NBA Playoff Picks - Part 2

Second Round:
Celtics over the Cavs in 6. There’s no need to me to add to the gushing about LeBron, so I’ll get to the point. KG, Pierce and Ray Allen are going to dominate King James’ supporting cast.

Pistons over Orlando in 6. I know it’s not exciting picking chalk, but Detroit and Boston have been considerably better than everyone else in the East this year.

Lakers over Suns in 7. When I think of the matchups up front Gasol v Stoudamire, Bynum v Shaq it’s tough not to take Phoenix, but Kobe is the equalizer and in Game 7 I’ll take him at home to create some last minute magic.

Rockets over Mavs in 6. Tracy McGrady is finally getting out of the first round, so why stop there?

Conference Finals:
Celtics over Pistons in 7. A couple predictions, both teams will win a game on the road, and neither team will sniff a 100 point game.

Lakers over Rockets in 7. Kobe has a dominant big man again. He gets it done with a little help up front.

NBA Finals:
Celtics over Lakers in 6. The Finals that the League is salivating over comes to pass. The Celtics are 25-5 against the West. The Celtics are 31-10 on the road. The Celtics will take a game at Staples Center and take care of business at home.

NBA Playoff Picks

So I finally stuck David Ortiz on my fantasy baseball bench last night. A grand slam and five RBIs later, I’m convinced that my team is cursed. My top two picks, Miguel Cabrera and Ortiz aren’t even hitting .400 combined! John Maine, AJ Burnett, Jon Lester (already been cut), and and Scott Kazmir’s DL stint isn’t helping either. Other than Xavier Nady, my Free Agent pick-ups (Mike Jacobs, Ryan Doumit, Ryan Dempster, Mark Lowe and Gerald Laird) have failed to pay dividends. Enough ranting. On to the NBA…

First Round:
Let’s keep it simple. The top 4 teams in the East are advancing. In fact, only the Wizards have a chance to go beyond 5 games. Cavs in 6, Celtics and Pistons will sweep and Orlando wins in 5.

Lakers in 5 over the Nuggets.

My surprise pick is the Mavs in 6 over New Orleans. Sorry Chris Paul, but I’ll take the experience of Dirk, Kidd, et al. in the playoffs. It has to be in 6 though, ‘cause if this goes 7, my faith in the Mavs on the road falters. My buddy Snow also assures me that the Finals will be Mavs, Pistons, so I have to have Dallas getting out of the first round…right?

Rockets over Jazz in 7. This should be a great series, and of all the first round match-ups, this is the one I’m most looking forward to watching.

Suns over Spurs in 7. Believe in Shaq. The Spurs stars are beat up, and the Diesel will beat them up a little more.

The rest of the bracket tomorrow…

MLB Predictions

Now that we’re a week or so into baseball season… or 48 hours… or 1 hour if you’re Hank Steinbrenner and you still think the universe revolves around the Yankees, it’s about time to make my predictions for the 2008 season.

AL East: Red Sox – The Sox have potential to either win the World Series or finish third in the AL East. If Beckett gets healthy, Manny and Papi return to form, Dice-K has the kind of second year in Boston that Beckett had, and the kids (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz and Lester) perform up to expectations, the Sox could win 100 games. If none of those things happen, the Sox will struggle to stay above .500. I’m leaning towards the 100 wins.

AL Central: Indians – They were up 3 games to 1 on the Red Sox in the ALCS last year. Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner should rebound, and if Eric Wedge plays it smart and keeps C.C. Sabathia somewhat rested entering the playoffs, the Indians should be back in the ALCS.

AL West: Angels – Is anyone surprised that Kelvim Escobar is hurt again? Is there a more over-rated centerfield bat than Torii Hunter? If the Angels weren’t playing in the worst division outside the NL Central, this pick would really worry me.

Wild Card: Mariners – I know this sounds weird after saying that the AL West is the worst division in the AL. But the Blue Jays and Rays are going to beat up on the Yankees enough to keep a second AL East team out of the playoffs. I’ll get to the Tigers in a moment… but King Felix is set for a breakout year as the Mariners #2 starter, and if Richie Sexton can return to form, Seattle could make a run at the AL West title. Playing nearly 40 games against the A’s and Rangers won’t hurt either.

Biggest Disappointment: Tigers - Sorry, but Dontrelle Willis in the middle of an AL rotation? He might not win 5 games, and without Fernando Rodney and Joel Zumaya til the All-Star Break or later? Huge line-up, no back end of the rotation, and poor bull-pen…haven’t the Yankees been trying this for most of the decade?

Biggest Surprise: Rays – Tampa Bay finally has pitching and bats. And everyone is young. If Scott Kazmir comes back soon and healthy, the Rays will finish over .500 and in 3^rd place in the AL East.

NL East: Mets – Santana could win 25+ games in the NL. He should never be allowed to swing a bat. If he gets injured swinging a bat or running the bases, Omar Minaya just might William Foster (Michael Douglas) in Falling Down on Willie Randolph in the parking lot after the game.

NL Central: Cubs – I would have taken the Brewers but then they signed Eric “the Human Torch” Gagne to close for them. The $10 million he’ll “earn” this season makes him the most overpaid player in the world of sports (non-Kieth Van Horn class). Kerry Wood’s arm should fall off any minute now which would be addition by subtraction allowing Carlos Marmol to close. While the Cubs rotation isn’t great, they get to play 70+ games against the Pirates, Reds, Astros, and Cardinals. That’s gotta be 50 wins right there. They won’t even have to go .500 against the rest of their schedule to win the NL Central.

NL West: Diamondbacks – Webb and Haren will be great as usual. Micah Owings could be special. If they get anything from Randy Johnson, this rotation could be absolutely terrifying.

Wild Card: Dodgers – Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, and Chad Billingsley match up pretty well with any rotation in the game. They’ve got some depth all over the field with Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre coming off the bench.

Biggest Disappointment: Rockies – The Rockies had a magical year last year. I don’t see them repeating it this year with all the pitching in the AL West. Honorable mention to the Phillies, Braves and Brewers.

Biggest Surprise: Nobody – The NL is the Haves and the Have Nots. The playoff teams listed above along with the Phillies, Braves and Brewers are all in the hunt. No one else is even decent.

AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett – With Santana out of the league, this is pretty much a two horse race between C.C. Sabathia and Beckett. If it’s as close as it was last year, Beckett’s post-season performance from 2007 will be the deciding factor.

NL Cy Young: Johan Santana – See previous statement about 25+ wins. This won’t be close, in fact the voters might not award a second place vote. Santana is going to be that much better than the field.

AL MVP: Manny Ramirez – In a walk year (sort of) Manny will put up triple crown challenging numbers batting behind David Ortiz and in front of the resurgent J.D. Drew.

NL MVP: Johan Santana – 25 Wins!? No question, if Santana wins 25 games and throws 220 innings he will win the MVP in a run-away.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jacoby Ellsbury – Ok so maybe this is a homer pick, but if Ellsbury hits .315 with 12 homers, 60 RBI and steals 35 bases (and I don’t think these numbers are a stretch) he’ll be a shoe-in to be the second ROY to come out of Pawtucket in as many years.

NL Rookie of the Year: Kosuke Fukudome – Described as a cross between Hideki Matsui and Ichiro? That either means a guy with no speed who can’t hit it out of the infield (that’s bad) or a speedy guy who can hit 15-25 homeruns. Batting 4^th in the Cubs lineup won’t hurt, so I’ll take a flier on the 30 year old “rookie.”

ALDS: Red Sox over Mariners (in 3) and Indians over Angels (in 3)
NLDS: Mets over Dodgers (in 4) & Diamondbacks over Cubs (in 4)
ALCS: Red Sox over Indians (in 6)
NLDS: Mets over Diamondbacks (in 7)
WS: Red Sox over Mets (in 6)

Fantasy Pitcher Rankings:

Fantasy Pitcher Rankings:

Time for my annual fantasy rankings. I’ll be posting one position per day as well as giving draft advice. My method is proven, having won my head to head fantasy league 3 straight years before teaching my fiancé how to play last season only to have her use my rankings against me and take the Championship. This year I’ll look to rebound from last year’s disappointing 2^nd place finish.

Pitching is by far the deepest and most volatile of all the positions. You should never reach to draft a pitcher because there is bound to be another guy almost as good available next round. I’ll usually take a stud ace with a proven record in the first 4-5 rounds. Brandon Webb and Eric Bedard are the kind of guy you can get in the fourth or fifth round and while they aren’t as hyped as CC Sabathia, Josh Beckett or Johan Santana, you can usually get them a round or two later and use those earlier picks on studs at positions with less depth. I like to fill my lineup before I take my fourth pitcher. I’ll try to get two high-value starting pitchers and a solid, if lesser name, closer. You should have three or four guys from the list below filling out the front of your rotation:

Name, Team	Remarks (# games)
Johan Santana, NYM	+W, !K, +ERA, !WHIP
Jake Peavy, SD	+PARK, !W, !K, !ERA, !WHIP
Brandon Webb, ARI	!W, +K, !ERA, +WHIP
Josh Beckett, BOS	!W, +K, +ERA, +WHIP
Erik Bedard, SEA	!K, +ERA, !WHIP
CC Sabathia, CLE	!W, +K, +ERA, +WHIP
Cole Hamels, PHI	-PARK, +W, +K, +ERA, +WHIP
Dan Haren, ARI	+W, +K, !ERA
Aaron Harang, CIN	-PARK, +W, !K, +WHIP
John Lackey, LAA	!W, +K, !ERA
Justin Verlander, DET	!W, +K
John Smoltz, ATL	+K, +ERA, +WHIP
Scott Kazmir, TB	!K
Roy Oswalt, HOU	+ERA,
Carlos Zambrano, CHC	+W, +K,
Felix Hernandez, SEA
Javier Vazquez, CWS	+W, !K, +WHIP
Chris Young, SD	+PARK, +ERA, !WHIP (17)
Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS	+W, +K
Roy Halladay, TOR	+W
Fausto Carmona, CLE	!W, !ERA,
Yovani Gallardo, MIL	-K (14)
Kelvim Escobar, LAA	!W, +ERA
AJ Burnett, TOR	MED, +K, +WHIP
Tim Lincecum, SF	+PARK, -W, (12)
Rich Hill, CHC	+K, +WHIP
Brett Myers, PHI	-PARK, -W, -K (12)
James Shields, TB	+K, +WHIP
Pedro Martinez, NYM	MED, -W, -K, !ERA (4)
John Maine, NYM	+W, +K
Matt Cain, SF	+PARK, -W
Ben Sheets, MIL	-K
Brad Penny, LAD	+W, !ERA
Chad Billingsley, LAD	+ERA
Ted Lilly, CHC	+W, +K, +WHIP
Tim Hudson, ATL	+W,
Chien-Ming Wang, NYY	!W, -K
Jeff Francis, COL	-PARK, !W
Adam Wainwright, StL
Jered Weaver, LAA
Dustin McGowan, TOR
Francisco Liriano, MIN	MED, +PARK, No Stats in 2007
Ian Snell, PIT	+K
Jeremy Bonderman, DET	-ERA
Derek Lowe, LAD
Phil Hughes, NYY	-W, -K, (8)
Clay Buchholz, BOS	-W, -K, !ERA, !WHIP (4)

The rest of your rotation should primarily come from this list, but realize that even in Fantasy, back of the rotation guys are a crapshoot, so don’t reach.

Oliver Perez, NYM

Jon Garland, LAA

Carlos Villanueva, MIL

Kenny Rogers, DET

Mike Mussina, NYY

Ervin Santana, LAA

Dontrelle Willis, FLA

Chris Capuano, MIL

Andy Pettitte, NYY

Rich Harden, OAK

Bronson Arroyon, CIN

Barry Zito, SF

Randy Johnson, ARI

Freddy Garcia, PHI

Dave Bush, MIL

Josh Johnson, FLA

Chuck James, ATL

Jose Contreras, CHW

Nate Robertson, DET

Greg Maddux, SD

Jason Schmidt, LAD

Anibal Sanchez, FLA

Scott Olsen, FLA

Kevin Millwood, TEX

John Patterson, WAS

Jeff Suppan, MIL

Daniel Cabrera, BAL

Joe Blanton, OAK

Jason Jennings, HOU

Jake Westbrook, CLE

Cliff Lee, CLE

Zach Duke, PIT

Homer Bailey, CIN

Jon Lester, BOS

Tim Wakefield, BOS

Matt Garza, TB

Gil Meche, KC

As for closers, if you’re going to punt any statistical category in your draft, punt saves. You can always find closers on the waiver wire during the season and unless you have a stud, they’ll do just as well as a draft pick in the late teen rounds. Here are the studs:

Name, Team	Remarks
Jonathan Papelbon, BOS	+SV, +K, +ERA, !WHIP
JJ Putz, SEA	!SV, +K, !ERA, !WHIP
Joe Nathan, MIN	+PARK, +SV, +ERA, !WHIP
Francisco Rodrigues, LAA	!SV, +K
Takashi Saito, LAD	+SV, !ERA, !WHIP
Billy Wagner, NYM	+K, +WHIP
Mariano Rivera, NYY	-ERA, +WHIP
Bobby Jenks, CWS	!SV, -K, !WHIP
Francisco Cordero, CIN	-PARK, !SV, +K, +WHIP
Jose Valverde, HOU	!SV, +WHIP
Huston Street, OAK	!WHIP
Brad Lidge, PHI	-PARK, +K, -ERA
Matt Capps, PIT	!WHIP
Trevor Hoffman, SD	-PARK, !SV, -K, +WHIP
Manny Corpas, COL	-PARK, -K, +ERA, !WHIP
Joakim Soria, KC	!WHIP
Rafael Soriano, ATL	-SV, -ERA, !WHIP
Jason Isringhausen, StL	-K, !WHIP
Chad Cordero, WAS	+SV, -ERA,
Brett Myers, PHI	-PARK, +K, -ERA
Carlos Marmol, ChC	-SV, !K, !ERA, !WHIP
Kevin Gregg, FLA	+K, -ERA
Joe Borowski, CLE	!SV, -K, -ERA,
Eric Gagne, MIL	-K, -ERA, !WHIP
Chad Billingsley, LAD	-SV, +K, -ERA
Todd Jones, DET	+SV, -K, -ERA

In the keys below, some notes:

+/- PARK means different things to different folks. In the pitcher lists, +PARK is one of the top 3 pitchers parks For position players, +PARK is one of the top 3 hitters parks. Anyone with a ! can carry your team for a week or two in that category. –BA should be seen as the kiss of death. These guys are not starters for a contending fantasy team. You’re better off taking a flier on a rookie than drafting one of these siphons. Also note the difference between keys when dealing with Starters versus Relievers.

KEY	Numbers based on last years stats
MED	History of medical issues or coming off injury
+PARK	Park is a serious advantage (top 3)
-PARK	Park is a serious disadvantage (bottom 3)

For SP, the Key will be:

- + !

W <8 >15 >17

SV NA

K <110 >170 >210

ERA >4.60 <3.40 <3.10

WHIP >1.50 <1.20 <1.10

For RP, the Key will be:

- + !

W NA

SV <10 >35 >40

K <60 >80 >95

ERA >3.00 <2.15 <1.50

WHIP >1.50 <1.20 <1.10

Fantasy Outfield Rankings:

Fantasy Outfield Rankings:

Time for my annual fantasy rankings. I’ll be posting one position per day as well as giving draft advice. My method is proven, having won my head to head fantasy league 3 straight years before teaching my fiancé how to play last season only to have her use my rankings against me and take the Championship. This year I’ll look to rebound from last year’s disappointing 2^nd place finish.

Matt Holiday is the only legit first rounder from the outfield ranks. The position is still deep, so you should be able to fill all three OF positions between the third and eighth round without reaching. There’s a lot of speed and power available here if you miss out on guys like Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes or Ryan Howard and David Ortiz.

Name, Team	Remarks (# games)	Other
Matt Holiday, COL	+PARK, !BA, +HR, !RBI, !R
Carl Crawford, TB	!SB, +BA,
Alfonso Soriano, ChC	+SB, +HR
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA	!SB, !BA, !R
Grady Sizemore, CLE	+SB, !R
Carlos Beltran, NYM	+SB, +RBI
Vlad Guerrero, LAA	MED, !RBI
Carlos Lee, HOU	+R
Chone Figgins, LAA	!BS, !BA, -HR,	2B, 3B
Curtis Granderson, DET	+BS, !R
Magglio Ordonez, DET	!BA, !RBI, !R
Alex Rios, TOR	+BS, !R
Bobby Abreu, NYY	+SB, +RBI, !R
BJ Upton, TB		2B
Lance Berkman, HOU		1B
Nick Markakis, BAL	+BS, +RBI
Eric Byrnes, ARI	!SB, +R
Torii Hunter, LAA	+SB, +RBI
Manny Ramierez, BOS
Hunter Pence, HOU
Chris Young, ARI
Adam Dunn, CIN	+PARK, !HR, +RBI, +R
Corey Hart, MIL	+SB
Vernon Wells, TOR	-BA
Delmon Young, MIN
Gary Sheffield, DET	+BS, +R
Brad Hawpe, COL
Shane Victorino, PHI
Hideki Matsui, NYY	+RBI, +R
Jason Bay, PIT	-BA
Matt Kemp, LAD
Jermaine Dye, CWS
Jeff Francoeur, ATL	+R
Johnny Damon, NYY	+SB
Juan Pierre, LAD	!SB, -HR, -RBI
Andrew Jones, LAD
Willy Taveras, COL	+PARK, +BS, +BA, -HR, -RBI (97)
Aaron Rowand, SF	-PARK, +BA, +R
Raul Ibanez, SEA	+RBI
Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS
Nick Swisher, CWS		1B
Pat Burrell, PHI	+PARK, +HR
Ken Griffey Jr, CIN	+PARK, +HR
Kosuke Fukudome, ChC
Michael Cuddyer, MIN
Josh Fields, CWS
Ryan Church, NYM
Ryan Freel, CIN	+PARK, +BS, -BA, -HR, RBI, -R (75)
Matt Diaz, ATL
Ryan Doumit, PIT

Other guys worth keeping an eye on:

JD Drew, BOS

Austin Kearns, WAS

Coco Crisp, BOS

Mark Kotsay, OAK

Corey Patterson, BAL

Mike Cameron, SD

Gary Matthews, Jr. LAA

Reed Johnson, TOR

Dave Roberts, SF

Josh Willingham, FLA

Juan Rivera, LAA

Moises Alou, NYM

Brain Giles, SD

Milton Bradley, OAK

Jim Edmonds, STL

Jeremy Hermida, FLA

Xavier Nady, PIT

Carlos Quentin, ARI

Jacque Jones, DET

Luis Gonzales, LAD

Chris Duncan, STL

Garret Anderson, LAA

Casey Blake, CLE

Kenny Lofton, FA

Juan Encarnacion, STL

Geoff Jenkins, MIL

David DeJesus, KC

Willy Mo Pena, WAS

Randy Winn, SF

In the key below, some notes:
+/- PARK means different things to different folks. In the pitcher lists, +PARK is one of the top 3 pitchers parks For position players, +PARK is one of the top 3 hitters parks. Anyone with a ! can carry your team for a week or two in that category. –BA should be seen as the kiss of death. These guys are not starters for a contending fantasy team. You’re better off taking a flier on a rookie than drafting one of these siphons.

KEY	Numbers based on last years stats
MED	History of medical issues or coming off injury
+PARK	Park is a serious advantage (top 3)
-PARK	Park is a serious disadvantage (bottom 3)
!HR	>37 HR
+HR	>30 HR
-HR	<10>
!RBI	>120 RBI
+RBI	>100 RBI
-RBI	<50>
!BA	>.330
+BA	>.305
-BA	<.250
!R	>110 R
+R	>100 R
-R	<55>
!SB	>35 SB
+SB	>15 SB