and locked up for the rest of their lives.
This isn’t a fan thing. I know people are going to be loyal to their team, but in these cases, there can only be one of two reasons for voting for the Falcons, Eagles, or Dolphins. One possibility is that these people are such blindly loyal fans that any time a question involving their team comes up, they automatically vote for their team, or as I call it the “Sticking your fingers in your ears and trilling your tongue” response. The other (and I think more likely) possibility is that THESE PEOPLE ARE F#*&ING STUPID AND SHOULD BE REMOVED FROM THE GENE POOL! I call this the “George Carlin Theory.” As Carlin points out, if we, in the USA were to simply remove the warning labels from everything, we would almost certainly skim the bottom 10% of the gene pool from the population.
I have to believe that only someone dumb enough to drink bleach out of curiosity could possibly think that a team with Joey Harrington at the helm, and who just lost by 24 at home to Tampa Bay, is going to beat the defending Super Bowl champs on a short week.
If you need to be reminded to take your child out of a stroller before folding it up, you might be clueless enough to think the Eagles will beat the undefeated Patriots in Foxboro. Folks, the spread on this game is rising faster than the temperature in a room full of teenage boys watching Jessica Alba dance around in a bikini and chaps at the end of Sin City. My buddy Adam tells me that some sports books in Vegas have taken the Pats totally off the board due to the amount of money they are losing. Those massive casinos aren’t there because the bookies lose, yet the Pats have covered 9 out of 10 times this season, and they are favored by three touchdowns and a field goal. By Sunday, it could go over four touchdowns. That’s never happened in an NFL game. EVER! The Patriots are treating each week like Nebraska treated Kansas in the 90’s.
I want to be a little more understanding of people picking the Dolphins over the Steelers. After all, the Steelers did lose to the lowly Jets last week. Still, this is the Dolphins. I mean they just lost to a Philly team led by AJ Feeley’s 116 yards passing, and … hold on I’ve got to double check this… 148 yards rushing by Brian Westbrook!? That’s his career high… by 24 yards! In fact in 83 career games, he’s gone over 100 yards rushing only 12 times. Apparently the threat of AJ Feeley chucking the ball around was enough to scare the Fins into dropping 7 or 8 into coverage every play. I mean how else could Westbrook gash them for nearly 150 yards? And there are 732 people who think that the Dolphins will be able to stop Roethlisberger, Parker, Ward and company? Not to mention that the Dolphins will have to find a way to put up points despite an offensive attack led by the three headed chimera of: some guy named Chatman out of Eastern Washington who is averaged 3.3 YPC against the Eagles, John Beck-who had to wait for a guy named Lemon to blunder his way through 4.9 games before getting a chance to complete 9 of 22 passes against the Eagles-and… well, NO-ONE. The Dolphins top receiver is still Chris Chambers, and he got traded October 16th. Number two on the receiving list? Ronnie Brown, who hasn’t played since week 7 against the Patriots. I’ve changed my mind, I can’t understand these people. Anyone who picks the Dolphins to win for the rest of the season should be considered a national security risk, or clinically insane, and locked up for the rest of their lives.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Baseball Update
I’d like to start a trade rumor based on virtually nothing… Coco Crisp to Texas and Gerald Laird to Boston. This trade makes sense for both teams. Texas has been looking for the answer in Centerfield since the departure of Gary Matthews Jr after the 2005 season. Crisp plays a Gold Glove caliber CF, and gives the Rangers a young, relatively cheap ($10 million over the next two years) outfielder with speed who can hit at the top of the order in a pinch. Laird has become expendable thanks to the acquisition of Jarrod Saltalamaccia in the Mark Teixeira trade. Boston on the other hand no longer needs Crisp with the emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury. Boston could use Laird as a cheaper (he made just over $400K last year), younger (28) version of Doug Mirabelli with more upside both at the plate and behind it. Both these players have become expendable with their current clubs due to development of younger players behind them, and both could fill major holes if this trade goes through.
In other news, Jon Garland has been traded from the Chicago White Sox to the LA Angels of Anaheim. This move makes it likely that Ervin Santana will be out of the Angels rotation. And to think, just a couple years ago, Santana was rumored to be the central piece of a blockbuster trade with Boston that would have sent Manny Ramirez to LA. The Angels apparently balked at the inclusion of Santana, and the trade fell through. Good call Angels.
Tom Glavine went back to the Braves for a one year eight million dollar deal. Wow. First, how is Glavine still making eight million per season!? His ERA was nearly four and a half last year, and now he will have to face the Mets’ lineup instead of having them back him up. Second, does this mean the Braves think they are a 42 year old Glavine away from a post-season birth? Really? With the Mets and the Phillies ahead of them? Don’t get me wrong, I like Glavine, but he’s going to be the 4th starter on this Braves team at best. I just can’t see paying a 42 year old 4th starter $8 million. The Braves have Buddy Carlyle and Lance Cormier, a couple under-30 starters who pitched well in triple A though had trouble at the major league level. The two combined to go 10-13 in 32 games (29 starts) and would combine to make less than $1 million next season. Is Glavine’s 13-8 record and slightly lower ERA worth the extra $7 million? If the Braves aren’t confident in either of these guys, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse are a couple of free agent starters who can probably be had for a 3 year $25 million deal. Both have far better stuff than Glavine, and have been consistent and durable 200 inning guys over the last half decade. If they don’t want to make a commitment of that length, Bartolo Colon can likely be had for a 1 year deal. This is a Cy Young caliber pitcher when he’s right. Granted, he might be totally ineffective, but he could win 18 games in the National League. With all these possibilities, it makes no sense for the Braves to commit to Glavine so early in the off-season. Glavine would probably still be there in January, and if he’s not, would you really be that worried about it?
In other news, Jon Garland has been traded from the Chicago White Sox to the LA Angels of Anaheim. This move makes it likely that Ervin Santana will be out of the Angels rotation. And to think, just a couple years ago, Santana was rumored to be the central piece of a blockbuster trade with Boston that would have sent Manny Ramirez to LA. The Angels apparently balked at the inclusion of Santana, and the trade fell through. Good call Angels.
Tom Glavine went back to the Braves for a one year eight million dollar deal. Wow. First, how is Glavine still making eight million per season!? His ERA was nearly four and a half last year, and now he will have to face the Mets’ lineup instead of having them back him up. Second, does this mean the Braves think they are a 42 year old Glavine away from a post-season birth? Really? With the Mets and the Phillies ahead of them? Don’t get me wrong, I like Glavine, but he’s going to be the 4th starter on this Braves team at best. I just can’t see paying a 42 year old 4th starter $8 million. The Braves have Buddy Carlyle and Lance Cormier, a couple under-30 starters who pitched well in triple A though had trouble at the major league level. The two combined to go 10-13 in 32 games (29 starts) and would combine to make less than $1 million next season. Is Glavine’s 13-8 record and slightly lower ERA worth the extra $7 million? If the Braves aren’t confident in either of these guys, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse are a couple of free agent starters who can probably be had for a 3 year $25 million deal. Both have far better stuff than Glavine, and have been consistent and durable 200 inning guys over the last half decade. If they don’t want to make a commitment of that length, Bartolo Colon can likely be had for a 1 year deal. This is a Cy Young caliber pitcher when he’s right. Granted, he might be totally ineffective, but he could win 18 games in the National League. With all these possibilities, it makes no sense for the Braves to commit to Glavine so early in the off-season. Glavine would probably still be there in January, and if he’s not, would you really be that worried about it?
Saturday, November 17, 2007
The Big Aftermath...
Like I said, if Chad Henne and Mike Hart weren't 100%, Michigan wasn't going to have much of a chance. Well, they weren't, and they didn't. That said, we got to see two, no question first round draft picks square off in Michigan LT Jake Long and OSU DE Vernon Gholston. Long is a no-question top 5 pick, and Gholston beat long for what may have been the first sack Long's given up all year.
I'm sad to see that Lloyd Carr is considering retirement after the loss to the Buckeyes. Michigan is going to beat whatever second rate team they play in a pre-new years day bowl game. I'd like to see Lloyd go out on top. He's been a class act who has graduated his players, and has developed some great NFL talents over the last decade. As much as I'm looking forward to Les Miles in Michigan garb next year, he'll be busy in New Orleans well past January 1st, and I'd like to see Carr go out on a winning note.
If the Celtics don't terrify you, either you aren't paying attention, or you live in San Antonio. The C's have seen their Big 3 play dominant basketball, and they have seen the supporting cast pick up the slack when the stars have had trouble. The big weaknesses that the talking heads saw in the Celtics entering the season were point guard, defense and bench. Well Rajon Rondo is shooting over 53%, and James Posey has led the Celtics' bench, and the C's are the top shooting percentage defense in the NBA. The Celtics have won convincing games over New Jersey (twice) and Denver enroute to 8 straight including wins.
I'm sad to see that Lloyd Carr is considering retirement after the loss to the Buckeyes. Michigan is going to beat whatever second rate team they play in a pre-new years day bowl game. I'd like to see Lloyd go out on top. He's been a class act who has graduated his players, and has developed some great NFL talents over the last decade. As much as I'm looking forward to Les Miles in Michigan garb next year, he'll be busy in New Orleans well past January 1st, and I'd like to see Carr go out on a winning note.
If the Celtics don't terrify you, either you aren't paying attention, or you live in San Antonio. The C's have seen their Big 3 play dominant basketball, and they have seen the supporting cast pick up the slack when the stars have had trouble. The big weaknesses that the talking heads saw in the Celtics entering the season were point guard, defense and bench. Well Rajon Rondo is shooting over 53%, and James Posey has led the Celtics' bench, and the C's are the top shooting percentage defense in the NBA. The Celtics have won convincing games over New Jersey (twice) and Denver enroute to 8 straight including wins.
The Big Game
Ohio State @ Michigan: Two words, Go Blue!
Every year, this game is loaded with NFL talent. Same goes this year with 4 possible 1st rounders, and 8 potential first day picks between the two teams. The result, however will come down to one thing. Health. If Henne and Hart play near or at 100%, Michigan wins. If either are out or are ineffective, OSU will take the day. Either way, I think this is Lloyd Carr's last game as Michigan's head coach. The National Championship in '97 and 4 Rose Bowl appearances have been great, but a loss today would mean a 4th straight loss and a 6-7 career record against OSU. A win allows Carr to go out on top with a winning record against the Buckeyes, and after Les Miles finishes winning a national championship at LSU in January, the Wolverines faithful will welcome back the former maize and blue letterman to coach them to what Michigan fans hope will be their next National Championship.
Every year, this game is loaded with NFL talent. Same goes this year with 4 possible 1st rounders, and 8 potential first day picks between the two teams. The result, however will come down to one thing. Health. If Henne and Hart play near or at 100%, Michigan wins. If either are out or are ineffective, OSU will take the day. Either way, I think this is Lloyd Carr's last game as Michigan's head coach. The National Championship in '97 and 4 Rose Bowl appearances have been great, but a loss today would mean a 4th straight loss and a 6-7 career record against OSU. A win allows Carr to go out on top with a winning record against the Buckeyes, and after Les Miles finishes winning a national championship at LSU in January, the Wolverines faithful will welcome back the former maize and blue letterman to coach them to what Michigan fans hope will be their next National Championship.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Week 11 NFL Picks
Week 11 Picks Against the Spread (HOME teams in caps)
I know this is my NFL Picks blog, but I can’t leave this alone through the weekend. By now, you’ve certainly heard that Barry Bonds has been indicted on perjury and obstruction of justice charges. This has to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back when it comes to Barry’s Hall of Fame chances. You will hear over the next several months and years that Barry belongs in The Hall because he was a hall of fame player before he started taking steroids/HGH, and that you are innocent until proven guilty. Really? Tell that to Pete Rose. Rose was a Hall of Fame caliber player. He was just a shadey manager. How about “Shoeless” Joe Jackson? “Shoeless” Joe was acquitted of all charges associated with the “Black Sox” scandal. Rose is the all time hits leader. “Shoeless” Joe had a .940 career OPS and had 10 more triples than strikeouts in his career. These guys were no-question, first ballot Hall of Fame players before their indiscretions, and neither is likely to ever be allowed into the Hall of Fame. On to my Week 11 NFL picks…
Raiders (+5.5) over VIKINGS:
Let’s see, two anemic passing offenses means two teams who can only run the ball going up against two solid run defenses. Dante Culpepper throwing deep balls for Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry once in a while scares me more than anything Minnesota’s Brooks Bollinger led passing offense can muster. Soooo….. 12-10 Vikings sound to you like too high of a score? Me too, but I’ll take Oakland and the points on the road anyway.
Dolphins (+10) over EAGLES:
The Dolphins have played inspired D last few weeks, including holding the Giants to 13 points and scoreless in the 2nd half. The new QB juice that John Beck will add to the offense should help some, and the rush offense has picked it up of late. Oh and its 10 points in the NFL. The Dolphins will lose, but they’ll keep it close.
JAGUARS (-3) over Chargers:
Both these teams are coming off of big wins. Well at least the Jaguars are, the Chargers just managed to lose less than the Colts last week. David Garrard should be back from an ankle injury this week, and he has played well this year. Did you know he hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year? He’s completing 66% of his passes, and while he won’t win a game for you, he’s done an admirable job of game management. He also adds an escapability element that might slow down the Chargers’ Shawn Merriman led pass rush. The Chargers are just too poorly led (Norv Turner and Phil Rivers) and too erratic to bet on week to week, especially on the road. The Colts are vulnerable with the losses of Harrison and Freeney. The Jags need to win this game if they want a shot at the AFC South. The Jags win in comeback style late.
Browns(-3) over RAVENS:
This should be one of the more interesting games to watch this weekend. The Ravens’ D is a battered (especially in the secondary) but proud group. However, the Ravens’ offense is anemic. They took 58 minutes to score against Cincinnati, and Cincy’s D hasn’t been able to stop anyone this season. Cleveland on the other hand is developing one of the best young offenses in the league. With the recent injuries to Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison, Cleveland’s receiving corps of Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, and (as much as I can’t stand him) Kellen Winslow has stepped up to become the best receiving trio outside of New England. Jamal Lewis is still a solid runner between the tackles (and why would you try to run outside against the Ravens anyway?) who will have a little extra juice playing against the team that gave up on him. The Browns get it done on the road to stay in the playoff hunt, and essentially knock the Ravens out of playoff contention.
On a personal note, Steve McNair has been one of the great warrior quarterbacks the NFL has seen. His toughness has rivaled Brett Favre’s on far less talented teams. However, McNair’s body has failed him after years of beatings behind less than stellar offensive lines. Kyle Boller will take over the quarterback position as I think we’ve seen the last of Steve McNair as a starting QB in the NFL. Congratulations Steve on a great career.
TEXANS (-1) over Saints:
This is a tough one because the Saints are incredibly inconsistent. Drew Brees could throw for 400 yards (as he did against Jax), or he could throw 4 picks (as he did against Ten). The Texans on the other hand are getting Matt Schaub back this week. He’s been very capable this year at getting the ball to his play-making wideouts, and the 1-2 punch of Ron Dayne and Ahman Green should be able to further loosen a weak New Orleans pass defense. And when in doubt, take the AFC team at home over the NFC team.
Buccaneers (-3) over FALCONS:
I’m still not a Joey Harrington fan, but when you win two straight with him at the helm, don’t you have to ride the hot hand? It’s not like he was backing up Brady or Manning, even Eli. This is Byron Leftwich. I love Leftwich’s guts. The game at Marshall when he broke his leg and his linemen had to carry him down the field to take the next snap is one of my all time favorite moments in sports. But he hasn’t panned out in the NFL due in no small part to a multitude of injuries. The whole Falcons organization is in shambles, and I can see betting on them against the Bucs and a rejuvenated Jeff Garcia.
BENGALS (-3) over Cardinals:
I hate this game. The Bengals are the Ravens reversed. A talented offense, great defensive coach who can’t figure out how to get the defense to play, and a talented offense that is tired of having to do all the work. I honestly think that if Brian Bilick and Marvin Lewis were traded for each other, then these teams would be playoff teams. Maybe we’ll find out next year after both get fired for missing the playoffs again. The Cardinals will nickel and dime their way down the field against Cincy’s weak D while Carson Palmer continues to get the ball to his playmakers, and in the end, the Bengals will make just enough plays to win this one at home. Cincy by a touchdown.
LIONS (+2.5) over Giants:
Both these teams are coming off of big losses. The Giants have a history of collapsing in the second half, while the Lions have a history of collapsing in training camp. Which of these teams is headed for a Wild Card slot, and which is headed for an 8-8 season. I’ve got to think that the Lions use some Kitna magic, their running game (seriously, 8 rushes against the Cardinals!?), and several Eli Manning interceptions to win this one at home. The Giants will turn on Tom Coughlin after another loss this week. How many times does this scenario have to play out before Coughlin gets fired? Is he the new Wayne Fontes of the NFL? I guess we’ll see this week against Fontes old team.
Panthers (+9.5) over PACKERS:
I know, the Packers at Lambeau in November against David Carr and/or Vinny T. Don’t get me wrong, the Packers win this game. But 9.5 points is a lot in the NFL, and Steve Smith can still play. That said, the Smith v Charles Woodson match-up should be fantastic. Maybe I’m giving the Panthers too much credit, because this is really a feeling game for me. Sometimes I gotta trust my insticts. But you probably shouldn’t trust my instincts.
COLTS (-14.5) over Chiefs:
Yes, the Colts are beat up. Freeney’s gone for the season, their top two options at left tackle are beat up, and the receiving corps was in such rough shape that the Colts only dressed 3 wideouts against the Chargers. But Peyton’s had a week to work with those wideouts, and Dallas Clark should be back. If Larry Johnson were playing, it might be different, especially without Freeney, but it’ll be Preist Holmes lining up behind Brody Croyle, and this ain’t 2003. The Colts will get a lift from the RCA crowd, and bounce back at home, big.
Steelers (-10) over JETS:
The Jets are bad… like Dolphins bad. After 6 straight losses, they were officially eliminated from the playoffs in Week 10. Their fans are already looking forward to the Mets’ spring training. The Steelers, on the other hand, are one of the top teams in the NFL. This one won’t be close, and there’s really nothing more to say. This one’s over by the half.
Rams (-3) over 49ERS:
So Trent Dilfer is set to replace Alex Smith as the starting quarterback for the 49ers this weekend. Did anyone outside San Francisco know Trent Dilfer was still in the NFL? Wait, on second thought, did anyone outside the Dilfer family know Trent Dilfer was still in the NFL? The Rams are out of it, but there are a lot of proud players on their offense who aren’t about to raise the white flag on this season.
SEAHAWKS (-5.5) over Bears:
Two words: Rex Grossman. I think Rex’s confidence has been shattered after being benched. He’s going to push too hard to prove that he should remain the starter when Griese comes back, and it’s going to backfire. At least 3 picks by Grossman before he gets lifted in the 4th quarter of a still close game. Hasselbeck appears to be getting in sync with his receivers, and he’ll continue to get it done this week thanks to 3 or 4 short field opportunities courtesy of Mr. Grossman.
COWBOYS (-10.5) over Redskins:
The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC because they have balance. Washington got off to a decent start, but the Cowboys are just too talented, especially in the front seven. The Cowboys will pressure Jason Campbell into some bad decisions, and Tony Romo will capitalize on them. Terrell Owens will make a couple big plays down the field, and Jason Witten and Marion Barber will bludgeon the Skins’ interior. This will be a competitive game in the first half, but Washington’s D won’t be able to get off the field in the second half, and the Cowboys will pull away.
Patriots (-16) over BILLS:
I know the Bills have been hot, but I’m sorry, the Patriots are just unstoppable. And they’re rested. Marshawn Lynch is out, and J.P. Losman is in. There’s nothing to like about either of those things. The Bills only have 9 sacks this season, and if there is one thing we know, its that if you can’t pressure Brady, you might as well just stay home. This one is over by halftime, but enjoy the show. The Pats will undoubtedly look to improve upon the 38-7 drubbing they handed Buffalo in Week 3.
Titans (+2) over BRONCOS:
Vince Young just wins games. Granted, LenDale White couldn’t get anything going against Denver the last time they met, but this is an improved LenDale White. Young won’t be able to throw against Denver’s elite corners, so look for a solid dose of White between the tackles, and Young on rollouts, designed runs, and maybe a little spread option out of the gun. Jay Cutler has the arm strength to go deep, but his offensive line may not be able to give him the time, and he really doesn’t have a valid deep threat wide receiver anyway. Look for a low scoring game between two teams looking to grind the clock, and the opposing defense, with short passes and a solid running game. Rob Bironas will be the difference late as the Titans eek out a win late.
Straight up take Vikings, Eagles, Jags, Browns, Texans, Bucs, Bengals, Lions, Packers, Colts, Steelers, Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, Pats, and Titans.
Last Week: 6-8 (ATS), 6-8 (S/U) I’ll keep picking losers if you keep betting against them.
I know this is my NFL Picks blog, but I can’t leave this alone through the weekend. By now, you’ve certainly heard that Barry Bonds has been indicted on perjury and obstruction of justice charges. This has to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back when it comes to Barry’s Hall of Fame chances. You will hear over the next several months and years that Barry belongs in The Hall because he was a hall of fame player before he started taking steroids/HGH, and that you are innocent until proven guilty. Really? Tell that to Pete Rose. Rose was a Hall of Fame caliber player. He was just a shadey manager. How about “Shoeless” Joe Jackson? “Shoeless” Joe was acquitted of all charges associated with the “Black Sox” scandal. Rose is the all time hits leader. “Shoeless” Joe had a .940 career OPS and had 10 more triples than strikeouts in his career. These guys were no-question, first ballot Hall of Fame players before their indiscretions, and neither is likely to ever be allowed into the Hall of Fame. On to my Week 11 NFL picks…
Raiders (+5.5) over VIKINGS:
Let’s see, two anemic passing offenses means two teams who can only run the ball going up against two solid run defenses. Dante Culpepper throwing deep balls for Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry once in a while scares me more than anything Minnesota’s Brooks Bollinger led passing offense can muster. Soooo….. 12-10 Vikings sound to you like too high of a score? Me too, but I’ll take Oakland and the points on the road anyway.
Dolphins (+10) over EAGLES:
The Dolphins have played inspired D last few weeks, including holding the Giants to 13 points and scoreless in the 2nd half. The new QB juice that John Beck will add to the offense should help some, and the rush offense has picked it up of late. Oh and its 10 points in the NFL. The Dolphins will lose, but they’ll keep it close.
JAGUARS (-3) over Chargers:
Both these teams are coming off of big wins. Well at least the Jaguars are, the Chargers just managed to lose less than the Colts last week. David Garrard should be back from an ankle injury this week, and he has played well this year. Did you know he hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year? He’s completing 66% of his passes, and while he won’t win a game for you, he’s done an admirable job of game management. He also adds an escapability element that might slow down the Chargers’ Shawn Merriman led pass rush. The Chargers are just too poorly led (Norv Turner and Phil Rivers) and too erratic to bet on week to week, especially on the road. The Colts are vulnerable with the losses of Harrison and Freeney. The Jags need to win this game if they want a shot at the AFC South. The Jags win in comeback style late.
Browns(-3) over RAVENS:
This should be one of the more interesting games to watch this weekend. The Ravens’ D is a battered (especially in the secondary) but proud group. However, the Ravens’ offense is anemic. They took 58 minutes to score against Cincinnati, and Cincy’s D hasn’t been able to stop anyone this season. Cleveland on the other hand is developing one of the best young offenses in the league. With the recent injuries to Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison, Cleveland’s receiving corps of Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, and (as much as I can’t stand him) Kellen Winslow has stepped up to become the best receiving trio outside of New England. Jamal Lewis is still a solid runner between the tackles (and why would you try to run outside against the Ravens anyway?) who will have a little extra juice playing against the team that gave up on him. The Browns get it done on the road to stay in the playoff hunt, and essentially knock the Ravens out of playoff contention.
On a personal note, Steve McNair has been one of the great warrior quarterbacks the NFL has seen. His toughness has rivaled Brett Favre’s on far less talented teams. However, McNair’s body has failed him after years of beatings behind less than stellar offensive lines. Kyle Boller will take over the quarterback position as I think we’ve seen the last of Steve McNair as a starting QB in the NFL. Congratulations Steve on a great career.
TEXANS (-1) over Saints:
This is a tough one because the Saints are incredibly inconsistent. Drew Brees could throw for 400 yards (as he did against Jax), or he could throw 4 picks (as he did against Ten). The Texans on the other hand are getting Matt Schaub back this week. He’s been very capable this year at getting the ball to his play-making wideouts, and the 1-2 punch of Ron Dayne and Ahman Green should be able to further loosen a weak New Orleans pass defense. And when in doubt, take the AFC team at home over the NFC team.
Buccaneers (-3) over FALCONS:
I’m still not a Joey Harrington fan, but when you win two straight with him at the helm, don’t you have to ride the hot hand? It’s not like he was backing up Brady or Manning, even Eli. This is Byron Leftwich. I love Leftwich’s guts. The game at Marshall when he broke his leg and his linemen had to carry him down the field to take the next snap is one of my all time favorite moments in sports. But he hasn’t panned out in the NFL due in no small part to a multitude of injuries. The whole Falcons organization is in shambles, and I can see betting on them against the Bucs and a rejuvenated Jeff Garcia.
BENGALS (-3) over Cardinals:
I hate this game. The Bengals are the Ravens reversed. A talented offense, great defensive coach who can’t figure out how to get the defense to play, and a talented offense that is tired of having to do all the work. I honestly think that if Brian Bilick and Marvin Lewis were traded for each other, then these teams would be playoff teams. Maybe we’ll find out next year after both get fired for missing the playoffs again. The Cardinals will nickel and dime their way down the field against Cincy’s weak D while Carson Palmer continues to get the ball to his playmakers, and in the end, the Bengals will make just enough plays to win this one at home. Cincy by a touchdown.
LIONS (+2.5) over Giants:
Both these teams are coming off of big losses. The Giants have a history of collapsing in the second half, while the Lions have a history of collapsing in training camp. Which of these teams is headed for a Wild Card slot, and which is headed for an 8-8 season. I’ve got to think that the Lions use some Kitna magic, their running game (seriously, 8 rushes against the Cardinals!?), and several Eli Manning interceptions to win this one at home. The Giants will turn on Tom Coughlin after another loss this week. How many times does this scenario have to play out before Coughlin gets fired? Is he the new Wayne Fontes of the NFL? I guess we’ll see this week against Fontes old team.
Panthers (+9.5) over PACKERS:
I know, the Packers at Lambeau in November against David Carr and/or Vinny T. Don’t get me wrong, the Packers win this game. But 9.5 points is a lot in the NFL, and Steve Smith can still play. That said, the Smith v Charles Woodson match-up should be fantastic. Maybe I’m giving the Panthers too much credit, because this is really a feeling game for me. Sometimes I gotta trust my insticts. But you probably shouldn’t trust my instincts.
COLTS (-14.5) over Chiefs:
Yes, the Colts are beat up. Freeney’s gone for the season, their top two options at left tackle are beat up, and the receiving corps was in such rough shape that the Colts only dressed 3 wideouts against the Chargers. But Peyton’s had a week to work with those wideouts, and Dallas Clark should be back. If Larry Johnson were playing, it might be different, especially without Freeney, but it’ll be Preist Holmes lining up behind Brody Croyle, and this ain’t 2003. The Colts will get a lift from the RCA crowd, and bounce back at home, big.
Steelers (-10) over JETS:
The Jets are bad… like Dolphins bad. After 6 straight losses, they were officially eliminated from the playoffs in Week 10. Their fans are already looking forward to the Mets’ spring training. The Steelers, on the other hand, are one of the top teams in the NFL. This one won’t be close, and there’s really nothing more to say. This one’s over by the half.
Rams (-3) over 49ERS:
So Trent Dilfer is set to replace Alex Smith as the starting quarterback for the 49ers this weekend. Did anyone outside San Francisco know Trent Dilfer was still in the NFL? Wait, on second thought, did anyone outside the Dilfer family know Trent Dilfer was still in the NFL? The Rams are out of it, but there are a lot of proud players on their offense who aren’t about to raise the white flag on this season.
SEAHAWKS (-5.5) over Bears:
Two words: Rex Grossman. I think Rex’s confidence has been shattered after being benched. He’s going to push too hard to prove that he should remain the starter when Griese comes back, and it’s going to backfire. At least 3 picks by Grossman before he gets lifted in the 4th quarter of a still close game. Hasselbeck appears to be getting in sync with his receivers, and he’ll continue to get it done this week thanks to 3 or 4 short field opportunities courtesy of Mr. Grossman.
COWBOYS (-10.5) over Redskins:
The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC because they have balance. Washington got off to a decent start, but the Cowboys are just too talented, especially in the front seven. The Cowboys will pressure Jason Campbell into some bad decisions, and Tony Romo will capitalize on them. Terrell Owens will make a couple big plays down the field, and Jason Witten and Marion Barber will bludgeon the Skins’ interior. This will be a competitive game in the first half, but Washington’s D won’t be able to get off the field in the second half, and the Cowboys will pull away.
Patriots (-16) over BILLS:
I know the Bills have been hot, but I’m sorry, the Patriots are just unstoppable. And they’re rested. Marshawn Lynch is out, and J.P. Losman is in. There’s nothing to like about either of those things. The Bills only have 9 sacks this season, and if there is one thing we know, its that if you can’t pressure Brady, you might as well just stay home. This one is over by halftime, but enjoy the show. The Pats will undoubtedly look to improve upon the 38-7 drubbing they handed Buffalo in Week 3.
Titans (+2) over BRONCOS:
Vince Young just wins games. Granted, LenDale White couldn’t get anything going against Denver the last time they met, but this is an improved LenDale White. Young won’t be able to throw against Denver’s elite corners, so look for a solid dose of White between the tackles, and Young on rollouts, designed runs, and maybe a little spread option out of the gun. Jay Cutler has the arm strength to go deep, but his offensive line may not be able to give him the time, and he really doesn’t have a valid deep threat wide receiver anyway. Look for a low scoring game between two teams looking to grind the clock, and the opposing defense, with short passes and a solid running game. Rob Bironas will be the difference late as the Titans eek out a win late.
Straight up take Vikings, Eagles, Jags, Browns, Texans, Bucs, Bengals, Lions, Packers, Colts, Steelers, Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, Pats, and Titans.
Last Week: 6-8 (ATS), 6-8 (S/U) I’ll keep picking losers if you keep betting against them.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
A Month for the Ages
A Month for the Ages:
Not counting the Bruins (because really, who does?) Friday, November 16th, will be the one month anniversary of the last time a major pro sports team in Boston lost a game. In that time, the Red Sox have won 7 straight, had a parade and been to the White House. The Patriots have won 3 games by a combined score of 125-55, and the Celtics new Big Three have gone 7-0.
With all apologies to A-Rod, I think it fair to say that the fans of Boston, not the once (and again?) Yankees third baseman, who are having the greatest month of any life (non-Hugh Hefner/Wilt Chamberlain class). And better yet, the next few months look like they could yield more of the same. The Celtics look like a 60 win team, the Patriots will probably go 19-0, and the Red Sox are looking like the early favorite to win the World Series next year. Do I sound like an insufferable Mass-hole yet?
Well it’s not all good. The Red Sox have announced that they will open the season next year in Japan. The last time a team did this, the 2004 Yankees started the season 10-11. That start was due in no small part to the stress of ending spring training early, traveling half way around the world for two games, only to return to the States to restart spring training. There is a silver lining to the series in Japan though. The Sox will get an extra start out of Josh Beckett as he’ll be able to start one of the games in Japan, and the season opener stateside.
In other news, Barry Bonds was indicted Thursday on perjury and obstruction of justice charges. Well Barry, you might not need to boycott the Hall of Fame, as you might not be invited. I wouldn’t get to excited to play ever again either, as you’re probably looking at a 50 game suspension from MLB if you try to play again.
Speaking of drugs, Ricky Williams got reinstated this week. How long can this last? The rest of the season…tops? Don’t get me wrong, there a lot worse things you can do, like HGH, or steroids, or a DUI hit and run where a person died, followed up with another DUI. But we’ll talk about how Leonard Little some other time. That said Ricky isn’t a guy you can count on, although the Dolphins at 0-9 don’t have much to lose.
As for teams with something to lose, Dwight Freeney pretty much seals up the Patriots perfect season. Without Freeney present to draw double and triple teams, the Colts pass rush is only average meaning the Colts would have to blitz to get pressure, and Tom Brady eats up teams that blitz. This could be a 2 touchdown win for the Pats if they meet in January. That meeting is no longer a given with injuries to Harrison and Freeney. I expect the Jaguars and the Titans to give the Colts all they can handle, and one of those teams will win. The AFC South will be the most interesting divisional race in the NFL the rest of the way.
This year gave us the perfect example of why the post-season should count for awards in MLB. C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett were dead even during the regular season. Any argument for either has to be biased. The post season should be the tie breaker. Had that been the case, Beckett’s dominant performance in the ALCS combined with the shelling Sabathia took from the Red Sox bats would’ve made the decision easy. The NL Rookie of the Year vote would’ve likely changed dramatically as well. For all Braun’s mighty swings, his Brewers fell from best record right out of the playoffs, while Troy Tulowitzki’s glove and bat helped the Rockies make their improbable run to the World Series.
Not counting the Bruins (because really, who does?) Friday, November 16th, will be the one month anniversary of the last time a major pro sports team in Boston lost a game. In that time, the Red Sox have won 7 straight, had a parade and been to the White House. The Patriots have won 3 games by a combined score of 125-55, and the Celtics new Big Three have gone 7-0.
With all apologies to A-Rod, I think it fair to say that the fans of Boston, not the once (and again?) Yankees third baseman, who are having the greatest month of any life (non-Hugh Hefner/Wilt Chamberlain class). And better yet, the next few months look like they could yield more of the same. The Celtics look like a 60 win team, the Patriots will probably go 19-0, and the Red Sox are looking like the early favorite to win the World Series next year. Do I sound like an insufferable Mass-hole yet?
Well it’s not all good. The Red Sox have announced that they will open the season next year in Japan. The last time a team did this, the 2004 Yankees started the season 10-11. That start was due in no small part to the stress of ending spring training early, traveling half way around the world for two games, only to return to the States to restart spring training. There is a silver lining to the series in Japan though. The Sox will get an extra start out of Josh Beckett as he’ll be able to start one of the games in Japan, and the season opener stateside.
In other news, Barry Bonds was indicted Thursday on perjury and obstruction of justice charges. Well Barry, you might not need to boycott the Hall of Fame, as you might not be invited. I wouldn’t get to excited to play ever again either, as you’re probably looking at a 50 game suspension from MLB if you try to play again.
Speaking of drugs, Ricky Williams got reinstated this week. How long can this last? The rest of the season…tops? Don’t get me wrong, there a lot worse things you can do, like HGH, or steroids, or a DUI hit and run where a person died, followed up with another DUI. But we’ll talk about how Leonard Little some other time. That said Ricky isn’t a guy you can count on, although the Dolphins at 0-9 don’t have much to lose.
As for teams with something to lose, Dwight Freeney pretty much seals up the Patriots perfect season. Without Freeney present to draw double and triple teams, the Colts pass rush is only average meaning the Colts would have to blitz to get pressure, and Tom Brady eats up teams that blitz. This could be a 2 touchdown win for the Pats if they meet in January. That meeting is no longer a given with injuries to Harrison and Freeney. I expect the Jaguars and the Titans to give the Colts all they can handle, and one of those teams will win. The AFC South will be the most interesting divisional race in the NFL the rest of the way.
This year gave us the perfect example of why the post-season should count for awards in MLB. C.C. Sabathia and Josh Beckett were dead even during the regular season. Any argument for either has to be biased. The post season should be the tie breaker. Had that been the case, Beckett’s dominant performance in the ALCS combined with the shelling Sabathia took from the Red Sox bats would’ve made the decision easy. The NL Rookie of the Year vote would’ve likely changed dramatically as well. For all Braun’s mighty swings, his Brewers fell from best record right out of the playoffs, while Troy Tulowitzki’s glove and bat helped the Rockies make their improbable run to the World Series.
Monday, November 12, 2007
Sports Universe in Disarray
I think that it’s time to get rid of scholarship restrictions in college football. Parity at the college level is not a good thing. Oregon, Kansas, Missouri, and West Virginia are all ranked ahead of Ohio State, USC, Texas and Michigan. And let’s just forget about that Irish Catholic school in Indiana. College football needs traditional rivalries on a big stage to be at its best. The silver lining however is that this season could provide a simple solution to the debacle that is the BCS. I’m calling on all 3 people reading this to root for LSU to lose and Kansas to fell Missouri and then Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game thus setting up a Kansas v. Oregon National Championship Game. I am certain that such an occurrence (and the non-existent television rating it would receive) would force the NCAA to adopt either an ‘and one’ or playoff format for the championship.
In other news, thank the football gods that the NFL only grants teams one bye week. At least next week we’ll know what’s going to happen in one game, when the Patriots visit Buffalo. Was this the worst weekend of football in NFL history? It’s amazing the things we still don’t know about the NFL. Just six days ago, I was certain that the Colts were the second best team in the NFL. After last night, I’m not sure that they are the best team in the AFC South. They only have a one game lead on Jacksonville and Tennessee and still have to play each of those teams (albeit at home) in the final two weeks of the season.
5 Random Thoughts:
1. We knew that Adam Vinatieri was money in the clutch…until last night that is. What happened there? What’s 29 yards in a drizzle compared to 45 yards in a blizzard? This bears monitoring, I hope that he’s fine and can come back from this even though the better story might be if this were to turn into a Brad Lidge v. Albert Puljos moment for him.
2. I’ve never been less excited for an Ohio State v. Michigan game.
3. Forget the SEC, the Big 12 is the conference to beat. Three teams in the BCS top five! Wow!
4. The Packers are getting scary. All of a sudden they have a running game to complement Favre.
5. I hope Adrian Peterson’s knee is ok. He is awesome to watch when healthy…although if he wants to sit out a few weeks to make me feel better about betting the Vikes to win less than 6.5 games this season, I’d appreciate it.
In other news, thank the football gods that the NFL only grants teams one bye week. At least next week we’ll know what’s going to happen in one game, when the Patriots visit Buffalo. Was this the worst weekend of football in NFL history? It’s amazing the things we still don’t know about the NFL. Just six days ago, I was certain that the Colts were the second best team in the NFL. After last night, I’m not sure that they are the best team in the AFC South. They only have a one game lead on Jacksonville and Tennessee and still have to play each of those teams (albeit at home) in the final two weeks of the season.
5 Random Thoughts:
1. We knew that Adam Vinatieri was money in the clutch…until last night that is. What happened there? What’s 29 yards in a drizzle compared to 45 yards in a blizzard? This bears monitoring, I hope that he’s fine and can come back from this even though the better story might be if this were to turn into a Brad Lidge v. Albert Puljos moment for him.
2. I’ve never been less excited for an Ohio State v. Michigan game.
3. Forget the SEC, the Big 12 is the conference to beat. Three teams in the BCS top five! Wow!
4. The Packers are getting scary. All of a sudden they have a running game to complement Favre.
5. I hope Adrian Peterson’s knee is ok. He is awesome to watch when healthy…although if he wants to sit out a few weeks to make me feel better about betting the Vikes to win less than 6.5 games this season, I’d appreciate it.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Week 10 NFL Picks
Week 10 Picks Against the Spread (HOME teams in caps)
PATRIOTS (9-0) over Bye (1-25):
I could be wrong, but I think that Bye beat the Dolphins. Let’s quickly review last weeks Pats v. Colts game… Brady plays like shit for 3.5 quarters, the ref’s repeatedly make obviously bogus calls against the Pats and non-calls benefiting the Colts, and the Pats still win, in Indy, against the reigning Super Bowl Champs. 19-0 has gone from unlikely possibility to probability. Also, I’ve got a new T-shirt for the Patriots locker room which I think displays their attitude towards the rest of the NFL at this point. The front says “I’m a Patriot.” On the back it says “The ‘P’ stands for Go F--- Yourself!”
PANTHERS (-4) over Falcons:
The day I feel the need to bet money on a team who’s starting QB is Joey Harrington will be the day I ask the devil for snowboard lessons. And since the Falcons are out of it, why not try something new…like lining Warrick Dunn at QB and running the swinging gate offense (where the center, tight end and quarterback line up alone with the rest of the team split to one side of the field) on every play. At the very least this would make the game interesting for a half.
PACKERS (-6) over Vikings:
I know that AP is the second coming of Jim Brown… at least this year until he has a Sophomore Slump and then misses half the season in year 3 due to a freak injury… that being said, the Packers may have the best Cornerback combo in the NFL and can put 9 in the box every play to stymie AP, and kill whichever sorry excuse for a quarterback Minnesota decides to trot out there.
CHIEFS (-3) over Broncos:
I really have no basis on which to make this pick due to all the injuries to both these teams, so I went with Arrowhead in November being the deciding factor.
Bills (-2.5) over DOLPHINS:
See Patriots v. Bye comments… The Dolphins will force the Patriots to wait an extra week to lock up the AFC East, by losing…again.
SAINTS (-11.5) over Rams:
The Saints are back from being the Aints and look like a playoff contender in the Junior Varsity Conference. The Rams still look like a top 5 drafter come April, so I’ll go with the Transitive Property of the Pick the Champ Until He Loses Rule by picking the loser to continue to do so.
Browns (+9.5) over STEELERS:
Do bookies in Vegas use some foreign language where Edwards, Andersen, Winslow, and Lewis rhyme with Boller, McNair, and …uh…whatever the Ravens receivers names are…? I mean this line has to be a mistake.
TITANS (-4) over Jaguars:
This was easy. The Titans are one of the top 4 teams in the AFC and have Vince Young who just wins games. The Jags will trot out a QB with nearly a 2-1 INT to TD ratio, and a 49% completion rate named Quinn who didn’t play at Notre Dame.
REDSKINS (-2.5) over Eagles:
Philly is 2-5 against the Junior Varsity Conference and 0-3 in the NFC East. The Skins still have hope of a playoff birth and position by position are better than Philly at just about every one… including QB. Philly will make my preseason prediction of a Kevin Kolb start in week 14 become a reality by losing 3 of the next 4 to fall to 4-8. Of course they’ll probably lose 3 of their last 4 games no matter who starts at QB.
RAVENS (-4) over Bengals:
This was tough. The Immovable Object (i.e. the Ravens O) v. The Stop-less Farce (i.e. the Bengals D). I was going to take the team with less criminals… tie…or the team with better chemistry…hmm…oh well, home team it is.
Lions (+1) over CARDINALS:
I’m officially on the Jon Kitna Bandwagon. And even if I weren’t, did you see the Cardinals’ stats last week!? 10/30 with 2 picks from Warner? 15 yards rushing from Edge James!? Less than 17 minutes possessing the football!? That’s stats you hold Harvard to as your warm-up game with LSU in NCAA 08. And they are a 1 point underdog to a 6-2 team!? This is free money. Who is making these lines!?
Cowboys (-1.5) over GIANTS:
For all those of you jumping on the Giants bandwagon, I’d like to remind you that the Giants QB is ELI Manning. The Giants got creamed in Dallas, destroyed at home by Green Bay, and most recently failed to score in the second half of a 13-10 victory over the Miami-Dade Junior High School All County team! Cowboys win by at least a touchdown.
Bears (-3) over RAIDERS:
You have to score points to win. It sounds simple I know, but I just can’t see the Raiders doing it, regardless of how far the Bears’ D has fallen. I’ll take da Bears 13-3.
Colts (-3.5) over CHARGERS:
Norv Turner, Phil Rivers, and LT (who apparently turned 32 this off-season - not 28 as we were led to believe) just got destroyed by a team which has no quarterback. Now they’ll go up against one of the top two signal callers in the league who’s surrounded with weapons and a defense that’s pissed at letting one get away in the fourth quarter last week. Teams around the NFL have realized that Rivers can’t hurt them and as a result, LT has twice as many rushing days under 63 yards as he has 100 yard games. Colts win this one in a laugher.
49ers (+10) over SEAHAWKS:
The Seahawks aren’t that good, and the 49ers aren’t quite that bad…close, but not quite.
Straight up take Panthers, Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Saints, Steelers, Titans, Redskins, Ravens, Colts, Seahawks, Lions, and Cowboys, and Bears… oh my!
PATRIOTS (9-0) over Bye (1-25):
I could be wrong, but I think that Bye beat the Dolphins. Let’s quickly review last weeks Pats v. Colts game… Brady plays like shit for 3.5 quarters, the ref’s repeatedly make obviously bogus calls against the Pats and non-calls benefiting the Colts, and the Pats still win, in Indy, against the reigning Super Bowl Champs. 19-0 has gone from unlikely possibility to probability. Also, I’ve got a new T-shirt for the Patriots locker room which I think displays their attitude towards the rest of the NFL at this point. The front says “I’m a Patriot.” On the back it says “The ‘P’ stands for Go F--- Yourself!”
PANTHERS (-4) over Falcons:
The day I feel the need to bet money on a team who’s starting QB is Joey Harrington will be the day I ask the devil for snowboard lessons. And since the Falcons are out of it, why not try something new…like lining Warrick Dunn at QB and running the swinging gate offense (where the center, tight end and quarterback line up alone with the rest of the team split to one side of the field) on every play. At the very least this would make the game interesting for a half.
PACKERS (-6) over Vikings:
I know that AP is the second coming of Jim Brown… at least this year until he has a Sophomore Slump and then misses half the season in year 3 due to a freak injury… that being said, the Packers may have the best Cornerback combo in the NFL and can put 9 in the box every play to stymie AP, and kill whichever sorry excuse for a quarterback Minnesota decides to trot out there.
CHIEFS (-3) over Broncos:
I really have no basis on which to make this pick due to all the injuries to both these teams, so I went with Arrowhead in November being the deciding factor.
Bills (-2.5) over DOLPHINS:
See Patriots v. Bye comments… The Dolphins will force the Patriots to wait an extra week to lock up the AFC East, by losing…again.
SAINTS (-11.5) over Rams:
The Saints are back from being the Aints and look like a playoff contender in the Junior Varsity Conference. The Rams still look like a top 5 drafter come April, so I’ll go with the Transitive Property of the Pick the Champ Until He Loses Rule by picking the loser to continue to do so.
Browns (+9.5) over STEELERS:
Do bookies in Vegas use some foreign language where Edwards, Andersen, Winslow, and Lewis rhyme with Boller, McNair, and …uh…whatever the Ravens receivers names are…? I mean this line has to be a mistake.
TITANS (-4) over Jaguars:
This was easy. The Titans are one of the top 4 teams in the AFC and have Vince Young who just wins games. The Jags will trot out a QB with nearly a 2-1 INT to TD ratio, and a 49% completion rate named Quinn who didn’t play at Notre Dame.
REDSKINS (-2.5) over Eagles:
Philly is 2-5 against the Junior Varsity Conference and 0-3 in the NFC East. The Skins still have hope of a playoff birth and position by position are better than Philly at just about every one… including QB. Philly will make my preseason prediction of a Kevin Kolb start in week 14 become a reality by losing 3 of the next 4 to fall to 4-8. Of course they’ll probably lose 3 of their last 4 games no matter who starts at QB.
RAVENS (-4) over Bengals:
This was tough. The Immovable Object (i.e. the Ravens O) v. The Stop-less Farce (i.e. the Bengals D). I was going to take the team with less criminals… tie…or the team with better chemistry…hmm…oh well, home team it is.
Lions (+1) over CARDINALS:
I’m officially on the Jon Kitna Bandwagon. And even if I weren’t, did you see the Cardinals’ stats last week!? 10/30 with 2 picks from Warner? 15 yards rushing from Edge James!? Less than 17 minutes possessing the football!? That’s stats you hold Harvard to as your warm-up game with LSU in NCAA 08. And they are a 1 point underdog to a 6-2 team!? This is free money. Who is making these lines!?
Cowboys (-1.5) over GIANTS:
For all those of you jumping on the Giants bandwagon, I’d like to remind you that the Giants QB is ELI Manning. The Giants got creamed in Dallas, destroyed at home by Green Bay, and most recently failed to score in the second half of a 13-10 victory over the Miami-Dade Junior High School All County team! Cowboys win by at least a touchdown.
Bears (-3) over RAIDERS:
You have to score points to win. It sounds simple I know, but I just can’t see the Raiders doing it, regardless of how far the Bears’ D has fallen. I’ll take da Bears 13-3.
Colts (-3.5) over CHARGERS:
Norv Turner, Phil Rivers, and LT (who apparently turned 32 this off-season - not 28 as we were led to believe) just got destroyed by a team which has no quarterback. Now they’ll go up against one of the top two signal callers in the league who’s surrounded with weapons and a defense that’s pissed at letting one get away in the fourth quarter last week. Teams around the NFL have realized that Rivers can’t hurt them and as a result, LT has twice as many rushing days under 63 yards as he has 100 yard games. Colts win this one in a laugher.
49ers (+10) over SEAHAWKS:
The Seahawks aren’t that good, and the 49ers aren’t quite that bad…close, but not quite.
Straight up take Panthers, Packers, Chiefs, Bills, Saints, Steelers, Titans, Redskins, Ravens, Colts, Seahawks, Lions, and Cowboys, and Bears… oh my!
Pros and Cons
No this isn’t about the Cincinnati Bengals of 2006, the Dallas Cowboys of the 1990’s, or the Miami Hurricanes of…well pick a decade. I’m talking about decisions being made by the Boston Red Sox as the off season progresses.
Curt Schilling and the Boston Red Sox made a mutually beneficial decision this week. By re-signing Schilling to a 1-year deal at a CHEAP $8 million (by contrast, Derek Lowe of the LA Dodgers will make over $9 million, and Paul 'HGH' Byrd of the Cleveland Indians will make over $7 million next year) the Red Sox have ensured flexibility among the starting pitching in 2008 similar to that which allowed them to survive pitching injuries in 2004 and 2007, and the lack of which killed them in 2006. Schilling for his part took less guaranteed money than he likely would have gotten on the open market to remain with a team with which he won his 2nd and 3rd World Series Championships, and a team which will be the favorite entering the 2008 season. Schilling, already a rich man, appears to have realized something few other athletes do these days (are you listening Johnny Damon?). Schilling appears to have realized that while the additional 4-6 million he might have gotten in free agency might allow him to buy more STUFF, that stuff could never bring him the joy that the possibility of another ring in Boston could yield.
Consider for a minute the opportunities Schilling would have lost by going to Arizona or Philly. Sure, both of these teams will return young, division championship caliber teams next year, and will likely be in the playoff hunt. But being as both got swept out of the playoffs this year by a team which subsequently got swept (recall the D-Backs swept the Phillies before being swept by the Rockies who were of course swept by Schilling’s Red Sox) is there any reason to believe that either of these teams is one 41 year old Curt Schilling away from a World Series Ring? With the Red Sox however, Schilling returns to team which returns its’ top 7 starting pitchers: Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Lester, Wakefield, Buchholz and Tavarez. The Red Sox are talking about a 6 man rotation! More on that later…
I think there are some likely by-products of Schilling retiring as a Red Sox after next season:
1. Hall of Fame induction as a Red Sox. Schilling can be reasonably expected to reach 230 wins and surpass 3200 strikeouts in 2008, and with a reputation as a premier post-season pitcher with 3 (or 4?) World Series rings, HoF induction should be a near certainty.
2. The number 38 being added to the numbers 1, 4, 8, 9, 27, and 42 in right field. The pitcher whose addition sparked the Red Sox first two World Series Championship in 86 years could very well warrant such an honor.
3. Money. Is there anything Schilling wouldn’t be able to sell in New England?
4. Politics? Schilling has never been one to keep his opinions to himself, and where better to let people know what you think than Congress. Jack Kemp, Steve Largent, and Tom Osborne are just a few former sports figures who’ve made a successful jump from the field to Capitol Hill. You think this couldn’t happen in Massachusetts? Where the Sox are religion?
Now about the possibility of the six-man rotation. This is a worse idea than... well… pretty much anything Britney Trainwreck – er - Spears has done in the last two years… Think of the Pros and Cons of keeping Wakefield in the rotation, and consequently Doug Mirabelli on the roster:
1. Pro: Experienced catcher with some pop left in his bat catching a veteran starting pitcher with a history of success against the Yankees
2. Con: A 37 year old catcher hitting below .250 catching an aging knuckleballer coming off an injury, while holding a roster spot which could otherwise be filled with a young catcher who could use the next two years as Jason Varitek’s understudy to both become a student of pitching as Varitek is, and to build a rapport with the young members of the Sox rotation.
3. Pro: 6 starters would keep aging arms Wakefield and Schilling, and Matsuzaka, who is used to a 6 man rotation in Japan, on longer rest keeping them fresher for September through November.
4. Con: 6 fewer starts from Josh Beckett over the course of the season, and the 6 man rotation would only be for one year until Schilling, and likely Wakefield retire and the Sox return to a 5 man rotation. This would also make the transition to a 3 or 4 man rotation in the playoffs more stressful on a Sox rotation used to 5 days rest between starts.
5. Pro: Sorry, I’ve run out of these…
6. Con: A 5 man rotation of Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Lester, and Buchholz would put Wakefield and Tavarez in the bullpen. Lester, Schilling, and Matsuzaka were more often than not 5-6 inning pitchers this year. Buchholz coming off a tired arm which cost him a possible playoff roster spot. It is likely that there will be plenty of 6th and 7th innings in need of eating in 2008. Both Wakefield and Tavarez have shown an ability to pitch multiple innings on multiple days in a row. Indications are that this will be a useful trait in 2008. Also, all five men in that rotation have the ability to hit 91-97 on the radar gun with varying frequency. Imagine facing that kind of heat in your first two at-bats then getting Wakefield’s 59 mph knuckleball in your third at-bat before having to ramp back up to deal with Papelbon’s 98 mph gas in the 9th inning. It’s a lot easier to adjust to a 30 mph change in speed in 24 hours (i.e. Wakefield as a starter), than making that adjustment in 24 minutes.
Finally, a few random thoughts on “player” movement:
-A-Rod to the Red Sox…please God NO!!!
-Dennis Rodman to the WNBA... well he’s already worn a wedding dress, why not?
-Miguel Tejada to the Yankees… yeah ‘cause the last time the Yankees signed a former MVP shortstop it went really well…
-KG and Ray Allen to Boston… I think that Red Auerbach has possessed Danny Ainge’s body; I mean is there any other way this happened?
-Kobe to anywhere but LA… if you’re “anywhere” how do you not do this, if you’re LA how can you?
-Chris Henry back to Cincinnati… so what’s the over under ‘til his next suspension? I’m calling it at 4.5 games, and leaning towards the under.
-The Patriots to New York in week 15 and to Miami in week 16… Between Mangini and Shula, I’m putting the over/under for combined points scored by the Pats in these games at 132.5, and the over/under on total handshakes at… negative infinity.
-Brad Lidge to the Phillies… so a guy who crumbled in the pressure cooker of Astros v. Cardinals is going to turn it around in a town that booed Santa?
Curt Schilling and the Boston Red Sox made a mutually beneficial decision this week. By re-signing Schilling to a 1-year deal at a CHEAP $8 million (by contrast, Derek Lowe of the LA Dodgers will make over $9 million, and Paul 'HGH' Byrd of the Cleveland Indians will make over $7 million next year) the Red Sox have ensured flexibility among the starting pitching in 2008 similar to that which allowed them to survive pitching injuries in 2004 and 2007, and the lack of which killed them in 2006. Schilling for his part took less guaranteed money than he likely would have gotten on the open market to remain with a team with which he won his 2nd and 3rd World Series Championships, and a team which will be the favorite entering the 2008 season. Schilling, already a rich man, appears to have realized something few other athletes do these days (are you listening Johnny Damon?). Schilling appears to have realized that while the additional 4-6 million he might have gotten in free agency might allow him to buy more STUFF, that stuff could never bring him the joy that the possibility of another ring in Boston could yield.
Consider for a minute the opportunities Schilling would have lost by going to Arizona or Philly. Sure, both of these teams will return young, division championship caliber teams next year, and will likely be in the playoff hunt. But being as both got swept out of the playoffs this year by a team which subsequently got swept (recall the D-Backs swept the Phillies before being swept by the Rockies who were of course swept by Schilling’s Red Sox) is there any reason to believe that either of these teams is one 41 year old Curt Schilling away from a World Series Ring? With the Red Sox however, Schilling returns to team which returns its’ top 7 starting pitchers: Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Lester, Wakefield, Buchholz and Tavarez. The Red Sox are talking about a 6 man rotation! More on that later…
I think there are some likely by-products of Schilling retiring as a Red Sox after next season:
1. Hall of Fame induction as a Red Sox. Schilling can be reasonably expected to reach 230 wins and surpass 3200 strikeouts in 2008, and with a reputation as a premier post-season pitcher with 3 (or 4?) World Series rings, HoF induction should be a near certainty.
2. The number 38 being added to the numbers 1, 4, 8, 9, 27, and 42 in right field. The pitcher whose addition sparked the Red Sox first two World Series Championship in 86 years could very well warrant such an honor.
3. Money. Is there anything Schilling wouldn’t be able to sell in New England?
4. Politics? Schilling has never been one to keep his opinions to himself, and where better to let people know what you think than Congress. Jack Kemp, Steve Largent, and Tom Osborne are just a few former sports figures who’ve made a successful jump from the field to Capitol Hill. You think this couldn’t happen in Massachusetts? Where the Sox are religion?
Now about the possibility of the six-man rotation. This is a worse idea than... well… pretty much anything Britney Trainwreck – er - Spears has done in the last two years… Think of the Pros and Cons of keeping Wakefield in the rotation, and consequently Doug Mirabelli on the roster:
1. Pro: Experienced catcher with some pop left in his bat catching a veteran starting pitcher with a history of success against the Yankees
2. Con: A 37 year old catcher hitting below .250 catching an aging knuckleballer coming off an injury, while holding a roster spot which could otherwise be filled with a young catcher who could use the next two years as Jason Varitek’s understudy to both become a student of pitching as Varitek is, and to build a rapport with the young members of the Sox rotation.
3. Pro: 6 starters would keep aging arms Wakefield and Schilling, and Matsuzaka, who is used to a 6 man rotation in Japan, on longer rest keeping them fresher for September through November.
4. Con: 6 fewer starts from Josh Beckett over the course of the season, and the 6 man rotation would only be for one year until Schilling, and likely Wakefield retire and the Sox return to a 5 man rotation. This would also make the transition to a 3 or 4 man rotation in the playoffs more stressful on a Sox rotation used to 5 days rest between starts.
5. Pro: Sorry, I’ve run out of these…
6. Con: A 5 man rotation of Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, Lester, and Buchholz would put Wakefield and Tavarez in the bullpen. Lester, Schilling, and Matsuzaka were more often than not 5-6 inning pitchers this year. Buchholz coming off a tired arm which cost him a possible playoff roster spot. It is likely that there will be plenty of 6th and 7th innings in need of eating in 2008. Both Wakefield and Tavarez have shown an ability to pitch multiple innings on multiple days in a row. Indications are that this will be a useful trait in 2008. Also, all five men in that rotation have the ability to hit 91-97 on the radar gun with varying frequency. Imagine facing that kind of heat in your first two at-bats then getting Wakefield’s 59 mph knuckleball in your third at-bat before having to ramp back up to deal with Papelbon’s 98 mph gas in the 9th inning. It’s a lot easier to adjust to a 30 mph change in speed in 24 hours (i.e. Wakefield as a starter), than making that adjustment in 24 minutes.
Finally, a few random thoughts on “player” movement:
-A-Rod to the Red Sox…please God NO!!!
-Dennis Rodman to the WNBA... well he’s already worn a wedding dress, why not?
-Miguel Tejada to the Yankees… yeah ‘cause the last time the Yankees signed a former MVP shortstop it went really well…
-KG and Ray Allen to Boston… I think that Red Auerbach has possessed Danny Ainge’s body; I mean is there any other way this happened?
-Kobe to anywhere but LA… if you’re “anywhere” how do you not do this, if you’re LA how can you?
-Chris Henry back to Cincinnati… so what’s the over under ‘til his next suspension? I’m calling it at 4.5 games, and leaning towards the under.
-The Patriots to New York in week 15 and to Miami in week 16… Between Mangini and Shula, I’m putting the over/under for combined points scored by the Pats in these games at 132.5, and the over/under on total handshakes at… negative infinity.
-Brad Lidge to the Phillies… so a guy who crumbled in the pressure cooker of Astros v. Cardinals is going to turn it around in a town that booed Santa?
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