Week 14 NFL Picks A and other stuff...

Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread A (HOME team in caps)

Bears (+3) over REDSKINS:
Yet another example of the Super Bowl losers’ curse rears its’ ugly head. Injuries have decimated the Bears secondary, and Rex Grossman would have to run the table to have any chance at being a Bear next year. Cedric Benson is officially a bust. On the other hand, after a 4-2 start, the Redskins have lost 5 of 6 (including 4 straight) and are an overtime win against the lowly J-E-T-S (lose-lose-lose) from a 6 game losing streak. Last week the ‘Skins had emotion on their side, but a last second field goal crushed their spirit. I think both of these teams are done, but Joe Gibbs probably lost his team at the end of last weeks game, and I don’t see them recovering in a short week made shorter by Sean Taylor’s funeral. On a side note: if the Skins lose this game they will end the season on an eight game losing streak with games at the Giants and Vikes before finishing at home with Dallas.

Other Thoughts:
1. The Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade makes the Detroit Tigers a legit power in the American League. But does it really make them the favorite? Remember the Yankees have had the most potent lineup in baseball for several years and they haven't made it to the World Series since 2003, and even that required a herculean effort in their comeback in game 7 of the ALCS and more importantly Grady Little making the worst coaching move since Bob Stanley entered game 6 of the 1986 World Series. For all the Tigers offensive firepower in 2008, we have seen that it is pitching that wins championships. The Tigers will have exactly ZERO starting pitchers next year who are coming off of a season in which they posted an ERA under 3.60. They have two starters coming off seasons with an ERA over 4.00, and two more coming off seasons with an ERA over 5.00, and one of those (Willis) did it in the National League in which you really only need to pitch to 7.5 guys in the lineup.

2. Yohan Santana hasn't been moved much to my surprise. The Twins MUST trade him or re-sign him before the season starts. No way they will get nearly the package back at the deadline because they won't be able to offer him up as a guy you can re-sign just months before hitting the open market. I still think he'll get traded, especially with the strength of the AL Central, but if the Twins are thinking to compete, then they best get moving. They will have to sign Barry Bonds to DH and Aaron Rowand to play CF. They'll need to go get Carlos Silva, and probably an arm or two for the pen. These moves would cost in the $100 million neighborhood for the lives of these contracts. Basically, with as cheap as the Twins have been, there's no way they'll make the moves necessary to make a run in the Central. Now if they resign Santana for 6 years $135 million, they might (though I doubt it) be in position to make a run at a serious bat in a few years when they've got the added revenue from the new stadium. But by then, Santana will be in his mid-30's, and they'll have to pay Morneau and Mauer too. I just don't see it. Maybe they are waiting for someone to get desperate, but I think the Twins have badly misplayed their hand here. They had the Red Sox ready to give up 5 players including 3 or 4 guys who would make the Opening Day 2008 roster and couldn't pull the trigger. They were going to get 95 cents on the dollar at least, and now they'll be lucky to get 80 cents on the dollar. Less if they wait til after Opening Day.

3. I'll give you the 2007 lines of a pair of Gold Glove caliber center fielders.
85 runs, 28 SB, 7 3B, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 28 SB, .268 BA, .712 OPS
83 runs, 27 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 5 SB, .222 BA, .724 OPS
Which would you rather have? Now if I told you that the first guy would make $10 million over the next two year and the other would make $36.2 million. Is anyone not taking the first guy? The first guy is Coco Crisp, and the Dodgers just paid more 3.5 times as much for the same amount of time and pretty much the same stat line trading steals and batting average for home runs. The RBI are more a factor of where these guys batted in their respective lineups. With the way this deal will drive up the contract values of guys like Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, did Coco's value just rise considerably in the trade discussion with the Twins about Santana?