Week 13 NFL Picks

Week 13 Against the Spread (HOME team in caps)
Lions (+3.5) over VIKINGS:
I hate this game. The free-falling Lions v. the suddenly luke-warm Vikes. If AP isn’t playing, this is a no-brainer, but he is playing. I don’t like it, but I’ll take the points against Tavaris Jackson.

RAMS (-3) over Falcons:
Frerotte v. Harrington. If you bet on this game you have a gambling problem. Get help.

Texans (+4) over TITANS:
I’ve bet on the Vince Young who only wins games three weeks in a row. Apparently he retired after his rookie season. He couldn’t even keep it close against the Bengals. I’ll bet against him and the Titans will win by two touchdowns. That’s the way this year is going.

Jets (+1) over DOLPHINS:
So much for the “Man-genius.” A year after going to the playoffs, the Jets are an underdog to a 0-11 team.

REDSKINS (-5.5) over Bills:
See Rams v. Falcons.

CHARGERS (-5.5) over Chiefs:
The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7, and the Chiefs are coming off of a loss to the Raiders. ‘Nuff said.

Jaguars (+6.5) over COLTS:
This game should decide the AFC South. The Colts are beat up on both sides of the ball, and Harrison will not play again this week. David Garrard’s decision making has been Manning/Brady-esque in recent weeks. My heart says Jags, but my brain says Colts. Can you imagine the Colts as a Wild Card team? Me neither, but I’ll take the points as the Jags keep it close only to lose late on a Vinatieri field goal.

Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES:
A week after coaching the game of his life, Andy Reid makes one of the worst coaching decisions of his career: benching the hot hand…alright, how about warm hand… in AJ Feeley to trot out a walking wounded Donovan McNabb. McNabb will be on the bench by the half, but the Eagles will be down two scores or more, and even the great …uh…slightly better than mediocre AJ Feeley won’t be able to lead them back.
Fantasy Note: Shawn Alexander is back for this game, but expect him to be a decoy and Maurice Morris will still do most of the heavy lifting.

PANTHERS (-3) over 49ers:
Vinny T v. Trent Dilfer. See Redskins v. Bills… catching onto the theme yet? This week sucks.

SAINTS (-3) over Buccaneers:
I feel queasy betting on Jeff Garcia under the best of circumstances. But as a game time decision? When the backup QB options are some guy out of Toledo that you’ve never heard of (sporting a 52.4 QB rating) and the lesser of the McCown brothers… gotta go with the Saints in this one.

Browns (PK) over CARDINALS:
How is the over/under on this game not in the 80’s. 1,000 yards of total combined offense isn’t a possibility, it’s a probability. This has 45-42 written all over it. I’ll take the Browns in the most exciting game of the day.

RAIDERS (+3.5) over Broncos:
My future niece (due in about 5 months) just used Morse code to ask why Mike Shanahan is kicking to Devin Hester. The Broncos will fail to right the ship after last week’s gut wrenching loss.

Giants (-1.5) over BEARS:
Another battle between quarterbacks I refuse to bet on. Still, how is this line so close? As long as the Giants learn from Mike Shanahan’s mistakes, this is a double digit victory for the “G-men”.

STEELERS (-7) over Bengals:
The Steelers have already won by 11 in Cincy. The Steelers are also looking to bounce back from a couple sub standard weeks against bad teams.

Patriots (-20.5) over RAVENS:
The Pats are 9-2 against the spread. The Ravens offense is abysmal. In fact the Ravens may want to dress two punters for this game. Sam Koch could be the first ever punter to suffer from a tired leg from all the work he’s going to get.

Last Week: 7-9 ATS

For those of you who don’t know, Bill Simmons did a Marathon Live Chat to benefit the Jimmy V Foundation on ESPN.com 28 Nov. This was a question and Bill’s answer. The next day, the Knicks lost 104-59 to the Celtics…
Otis (Toronto, ON): This is dedication: 1. Start your chat at the office while closing door to office and declaring a "brainstorming session" 2. Continue on the commmute home via blackberry 3. Continue chat on the home computer, taking breaks for smokes and steaks that being said, how close are we to having the Knicks banished to the WNBA?
Bill Simmons: (12:29 PM ET ) That a boy, Otis! I like the idea of banishing the Knicks to the WNBA - Renaldo Balkman would be the 10th most attractive player in the league.