MLB Winter Meetings Preview

Dan Haren’s name has been tossed around as a “cheaper” alternative to Santana, possibly for the team that comes in second in the Santana Sweepstakes. Allow me to be perfectly clear: F#$% THAT! (Ok, maybe all the non-letter symbols isn't perfectly clear, but if you don't get it leave your email address in the comments and I'll explain further) On the surface, this looks ok. Last year, Haren went 15-9, Santana went 15-13. Haren’s ERA was 3.07, Santana’s was 3.33. Haren threw 222 innings to Santana’s 219. But if you dig a little deeper, these two pitchers aren’t close to equal. Alright, Haren had an awesome first half last year (10-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .205 BAA). But his second half (5-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .298 BAA) was mediocre at best. While Santana was consistent in a down year, Haren was all over the place posting an ERA over 4.00 in three months while posting an ERA under 1.70 in two months. Neither pitcher was good down the stretch in September. A closer look though shows that Santana’s WHIP barely budged after the break (from 1.01 to 1.12), and while Haren’s BAA jumped by nearly 50%, Santana’s moved by less than 10 % after the Break. Yes, Haren is locked up for the next three years (~$16M) for less than 1 year of Santana will cost after a new deal is worked out, but the A’s are expecting a prospect package similar to that which Santana will draw. As a Red Sox fan I can only say that I hope that anyone but the Yankees gets Santana just so that Hank and George Steinbrenner will be that much more motivated to over-pay for Haren.

On to some of my expectations for the winter meetings…

Chances* That Player X Will Be Traded:
Johan Santana 90%
Miguel Cabrera 67%
Miguel Tejada 33%
Ervin Santana 80%
Coco Crisp 95%
Erik Bedard 25%
Dan Haren 50%
Joe Blanton 10%
Jon Lester 40%
Clay Buchholz 40%
Juan Uribe 100%
Gerald Laird 33%
Luke Scott 50%
Ben Broussard 40%
Chris Capuano 33%
Joe Nathan 50%
Scott Rolen 45%
Jacoby Ellsbury 4%
Jonny Gomes 10%
Cliff Lee 25%
Scott Kazmir 1%
Manny Ramirez 1%

*Note all numbers are based on virtually nothing

Santana is going to be the key in the winter meetings. If/when he gets dealt; floodgates on deals will burst wide open.
A few scenarios:
If someone other than the Angels lands Santana, then LA of Anaheim will be clear to unload for Miguel Cabrera. And as soon as Cabrera goes, expect the trigger to be quick for someone to acquire Scott Rolen.

If the Red Sox land Santana, expect the Hank Steinbrenner to promise his first born son to get Dan Haren, and another pitcher from the Joe Blanton, Erik Bedard, AJ Burnett, Ervin Santana class too.

If the Yankees land Santana, they will know what they have available to trade for someone from the Blanton, Bedard, Burnett, E. Santana group. Here’s a side thought: anyone else think Andy Petitte is just waiting to see how the Santana situation unfolds to decide if he wants to come back. Why come back at his age and health status to pitch his heart out only to have the other 4 guys in the rotation get shelled night in, night out? The Yankees acquisition of Santana would also allow the Red Sox to either move on to the possibility of a Haren trade (hopefully not) as well as allowing them to start filling out their bench (since they will have a better idea of their available payroll) and look for another home for Coco Crisp.

Just for fun, I’ll start another trade rumor that has about a .0001% chance of happening:
To Minnesota (from): 2B/SS Tony Granadillo(B-AA), CF Willy Tavarez (C), 3B Garret Atkins (C), SP Michael Bowden (B-AA) & SP Jon Lester (B)
To Colorado (from): SP Justin Masterson (B-AA), SS Jed Lowrie (B-AA), CF Coco Crisp (B) & RP Craig Hansen (B-AAA)
To Boston (from): RP Brian Fuentes (C), C Chris Ianetta (C) & SP Johan Santana (M)

Why it could work:
Tavarez, Atkins, Bowden and Lester would all be on the Twins 25 man roster on opening day, and Granadillo could be there by the All-Star Break in 2009.

Masterson would be in the rotation for Colorado on Opening Day 2008 . Crisp's ability to hit a steadier diet of fastballs would allow him to replace Tavarez (who was never able to hold onto an every day job anyway). Lowrie would be the spring training favorite to start at 2B with the departure of Kaz Matsui, and Hansen would be on the short list to work the 7th or 8th in Coors. Trading Atkins at peak value (pre-arbitration) would allow the Rockies to move Ian Stewart into the every day lineup at 3B. Resigning Yorvit Torrealba for two years with a team option for a third allows the Rockies to deal Ianetta while waiting to see if Edwin Bellorin can put together another season like 2007 at AAA Colorado Springs. Fuentes lost his closer job to Manny Corpas and the Rockies need to dump his salary($3.5M in 2007).

Santana is obvious for Boston, while Ianetta would be the ideal understudy and eventual replacement for Varitek and Fuentes would allow the Sox to deal or drop inconsistent Javier Lopez.