Week 17 NFL Picks Against the Spread (HOME teams in caps)
Bills (+7.5) over EAGLES:
McNabb wins his last appearance in an Eagles uniform…but not by that much. But will the Philly fans boo McNabb in his final moments in the city of brotherly love?
BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Panthers:
Because I have no faith in the Panthers quarterback.
Steelers (-3.5) over RAVENS:
Because I have lots of faith in the Steelers quarterback.
Bengals (-2.5) over DOLPHINS:
Because I have no faith in either quarterback.
BROWNS (-10.5) over 49ers:
This game only matters if Tennessee ties.
PACKERS (-3.5) over Lions:
This game would be at least a 10 point spread if the Packers hadn’t turned in such a stinker last week. If this were the stock market, this’d be a growth investment. Buy low and watch Green Bay soar.
Jaguars (+6) over TEXANS:
The Jags are easily ten points better than Houston. The fact that they will probably rest key players doesn’t sway that by 16 points.
Saints (-2) over BEARS:
See Packers over Lions and reverse the theory.
Cowboys (+9) over REDSKINS:
The Cowboys have nothing to play for, will be sans T.O. and will want to rest Romo’s thumb. The Redskins are ‘win and in.’ They’ll win, but not by double digits.
BRONCOS (+3) over Vikings:
Too much scoreboard watching by the Vikes. The Broncos are going to sneak up on them. The Broncos catch an early lead and hold on against a team that can’t pass to save its (playoff) life.
Seahawks (+1) over FALCONS:
How are the Falcons favored against a playoff team!?
Chargers (-8) over RAIDERS:
I thought taking JaMarcus Russell was a mistake back in April. Starting Sunday he begins the 3 year process of proving me right. Also, Phil Rivers needs to shut-the-hell-up. You’re not good. Don’t start snapping at the other team when you’re winning, only to rely totally on the superstars on your team come the next game. Who would’ve thought that the additional pick sent to San Diego along with Rivers for Eli Manning would end up being the best player of the three by miles. That would be Shawne Merriman.
CARDINALS (-6) over Rams:
In a game that means nothing, take the team that hasn’t been awful all year.
JETS (-6) over Chiefs:
Is this game on TV anywhere? Aren’t there any junior high school field hockey they could be broadcasting?
COLTS (+6.5) over Titans:
I think the Titans will win. But since I’m sitting at 0-15 picking Titans games this year, I’m going against my gut. The fact that the Colts are a touchdown underdogs at home make it a little easier.
GIANTS (+14) over Patriots:
For some reason, the Pats chose not to disembowel the Dolphins last week. I don’t understand it, but I wouldn’t take a chance on them to cover double digit spreads until this has been answered.
Last Week: 6-8-1 ATS Every week that goes by is simply another 14-16 games in which you could be making money by betting I’m wrong.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Sunday, December 23, 2007
Pyrrhic Victories and 'Roids
The Cowboys and Steelers won the battles this week, but with the losses of "T.O." and "Fast" Willie Parker, they may have lost the war. I think the loss of Parker is the more serious, not only because he has no chance of coming back whereas T.O. could be back for the NFC Championship or the Super Bowl but also because in the Junior Varsity Conference, the Cowboys probably won't need him until they run into Green Bay.
In other news, to all those who have stated that Barry Bonds was being singled out in the steroid investigation because of his race, I present to you: Roger Clemens. Has anyone even heard Bonds' name uttered this week? No, because its not about white or black or red or blue when it comes to how much we care about whether an athlete cheated or not. What matters is that player's level of stardom. Palmiero, Pettite, Gagne, Roberts, and even Sosa and McGwire are big names, but Clemens and Bonds are in their own stratosphere. Were upset when very good players, even borderline Hall of Famers cheated, but when the greatest pitcher and greatest hitter of this generation were found to have cheated, it called into question many of our favorite memories and some of the biggest records in all of sports. When guys like Palmiero, Pettite, Sosa and McGwire cheat, it allows mediocre players to be star players, or enables an aging player to collect a few extra game checks. When someone of Bonds or Clemens talent cheats, it allows them to break records, forever altering the way our heroes of the past are remembered. In 5 or 10 years when I'm teaching my son about baseball, I can't tell him that Barry Bonds is the greatest slugger of all time. I can't tell him that Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher I've ever seen take the mound. I have to tell him those things and then I have to explain the steroids era. In essence, Steroids have complicated something that should be simple. We like our sports simple. Our team is the good guys, your team is the bad guys. Simple. This guy hit more home runs than anyone else ever. Simple. But when you have to explain asterisks because of cheating, it stops being simple. I don't know that MLB can salvage the situation other than by adopting a zero tolerance policy towards Performance Enhancing Drugs. First offense: Lifetime Ban. Strike all records set by anyone on PED from the books. I don't think this will happen of course, so we can only hope that over the next few years someone from the C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana class emerges to become a CLEAN, dominant, 300 game winning pitcher that we thought Clemens was; and that...gulp... A-Rod CLEANLY breaks the home run record. I just threw up in my mouth typing that. Sadly though, both of these things need to happen for baseball to become simple again. I miss simple sports.
In other news, to all those who have stated that Barry Bonds was being singled out in the steroid investigation because of his race, I present to you: Roger Clemens. Has anyone even heard Bonds' name uttered this week? No, because its not about white or black or red or blue when it comes to how much we care about whether an athlete cheated or not. What matters is that player's level of stardom. Palmiero, Pettite, Gagne, Roberts, and even Sosa and McGwire are big names, but Clemens and Bonds are in their own stratosphere. Were upset when very good players, even borderline Hall of Famers cheated, but when the greatest pitcher and greatest hitter of this generation were found to have cheated, it called into question many of our favorite memories and some of the biggest records in all of sports. When guys like Palmiero, Pettite, Sosa and McGwire cheat, it allows mediocre players to be star players, or enables an aging player to collect a few extra game checks. When someone of Bonds or Clemens talent cheats, it allows them to break records, forever altering the way our heroes of the past are remembered. In 5 or 10 years when I'm teaching my son about baseball, I can't tell him that Barry Bonds is the greatest slugger of all time. I can't tell him that Roger Clemens is the greatest pitcher I've ever seen take the mound. I have to tell him those things and then I have to explain the steroids era. In essence, Steroids have complicated something that should be simple. We like our sports simple. Our team is the good guys, your team is the bad guys. Simple. This guy hit more home runs than anyone else ever. Simple. But when you have to explain asterisks because of cheating, it stops being simple. I don't know that MLB can salvage the situation other than by adopting a zero tolerance policy towards Performance Enhancing Drugs. First offense: Lifetime Ban. Strike all records set by anyone on PED from the books. I don't think this will happen of course, so we can only hope that over the next few years someone from the C.C. Sabathia, Josh Beckett, Johan Santana class emerges to become a CLEAN, dominant, 300 game winning pitcher that we thought Clemens was; and that...gulp... A-Rod CLEANLY breaks the home run record. I just threw up in my mouth typing that. Sadly though, both of these things need to happen for baseball to become simple again. I miss simple sports.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Week 16 NFL Picks
Week 16 NFL Picks Against the Spread (HOME teams in caps)
PANTHERS (+10.5) over Cowboys:
Romo’s injured thumb gave him all kinds of trouble last week against the Eagles. You don’t see too many one dimensional teams dole out 11 point whippings.
Packers (-8.5) over BEARS:
I know this is a ‘throw out the records’ type of game. Ok, I’ll ignore the records and take the Packers because they have an immeasurably better quarterback, an improving running game, and a secondary which will allow them to put 8 in the box while playing Man on the outside. As long as the Packers don’t kick to Hester, this is a double digit win for Green Bay.
Browns (-3) over BENGALS:
Looking at the records, you’d think this is a no-brainer, right? Well let’s see. The Browns are only 3-4 on the road. Of course the Bengals are only 4-3 at home, and they’re coming off a loss to one of the two or three worst teams in the NFL in the 49ers. Alright, so it is a no-brainer after all. Though it ought to be exciting to watch if these two teams can put up the kind of numbers they did in their first meeting.
Dolphins (+22) over PATRIOTS:
I refuse to justify this game with a breakdown. Suffice it to say that the Fins should have to play LSU just to earn the privilege of being in the same state as the Patriots.
COLTS (-7) over Texans:
I know the Colts like to rest their players at the end of the season, but the Texans just aren’t any good, and the lack of big play ability from their running back corps makes them pretty one dimensional on offense forcing them to rely far too heavily on… checking my notes…Sage Rosenfels. Ugh. I’d take the Colts by 27 at home here.
Chiefs (+5) over LIONS:
I’d rather make naked snow angels face down in a box of broken glass than watch this game.
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Redskins:
Will Tavaris Jackson be the worst ever to play in the playoffs? If you can think of anyone worse, I beg you to let me know.
SAINTS (-3) over Eagles:
T-minus 8 days til the NFL hot stove league begins with the biggest question (Non Darren McFadden class) will be where will Donovan McNabb be playing next season.
BILLS (+3) over Giants:
The Giants will lose for three reasons.
Eli Manning is their Quarterback…
On the road in inclimate weather…
With Kevin Everett miraculously watching the game from the Bills sideline.
JAGUARS (-13) over Raiders:
What’s there to say about this game? The Jags are the 5th best team in the NFL, and the Raiders are …the Raiders.
Jets (+8.5) over TITANS:
Down to my last two chances to correctly pick a Titans game this year.
Bucaneers (-6) over 49ERS:
Breaking news: The 49ers are bad. Really really bad…
CARDINALS (-10) over Falcons:
And so are the Falcons.
Ravens (+10.5) over SEAHAWKS:
Just kidding.
SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Ravens:
The Ravens score less than the Raiders AND allow more points. Scary.
CHARGERS (-8.5) over Broncos:
The only team in the AFC that has allowed more points than the Broncos is the Dolphins…by 4 points. The Broncos are 2-5 on the road. Then again…Norv Turner…
Broncos (+8.5) over CHARGERS:
Norv Turner.
Last Week: 4-10 ATS Ugh.
PANTHERS (+10.5) over Cowboys:
Romo’s injured thumb gave him all kinds of trouble last week against the Eagles. You don’t see too many one dimensional teams dole out 11 point whippings.
Packers (-8.5) over BEARS:
I know this is a ‘throw out the records’ type of game. Ok, I’ll ignore the records and take the Packers because they have an immeasurably better quarterback, an improving running game, and a secondary which will allow them to put 8 in the box while playing Man on the outside. As long as the Packers don’t kick to Hester, this is a double digit win for Green Bay.
Browns (-3) over BENGALS:
Looking at the records, you’d think this is a no-brainer, right? Well let’s see. The Browns are only 3-4 on the road. Of course the Bengals are only 4-3 at home, and they’re coming off a loss to one of the two or three worst teams in the NFL in the 49ers. Alright, so it is a no-brainer after all. Though it ought to be exciting to watch if these two teams can put up the kind of numbers they did in their first meeting.
Dolphins (+22) over PATRIOTS:
I refuse to justify this game with a breakdown. Suffice it to say that the Fins should have to play LSU just to earn the privilege of being in the same state as the Patriots.
COLTS (-7) over Texans:
I know the Colts like to rest their players at the end of the season, but the Texans just aren’t any good, and the lack of big play ability from their running back corps makes them pretty one dimensional on offense forcing them to rely far too heavily on… checking my notes…Sage Rosenfels. Ugh. I’d take the Colts by 27 at home here.
Chiefs (+5) over LIONS:
I’d rather make naked snow angels face down in a box of broken glass than watch this game.
VIKINGS (-6.5) over Redskins:
Will Tavaris Jackson be the worst ever to play in the playoffs? If you can think of anyone worse, I beg you to let me know.
SAINTS (-3) over Eagles:
T-minus 8 days til the NFL hot stove league begins with the biggest question (Non Darren McFadden class) will be where will Donovan McNabb be playing next season.
BILLS (+3) over Giants:
The Giants will lose for three reasons.
Eli Manning is their Quarterback…
On the road in inclimate weather…
With Kevin Everett miraculously watching the game from the Bills sideline.
JAGUARS (-13) over Raiders:
What’s there to say about this game? The Jags are the 5th best team in the NFL, and the Raiders are …the Raiders.
Jets (+8.5) over TITANS:
Down to my last two chances to correctly pick a Titans game this year.
Bucaneers (-6) over 49ERS:
Breaking news: The 49ers are bad. Really really bad…
CARDINALS (-10) over Falcons:
And so are the Falcons.
Ravens (+10.5) over SEAHAWKS:
Just kidding.
SEAHAWKS (-10.5) over Ravens:
The Ravens score less than the Raiders AND allow more points. Scary.
CHARGERS (-8.5) over Broncos:
The only team in the AFC that has allowed more points than the Broncos is the Dolphins…by 4 points. The Broncos are 2-5 on the road. Then again…Norv Turner…
Broncos (+8.5) over CHARGERS:
Norv Turner.
Last Week: 4-10 ATS Ugh.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Monday Morning Recap
Just a few thoughts from the last week:
NFL:
-Do you realize the Ravens were 44 seconds away from being the only team to beat the Patriots AND the only team to lose to the Dolphins?
-What a game in Pittsburgh. I can wait to watch it again in 3 weeks.
-Congratulations to Brett Favre on both passing Dan Marino for the career passing yards record and locking up a first round Bye.
-It's time to blow up the Bengals. How do you lose to the 49ers and their 3rd string QB? On a related note, this effectively ends my dream of Darren McFadden lining up with Maroney in a two back set for the Patriots next year. Admit it, you were terrified of this.
-Dear Falcons,
Please turn in your man cards.
Sincerely,
The Y Chromosome
-What happened to Dallas? It must be the Curse of the Quarterback's Hot Girlfriend.
-Memo to Detroit Lions Employees:
Please turn in your uniforms and all items bearing the team logo or colors Monday. We will be re-issuing these items in the new team colors: pink and powder blue. Also, please note that the new team name and helmet logo will be "Kitties."
V/r
Matt Millen
-Do the Giants scare anyone in the playoffs? Especially without Shockey?
-Did anyone have a worse day yesterday than Matt Stover.
-I apologize to all the gambling addicts out there for grossly under-estimating the number of ice balls the Patriots fans would throw at the Jets.
NCAA Football:
-Lloyd Carr's winning percentage at Michigan: 75.0%
-Rich Rodriguez's winning percentage at WVU: 69.8%
-How is this an upgrade? Especially considering Rodriguez's penchant for LOSING THE BIG GAME!? Exactly the problem for which Carr was forced to retire.
-Yes, Rodriguez's spread option offense should be successful in the Big Ten, but Defense has been Michigan's Achilles heel in recent years. How will Rodriguez have an affect on that?
-What does Ryan Mallet do? The big freshman fits in with Rodriguez's new offense like Chris Farley in a M. Night Shyamalan movie.
MLB:
-The D-Backs have to be the early favorite in the NL with the addition of Dan Haren. They still need another bat though.
-Don't forget, Arizona still has Randy Johnson; albeit coming off back surgery. If he can pitch himself into shape by September, the D-Backs could have a front 3 to rival the Indians and Red Sox come the playoffs...unless the Sox get Santana and become the baseball version of the Patriots.
-So Pettite took HGH for two days huh? Anyone really buy that? Will he receive a 50 game suspension? And if so, are the Yankees done before the season even starts if they don't get Santana?
-Clemens has to be done now right? Will they even cheer him in the Bronx after his 'roided up, $3M/win performance last year?
NFL:
-Do you realize the Ravens were 44 seconds away from being the only team to beat the Patriots AND the only team to lose to the Dolphins?
-What a game in Pittsburgh. I can wait to watch it again in 3 weeks.
-Congratulations to Brett Favre on both passing Dan Marino for the career passing yards record and locking up a first round Bye.
-It's time to blow up the Bengals. How do you lose to the 49ers and their 3rd string QB? On a related note, this effectively ends my dream of Darren McFadden lining up with Maroney in a two back set for the Patriots next year. Admit it, you were terrified of this.
-Dear Falcons,
Please turn in your man cards.
Sincerely,
The Y Chromosome
-What happened to Dallas? It must be the Curse of the Quarterback's Hot Girlfriend.
-Memo to Detroit Lions Employees:
Please turn in your uniforms and all items bearing the team logo or colors Monday. We will be re-issuing these items in the new team colors: pink and powder blue. Also, please note that the new team name and helmet logo will be "Kitties."
V/r
Matt Millen
-Do the Giants scare anyone in the playoffs? Especially without Shockey?
-Did anyone have a worse day yesterday than Matt Stover.
-I apologize to all the gambling addicts out there for grossly under-estimating the number of ice balls the Patriots fans would throw at the Jets.
NCAA Football:
-Lloyd Carr's winning percentage at Michigan: 75.0%
-Rich Rodriguez's winning percentage at WVU: 69.8%
-How is this an upgrade? Especially considering Rodriguez's penchant for LOSING THE BIG GAME!? Exactly the problem for which Carr was forced to retire.
-Yes, Rodriguez's spread option offense should be successful in the Big Ten, but Defense has been Michigan's Achilles heel in recent years. How will Rodriguez have an affect on that?
-What does Ryan Mallet do? The big freshman fits in with Rodriguez's new offense like Chris Farley in a M. Night Shyamalan movie.
MLB:
-The D-Backs have to be the early favorite in the NL with the addition of Dan Haren. They still need another bat though.
-Don't forget, Arizona still has Randy Johnson; albeit coming off back surgery. If he can pitch himself into shape by September, the D-Backs could have a front 3 to rival the Indians and Red Sox come the playoffs...unless the Sox get Santana and become the baseball version of the Patriots.
-So Pettite took HGH for two days huh? Anyone really buy that? Will he receive a 50 game suspension? And if so, are the Yankees done before the season even starts if they don't get Santana?
-Clemens has to be done now right? Will they even cheer him in the Bronx after his 'roided up, $3M/win performance last year?
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Week 15 NFL Picks
Week 15 NFL Picks Against the Spread (HOME team in caps)
Bengals (-8) over 49ERS:
Two underachieving teams led by two young quarterbacks who’ve taken a step back this year and by coaches on the hot seat. Normally I’d think this is would be a great game between two teams desperate to survive…except that the Bengals are one of the most dysfunctional teams in pro sports, and the 49ers quit playing weeks ago. I’ll take dysfunctional talent over disinterested nobodys.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Cardinals:
The loser of this game is done. The Saints are down to their 3rd string running back. Arizona is beat up at almost every position. All that said; these have been the two most erratic teams in the NFL this year. This one is a coin flip, and if you’re betting on this game, get help.
Falcons (+12) over BUCCANEERS:
No-Brainer of the Week. The Falcons anger at Bobby Petrino’s cowardly departure spurs them to their best performance of the year. Besides do you really trust Jeff Garcia to cover a 12 point spread?
DOLPHINS (+3) over Ravens:
The Dolphins aren’t just going to cover, they are going to WIN! Because if they don’t…
Bills (+5.5) over BROWNS:
This is the play in game for the AFC playoffs. I can’t wait for this game. It should be the most exciting of the week. It should be a bit of a shoot-out with the 30th and 32nd ranked Defenses squaring off. The team with the ball last should win. That’ll be the Browns but only by a field goal.
Packers (-7.5) over Rams:
Brett Favre versus Brock Berlin. ‘Nuff said.
STEELERS (-3.5) over Jaguars:
This one is tough because it really doesn’t mean much. The Steelers loss last week all but relegates them to the 3rd or 4th seed, and the Jags have pretty much locked up the 5 position. These teams could see each other again in round one, so I expect very vanilla game plans from both teams.
PATRIOTS (+22.5) over Jets:
The forecast is getting better by the hour as it appears the Nor’easter isn’t going to be quite as bad as we were initially led to believe. Besides, this isn’t Pittsburgh. The Pats installed artificial turf a couple years back so footing won’t be nearly the issue it was a couple Mondays back. It you don’t think the Jets are praying for the heavens to open up and dump a couple of feet of snow in front of the Patriots receivers you’re kidding yourself. A couple side bets to consider: I’m setting the over/under for numbers for slush balls thrown at Jets players and coaches at 500, and number of punches thrown by Belichick and Mangini in lieu of a hand shake is set at 4.5.
Seahawks (-7) over PANTHERS:
The Panthers really had a chance to trap the Jags last week. Instead they got blown apart. The Panthers are done. I wouldn’t expect anything out of them the rest of the way.
CHIEFS (+4) over Titans:
It took an act of God for me to maintain my streak of picking the wrong way in all Tennessee games this year. I’ll take the chiefs in December at Arrowhead, so RUN to put your money on the Titans.
Colts (-10.5) over RAIDERS:
You don’t need me to tell you what’s going to happen in this game.
CHARGERS (-9.5) over Lions:
This collapse by the Detroit has been amazing. Last week has to be the last straw. I’d be surprised if the Lions even make the flight to San Diego.
COWBOYS (-9.5) over Eagles:
Kevin Kolb starts next week. You heard it here first.
GIANTS (-4) over Redskins:
I hate Eli Manning. I really do. How many fantasy seasons has he ruined? Why are these Giants spreads always so tempting? This game makes me want to hurt myself.
Last Week: 7-9 ATS After a rare winning week, right back to my losing ways.
Bengals (-8) over 49ERS:
Two underachieving teams led by two young quarterbacks who’ve taken a step back this year and by coaches on the hot seat. Normally I’d think this is would be a great game between two teams desperate to survive…except that the Bengals are one of the most dysfunctional teams in pro sports, and the 49ers quit playing weeks ago. I’ll take dysfunctional talent over disinterested nobodys.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Cardinals:
The loser of this game is done. The Saints are down to their 3rd string running back. Arizona is beat up at almost every position. All that said; these have been the two most erratic teams in the NFL this year. This one is a coin flip, and if you’re betting on this game, get help.
Falcons (+12) over BUCCANEERS:
No-Brainer of the Week. The Falcons anger at Bobby Petrino’s cowardly departure spurs them to their best performance of the year. Besides do you really trust Jeff Garcia to cover a 12 point spread?
DOLPHINS (+3) over Ravens:
The Dolphins aren’t just going to cover, they are going to WIN! Because if they don’t…
Bills (+5.5) over BROWNS:
This is the play in game for the AFC playoffs. I can’t wait for this game. It should be the most exciting of the week. It should be a bit of a shoot-out with the 30th and 32nd ranked Defenses squaring off. The team with the ball last should win. That’ll be the Browns but only by a field goal.
Packers (-7.5) over Rams:
Brett Favre versus Brock Berlin. ‘Nuff said.
STEELERS (-3.5) over Jaguars:
This one is tough because it really doesn’t mean much. The Steelers loss last week all but relegates them to the 3rd or 4th seed, and the Jags have pretty much locked up the 5 position. These teams could see each other again in round one, so I expect very vanilla game plans from both teams.
PATRIOTS (+22.5) over Jets:
The forecast is getting better by the hour as it appears the Nor’easter isn’t going to be quite as bad as we were initially led to believe. Besides, this isn’t Pittsburgh. The Pats installed artificial turf a couple years back so footing won’t be nearly the issue it was a couple Mondays back. It you don’t think the Jets are praying for the heavens to open up and dump a couple of feet of snow in front of the Patriots receivers you’re kidding yourself. A couple side bets to consider: I’m setting the over/under for numbers for slush balls thrown at Jets players and coaches at 500, and number of punches thrown by Belichick and Mangini in lieu of a hand shake is set at 4.5.
Seahawks (-7) over PANTHERS:
The Panthers really had a chance to trap the Jags last week. Instead they got blown apart. The Panthers are done. I wouldn’t expect anything out of them the rest of the way.
CHIEFS (+4) over Titans:
It took an act of God for me to maintain my streak of picking the wrong way in all Tennessee games this year. I’ll take the chiefs in December at Arrowhead, so RUN to put your money on the Titans.
Colts (-10.5) over RAIDERS:
You don’t need me to tell you what’s going to happen in this game.
CHARGERS (-9.5) over Lions:
This collapse by the Detroit has been amazing. Last week has to be the last straw. I’d be surprised if the Lions even make the flight to San Diego.
COWBOYS (-9.5) over Eagles:
Kevin Kolb starts next week. You heard it here first.
GIANTS (-4) over Redskins:
I hate Eli Manning. I really do. How many fantasy seasons has he ruined? Why are these Giants spreads always so tempting? This game makes me want to hurt myself.
Last Week: 7-9 ATS After a rare winning week, right back to my losing ways.
Sunday, December 9, 2007
Mayweather Hatton Recap
Just a few thoughts from the most exciting fight in a long time...
-Did anyone catch Larry Merchant say that he wasn't paying attention to the Peter Manfredo v. Jeff Lacy fight? I'm waiting for John Madden to make a similar admission in the near future.
-Did anyone know that Tom Jones is British?
-Just when I was ready to cheer for Hatton the underdog, the British fans, sounding like the student section at a Duke v. UNC game, started booing the National Anthem and Mayweather came out to Born in the USA. What can I say, I'm a sucker for patriotism. But on a related note, when Tyrese heard the booing, didn't he look like he was about to pull on a maroon beret and call down an airstrike on the offending Brits?
-Was Mayweather wearing felt shorts? WTF!?
-Hatton's cut-man is a London taxi driver...Awesome!
-The first 8 rounds looked like Rocky, and the last two rounds looked like Rocky III.
On a totally unrelated topic, Eric Gagne signed a 1 year deal for $10M with the Brewers. On behalf of all of New England, I'd like to say: Sorry Brewers fans, but thanks for the sandwich pick.
-Did anyone catch Larry Merchant say that he wasn't paying attention to the Peter Manfredo v. Jeff Lacy fight? I'm waiting for John Madden to make a similar admission in the near future.
-Did anyone know that Tom Jones is British?
-Just when I was ready to cheer for Hatton the underdog, the British fans, sounding like the student section at a Duke v. UNC game, started booing the National Anthem and Mayweather came out to Born in the USA. What can I say, I'm a sucker for patriotism. But on a related note, when Tyrese heard the booing, didn't he look like he was about to pull on a maroon beret and call down an airstrike on the offending Brits?
-Was Mayweather wearing felt shorts? WTF!?
-Hatton's cut-man is a London taxi driver...Awesome!
-The first 8 rounds looked like Rocky, and the last two rounds looked like Rocky III.
On a totally unrelated topic, Eric Gagne signed a 1 year deal for $10M with the Brewers. On behalf of all of New England, I'd like to say: Sorry Brewers fans, but thanks for the sandwich pick.
Saturday, December 8, 2007
Week 14 NFL Picks B
Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread B (HOME teams in caps)
Cowboys (-10.5) over LIONS:
The free-fall continues for Kitna and the Fighting Simbas. After getting dismantled last week by the best running back tandem in the league, this week they get the second best pair supported by an excellent passing attack and a stout defense. It looks like a blow-out which the way my predictions have gone this year means the Lions will win this one. Oh well, live by the sword… I’ll take the ‘Boys on the road by a ton.
BILLS (-7) over Dolphins:
Is there anything left to say about the Dolphins at this point? How about this: John Beck has thrown for 418 yards in his 3 starts for Miami…combined… with zero touchdowns and 3 INTs. In fact, the Dolphins have not scored an offensive touchdown passing or rushing with Beck at the helm. Matt Ryan to Miami #1 overall in April?
Giants (+2.5) over EAGLES:
I’ve gotten to the point where I need to wash my hands after picking the Giants to win games. Betting on Eli just makes me feel dirty. But the spreads are just so enticing week after week… I bet this is how crack feels.
Panthers (+10.5) over JAGUARS:
This game screams TRAP!!! A tough loss last week to Indy effectively knocks them to Wild Card status, and with the Steelers looming next week, the Jags are ripe for the picking. Too bad they’re playing the Ageless Wonder Vinny T and the toothless Panthers. I really can’t think of any reason to pick the Panthers other than I just can’t pick the Jags this week.
TITANS (PK) over Chargers:
I have made the wrong pick in every Titans game this year. No kidding. So this week I decided to get scientific about the process. I flipped a coin…and it bounced so that it was leaning against the wall. I can’t make this stuff up. The second time I flipped it, it came up heads, which I predetermined to be the Titans. My advise to you is to pick the Chargers.
BENGALS (-7) over Rams:
I was all set to pick the Rams in this one. Then I heard that Marc Bulger will be out meaning Brock Berlin (aka the guy who couldn’t take the starting job away from Rex Grossman at Florida) will start at QB for the Rams. In much the same way that the only job worse than crack-whore is assistant crack-whore (thank you Norm McDonald) the only QB worse than Rex Grossman is the back-up to Rex Grossman.
THE SPORTSMAN OF THE YEAR (and his merry men) (-10.5) over Raiders:
If you picked Justin Fargas in your Fantasy draft you’re probably smiling. Justin Fargas is ninth in the league in rushing. Of course if you picked Justin Fargas in your fantasy draft everyone else in the room probably looked at you like you were the girl who picked the 13 seed to make the Elite 8 because she like the color scheme of their uniforms. In fact, according to ESPN.com, Justin Fargas is only owned in 86.5% of leagues even now. If Justin Fargas is available in your league, go pick Justin Fargas up! (you may have noticed I’ve typed Justin Fargas’ full name seven times now, this is because this is probably the most pub. Justin Fargas(8) has received since high school and I want you to remember Justin Fargas’(9) name long enough to add Justin Fargas (10) to your fantasy team) None of this will matter as Favre has apparently awakened the spirits of Packers past, and there’s no way they lose again before arriving in Dallas for the NFC Championship game.
Steelers (+10.5) over PATRIOTS:
I would have taken the Steelers straight up against the Pats until Anthony Smith made the weakest guarantee in sports history. First of all, who is Anthony Smith? Secondly, if you’re going to guarantee a win, don’t follow your guarantee by saying (paraphrased) ‘as long as everything goes right and we play the way we’re capable and the offense and special teams don’t screw us then we’ll win.’ Why don’t you just say that if you hold them to fewer points than your offense scores you’ll win? How about you leave the trash talk to the guys who have started for more than a month? Ass.
Buccaneers (-3) over TEXANS:
Garcia is back, and Matt Schaub has a glass jaw. Ahman Green is on IR and Ron Dayne is awful in goal line situations despite weighing 245 pounds and has no burst at the second level. As with most other games this season, it’s not so much that the Bucs are good as that they are playing teams devoid of talent.
Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS:
I can’t explain this one. On paper, the Seahawks should win easily. But they didn’t win in week 2 in Arizona, and while the ‘Hawks might win, I don’t think they will cover this week.
49ERS (+8.5) over Vikings:
You can’t give a one dimensional team like the Vikings more than a touchdown on the road… even against a team as bad as San Fran. In case you didn’t know, the 49ers have the tie-breaker against the other 3-9 teams for the #2 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. That pick belongs to the Patriots. Can you imagine the Pats going 19-0 and then adding Darren McFadden? That just doesn’t seem fair.
Browns (-3.5) over JETS:
No brainer. How do the Vikings give 8.5 on the road while the Browns only give 3.5 against equally awful teams? How is a 7-5 team only a 3.5 point favorite against a team who is 3-9 with two of those wins coming against the Dolphins?
Chiefs (+6.5) over BRONCOS:
This is the Masochist Game of the Week. You have to really hate yourself to watch or bet on this game.
Colts (-9) over RAVENS:
There’s no way Kyle Boller and Willis McGahee have the games of their lives in consecutive weeks. And that’s what it would take to keep this game close.
Saints (-4) over FALCONS:
This game is why they need to wait until the pre-season to decide which games will be on MNF each week. Did anyone think this would be a good game after Vick’s suspension? And now that the Saints have lost both starting running backs, we can’t even hope for an explosive blowout. Saints win 17-12.
Last Week: 9-7 ATS
Cowboys (-10.5) over LIONS:
The free-fall continues for Kitna and the Fighting Simbas. After getting dismantled last week by the best running back tandem in the league, this week they get the second best pair supported by an excellent passing attack and a stout defense. It looks like a blow-out which the way my predictions have gone this year means the Lions will win this one. Oh well, live by the sword… I’ll take the ‘Boys on the road by a ton.
BILLS (-7) over Dolphins:
Is there anything left to say about the Dolphins at this point? How about this: John Beck has thrown for 418 yards in his 3 starts for Miami…combined… with zero touchdowns and 3 INTs. In fact, the Dolphins have not scored an offensive touchdown passing or rushing with Beck at the helm. Matt Ryan to Miami #1 overall in April?
Giants (+2.5) over EAGLES:
I’ve gotten to the point where I need to wash my hands after picking the Giants to win games. Betting on Eli just makes me feel dirty. But the spreads are just so enticing week after week… I bet this is how crack feels.
Panthers (+10.5) over JAGUARS:
This game screams TRAP!!! A tough loss last week to Indy effectively knocks them to Wild Card status, and with the Steelers looming next week, the Jags are ripe for the picking. Too bad they’re playing the Ageless Wonder Vinny T and the toothless Panthers. I really can’t think of any reason to pick the Panthers other than I just can’t pick the Jags this week.
TITANS (PK) over Chargers:
I have made the wrong pick in every Titans game this year. No kidding. So this week I decided to get scientific about the process. I flipped a coin…and it bounced so that it was leaning against the wall. I can’t make this stuff up. The second time I flipped it, it came up heads, which I predetermined to be the Titans. My advise to you is to pick the Chargers.
BENGALS (-7) over Rams:
I was all set to pick the Rams in this one. Then I heard that Marc Bulger will be out meaning Brock Berlin (aka the guy who couldn’t take the starting job away from Rex Grossman at Florida) will start at QB for the Rams. In much the same way that the only job worse than crack-whore is assistant crack-whore (thank you Norm McDonald) the only QB worse than Rex Grossman is the back-up to Rex Grossman.
THE SPORTSMAN OF THE YEAR (and his merry men) (-10.5) over Raiders:
If you picked Justin Fargas in your Fantasy draft you’re probably smiling. Justin Fargas is ninth in the league in rushing. Of course if you picked Justin Fargas in your fantasy draft everyone else in the room probably looked at you like you were the girl who picked the 13 seed to make the Elite 8 because she like the color scheme of their uniforms. In fact, according to ESPN.com, Justin Fargas is only owned in 86.5% of leagues even now. If Justin Fargas is available in your league, go pick Justin Fargas up! (you may have noticed I’ve typed Justin Fargas’ full name seven times now, this is because this is probably the most pub. Justin Fargas(8) has received since high school and I want you to remember Justin Fargas’(9) name long enough to add Justin Fargas (10) to your fantasy team) None of this will matter as Favre has apparently awakened the spirits of Packers past, and there’s no way they lose again before arriving in Dallas for the NFC Championship game.
Steelers (+10.5) over PATRIOTS:
I would have taken the Steelers straight up against the Pats until Anthony Smith made the weakest guarantee in sports history. First of all, who is Anthony Smith? Secondly, if you’re going to guarantee a win, don’t follow your guarantee by saying (paraphrased) ‘as long as everything goes right and we play the way we’re capable and the offense and special teams don’t screw us then we’ll win.’ Why don’t you just say that if you hold them to fewer points than your offense scores you’ll win? How about you leave the trash talk to the guys who have started for more than a month? Ass.
Buccaneers (-3) over TEXANS:
Garcia is back, and Matt Schaub has a glass jaw. Ahman Green is on IR and Ron Dayne is awful in goal line situations despite weighing 245 pounds and has no burst at the second level. As with most other games this season, it’s not so much that the Bucs are good as that they are playing teams devoid of talent.
Cardinals (+7) over SEAHAWKS:
I can’t explain this one. On paper, the Seahawks should win easily. But they didn’t win in week 2 in Arizona, and while the ‘Hawks might win, I don’t think they will cover this week.
49ERS (+8.5) over Vikings:
You can’t give a one dimensional team like the Vikings more than a touchdown on the road… even against a team as bad as San Fran. In case you didn’t know, the 49ers have the tie-breaker against the other 3-9 teams for the #2 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft. That pick belongs to the Patriots. Can you imagine the Pats going 19-0 and then adding Darren McFadden? That just doesn’t seem fair.
Browns (-3.5) over JETS:
No brainer. How do the Vikings give 8.5 on the road while the Browns only give 3.5 against equally awful teams? How is a 7-5 team only a 3.5 point favorite against a team who is 3-9 with two of those wins coming against the Dolphins?
Chiefs (+6.5) over BRONCOS:
This is the Masochist Game of the Week. You have to really hate yourself to watch or bet on this game.
Colts (-9) over RAVENS:
There’s no way Kyle Boller and Willis McGahee have the games of their lives in consecutive weeks. And that’s what it would take to keep this game close.
Saints (-4) over FALCONS:
This game is why they need to wait until the pre-season to decide which games will be on MNF each week. Did anyone think this would be a good game after Vick’s suspension? And now that the Saints have lost both starting running backs, we can’t even hope for an explosive blowout. Saints win 17-12.
Last Week: 9-7 ATS
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Week 14 NFL Picks A and other stuff...
Week 14 NFL Picks Against the Spread A (HOME team in caps)
Bears (+3) over REDSKINS:
Yet another example of the Super Bowl losers’ curse rears its’ ugly head. Injuries have decimated the Bears secondary, and Rex Grossman would have to run the table to have any chance at being a Bear next year. Cedric Benson is officially a bust. On the other hand, after a 4-2 start, the Redskins have lost 5 of 6 (including 4 straight) and are an overtime win against the lowly J-E-T-S (lose-lose-lose) from a 6 game losing streak. Last week the ‘Skins had emotion on their side, but a last second field goal crushed their spirit. I think both of these teams are done, but Joe Gibbs probably lost his team at the end of last weeks game, and I don’t see them recovering in a short week made shorter by Sean Taylor’s funeral. On a side note: if the Skins lose this game they will end the season on an eight game losing streak with games at the Giants and Vikes before finishing at home with Dallas.
Other Thoughts:
1. The Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade makes the Detroit Tigers a legit power in the American League. But does it really make them the favorite? Remember the Yankees have had the most potent lineup in baseball for several years and they haven't made it to the World Series since 2003, and even that required a herculean effort in their comeback in game 7 of the ALCS and more importantly Grady Little making the worst coaching move since Bob Stanley entered game 6 of the 1986 World Series. For all the Tigers offensive firepower in 2008, we have seen that it is pitching that wins championships. The Tigers will have exactly ZERO starting pitchers next year who are coming off of a season in which they posted an ERA under 3.60. They have two starters coming off seasons with an ERA over 4.00, and two more coming off seasons with an ERA over 5.00, and one of those (Willis) did it in the National League in which you really only need to pitch to 7.5 guys in the lineup.
2. Yohan Santana hasn't been moved much to my surprise. The Twins MUST trade him or re-sign him before the season starts. No way they will get nearly the package back at the deadline because they won't be able to offer him up as a guy you can re-sign just months before hitting the open market. I still think he'll get traded, especially with the strength of the AL Central, but if the Twins are thinking to compete, then they best get moving. They will have to sign Barry Bonds to DH and Aaron Rowand to play CF. They'll need to go get Carlos Silva, and probably an arm or two for the pen. These moves would cost in the $100 million neighborhood for the lives of these contracts. Basically, with as cheap as the Twins have been, there's no way they'll make the moves necessary to make a run in the Central. Now if they resign Santana for 6 years $135 million, they might (though I doubt it) be in position to make a run at a serious bat in a few years when they've got the added revenue from the new stadium. But by then, Santana will be in his mid-30's, and they'll have to pay Morneau and Mauer too. I just don't see it. Maybe they are waiting for someone to get desperate, but I think the Twins have badly misplayed their hand here. They had the Red Sox ready to give up 5 players including 3 or 4 guys who would make the Opening Day 2008 roster and couldn't pull the trigger. They were going to get 95 cents on the dollar at least, and now they'll be lucky to get 80 cents on the dollar. Less if they wait til after Opening Day.
3. I'll give you the 2007 lines of a pair of Gold Glove caliber center fielders.
85 runs, 28 SB, 7 3B, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 28 SB, .268 BA, .712 OPS
83 runs, 27 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 5 SB, .222 BA, .724 OPS
Which would you rather have? Now if I told you that the first guy would make $10 million over the next two year and the other would make $36.2 million. Is anyone not taking the first guy? The first guy is Coco Crisp, and the Dodgers just paid more 3.5 times as much for the same amount of time and pretty much the same stat line trading steals and batting average for home runs. The RBI are more a factor of where these guys batted in their respective lineups. With the way this deal will drive up the contract values of guys like Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, did Coco's value just rise considerably in the trade discussion with the Twins about Santana?
Bears (+3) over REDSKINS:
Yet another example of the Super Bowl losers’ curse rears its’ ugly head. Injuries have decimated the Bears secondary, and Rex Grossman would have to run the table to have any chance at being a Bear next year. Cedric Benson is officially a bust. On the other hand, after a 4-2 start, the Redskins have lost 5 of 6 (including 4 straight) and are an overtime win against the lowly J-E-T-S (lose-lose-lose) from a 6 game losing streak. Last week the ‘Skins had emotion on their side, but a last second field goal crushed their spirit. I think both of these teams are done, but Joe Gibbs probably lost his team at the end of last weeks game, and I don’t see them recovering in a short week made shorter by Sean Taylor’s funeral. On a side note: if the Skins lose this game they will end the season on an eight game losing streak with games at the Giants and Vikes before finishing at home with Dallas.
Other Thoughts:
1. The Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade makes the Detroit Tigers a legit power in the American League. But does it really make them the favorite? Remember the Yankees have had the most potent lineup in baseball for several years and they haven't made it to the World Series since 2003, and even that required a herculean effort in their comeback in game 7 of the ALCS and more importantly Grady Little making the worst coaching move since Bob Stanley entered game 6 of the 1986 World Series. For all the Tigers offensive firepower in 2008, we have seen that it is pitching that wins championships. The Tigers will have exactly ZERO starting pitchers next year who are coming off of a season in which they posted an ERA under 3.60. They have two starters coming off seasons with an ERA over 4.00, and two more coming off seasons with an ERA over 5.00, and one of those (Willis) did it in the National League in which you really only need to pitch to 7.5 guys in the lineup.
2. Yohan Santana hasn't been moved much to my surprise. The Twins MUST trade him or re-sign him before the season starts. No way they will get nearly the package back at the deadline because they won't be able to offer him up as a guy you can re-sign just months before hitting the open market. I still think he'll get traded, especially with the strength of the AL Central, but if the Twins are thinking to compete, then they best get moving. They will have to sign Barry Bonds to DH and Aaron Rowand to play CF. They'll need to go get Carlos Silva, and probably an arm or two for the pen. These moves would cost in the $100 million neighborhood for the lives of these contracts. Basically, with as cheap as the Twins have been, there's no way they'll make the moves necessary to make a run in the Central. Now if they resign Santana for 6 years $135 million, they might (though I doubt it) be in position to make a run at a serious bat in a few years when they've got the added revenue from the new stadium. But by then, Santana will be in his mid-30's, and they'll have to pay Morneau and Mauer too. I just don't see it. Maybe they are waiting for someone to get desperate, but I think the Twins have badly misplayed their hand here. They had the Red Sox ready to give up 5 players including 3 or 4 guys who would make the Opening Day 2008 roster and couldn't pull the trigger. They were going to get 95 cents on the dollar at least, and now they'll be lucky to get 80 cents on the dollar. Less if they wait til after Opening Day.
3. I'll give you the 2007 lines of a pair of Gold Glove caliber center fielders.
85 runs, 28 SB, 7 3B, 6 HR, 60 RBI, 28 SB, .268 BA, .712 OPS
83 runs, 27 2B, 2 3B, 26 HR, 94 RBI, 5 SB, .222 BA, .724 OPS
Which would you rather have? Now if I told you that the first guy would make $10 million over the next two year and the other would make $36.2 million. Is anyone not taking the first guy? The first guy is Coco Crisp, and the Dodgers just paid more 3.5 times as much for the same amount of time and pretty much the same stat line trading steals and batting average for home runs. The RBI are more a factor of where these guys batted in their respective lineups. With the way this deal will drive up the contract values of guys like Aaron Rowand and Mike Cameron, did Coco's value just rise considerably in the trade discussion with the Twins about Santana?
Saturday, December 1, 2007
MLB Winter Meetings Preview
Dan Haren’s name has been tossed around as a “cheaper” alternative to Santana, possibly for the team that comes in second in the Santana Sweepstakes. Allow me to be perfectly clear: F#$% THAT! (Ok, maybe all the non-letter symbols isn't perfectly clear, but if you don't get it leave your email address in the comments and I'll explain further) On the surface, this looks ok. Last year, Haren went 15-9, Santana went 15-13. Haren’s ERA was 3.07, Santana’s was 3.33. Haren threw 222 innings to Santana’s 219. But if you dig a little deeper, these two pitchers aren’t close to equal. Alright, Haren had an awesome first half last year (10-3, 2.30 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, .205 BAA). But his second half (5-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .298 BAA) was mediocre at best. While Santana was consistent in a down year, Haren was all over the place posting an ERA over 4.00 in three months while posting an ERA under 1.70 in two months. Neither pitcher was good down the stretch in September. A closer look though shows that Santana’s WHIP barely budged after the break (from 1.01 to 1.12), and while Haren’s BAA jumped by nearly 50%, Santana’s moved by less than 10 % after the Break. Yes, Haren is locked up for the next three years (~$16M) for less than 1 year of Santana will cost after a new deal is worked out, but the A’s are expecting a prospect package similar to that which Santana will draw. As a Red Sox fan I can only say that I hope that anyone but the Yankees gets Santana just so that Hank and George Steinbrenner will be that much more motivated to over-pay for Haren.
On to some of my expectations for the winter meetings…
Chances* That Player X Will Be Traded:
Johan Santana 90%
Miguel Cabrera 67%
Miguel Tejada 33%
Ervin Santana 80%
Coco Crisp 95%
Erik Bedard 25%
Dan Haren 50%
Joe Blanton 10%
Jon Lester 40%
Clay Buchholz 40%
Juan Uribe 100%
Gerald Laird 33%
Luke Scott 50%
Ben Broussard 40%
Chris Capuano 33%
Joe Nathan 50%
Scott Rolen 45%
Jacoby Ellsbury 4%
Jonny Gomes 10%
Cliff Lee 25%
Scott Kazmir 1%
Manny Ramirez 1%
*Note all numbers are based on virtually nothing
Santana is going to be the key in the winter meetings. If/when he gets dealt; floodgates on deals will burst wide open.
A few scenarios:
If someone other than the Angels lands Santana, then LA of Anaheim will be clear to unload for Miguel Cabrera. And as soon as Cabrera goes, expect the trigger to be quick for someone to acquire Scott Rolen.
If the Red Sox land Santana, expect the Hank Steinbrenner to promise his first born son to get Dan Haren, and another pitcher from the Joe Blanton, Erik Bedard, AJ Burnett, Ervin Santana class too.
If the Yankees land Santana, they will know what they have available to trade for someone from the Blanton, Bedard, Burnett, E. Santana group. Here’s a side thought: anyone else think Andy Petitte is just waiting to see how the Santana situation unfolds to decide if he wants to come back. Why come back at his age and health status to pitch his heart out only to have the other 4 guys in the rotation get shelled night in, night out? The Yankees acquisition of Santana would also allow the Red Sox to either move on to the possibility of a Haren trade (hopefully not) as well as allowing them to start filling out their bench (since they will have a better idea of their available payroll) and look for another home for Coco Crisp.
Just for fun, I’ll start another trade rumor that has about a .0001% chance of happening:
To Minnesota (from): 2B/SS Tony Granadillo(B-AA), CF Willy Tavarez (C), 3B Garret Atkins (C), SP Michael Bowden (B-AA) & SP Jon Lester (B)
To Colorado (from): SP Justin Masterson (B-AA), SS Jed Lowrie (B-AA), CF Coco Crisp (B) & RP Craig Hansen (B-AAA)
To Boston (from): RP Brian Fuentes (C), C Chris Ianetta (C) & SP Johan Santana (M)
Why it could work:
Tavarez, Atkins, Bowden and Lester would all be on the Twins 25 man roster on opening day, and Granadillo could be there by the All-Star Break in 2009.
Masterson would be in the rotation for Colorado on Opening Day 2008 . Crisp's ability to hit a steadier diet of fastballs would allow him to replace Tavarez (who was never able to hold onto an every day job anyway). Lowrie would be the spring training favorite to start at 2B with the departure of Kaz Matsui, and Hansen would be on the short list to work the 7th or 8th in Coors. Trading Atkins at peak value (pre-arbitration) would allow the Rockies to move Ian Stewart into the every day lineup at 3B. Resigning Yorvit Torrealba for two years with a team option for a third allows the Rockies to deal Ianetta while waiting to see if Edwin Bellorin can put together another season like 2007 at AAA Colorado Springs. Fuentes lost his closer job to Manny Corpas and the Rockies need to dump his salary($3.5M in 2007).
Santana is obvious for Boston, while Ianetta would be the ideal understudy and eventual replacement for Varitek and Fuentes would allow the Sox to deal or drop inconsistent Javier Lopez.
On to some of my expectations for the winter meetings…
Chances* That Player X Will Be Traded:
Johan Santana 90%
Miguel Cabrera 67%
Miguel Tejada 33%
Ervin Santana 80%
Coco Crisp 95%
Erik Bedard 25%
Dan Haren 50%
Joe Blanton 10%
Jon Lester 40%
Clay Buchholz 40%
Juan Uribe 100%
Gerald Laird 33%
Luke Scott 50%
Ben Broussard 40%
Chris Capuano 33%
Joe Nathan 50%
Scott Rolen 45%
Jacoby Ellsbury 4%
Jonny Gomes 10%
Cliff Lee 25%
Scott Kazmir 1%
Manny Ramirez 1%
*Note all numbers are based on virtually nothing
Santana is going to be the key in the winter meetings. If/when he gets dealt; floodgates on deals will burst wide open.
A few scenarios:
If someone other than the Angels lands Santana, then LA of Anaheim will be clear to unload for Miguel Cabrera. And as soon as Cabrera goes, expect the trigger to be quick for someone to acquire Scott Rolen.
If the Red Sox land Santana, expect the Hank Steinbrenner to promise his first born son to get Dan Haren, and another pitcher from the Joe Blanton, Erik Bedard, AJ Burnett, Ervin Santana class too.
If the Yankees land Santana, they will know what they have available to trade for someone from the Blanton, Bedard, Burnett, E. Santana group. Here’s a side thought: anyone else think Andy Petitte is just waiting to see how the Santana situation unfolds to decide if he wants to come back. Why come back at his age and health status to pitch his heart out only to have the other 4 guys in the rotation get shelled night in, night out? The Yankees acquisition of Santana would also allow the Red Sox to either move on to the possibility of a Haren trade (hopefully not) as well as allowing them to start filling out their bench (since they will have a better idea of their available payroll) and look for another home for Coco Crisp.
Just for fun, I’ll start another trade rumor that has about a .0001% chance of happening:
To Minnesota (from): 2B/SS Tony Granadillo(B-AA), CF Willy Tavarez (C), 3B Garret Atkins (C), SP Michael Bowden (B-AA) & SP Jon Lester (B)
To Colorado (from): SP Justin Masterson (B-AA), SS Jed Lowrie (B-AA), CF Coco Crisp (B) & RP Craig Hansen (B-AAA)
To Boston (from): RP Brian Fuentes (C), C Chris Ianetta (C) & SP Johan Santana (M)
Why it could work:
Tavarez, Atkins, Bowden and Lester would all be on the Twins 25 man roster on opening day, and Granadillo could be there by the All-Star Break in 2009.
Masterson would be in the rotation for Colorado on Opening Day 2008 . Crisp's ability to hit a steadier diet of fastballs would allow him to replace Tavarez (who was never able to hold onto an every day job anyway). Lowrie would be the spring training favorite to start at 2B with the departure of Kaz Matsui, and Hansen would be on the short list to work the 7th or 8th in Coors. Trading Atkins at peak value (pre-arbitration) would allow the Rockies to move Ian Stewart into the every day lineup at 3B. Resigning Yorvit Torrealba for two years with a team option for a third allows the Rockies to deal Ianetta while waiting to see if Edwin Bellorin can put together another season like 2007 at AAA Colorado Springs. Fuentes lost his closer job to Manny Corpas and the Rockies need to dump his salary($3.5M in 2007).
Santana is obvious for Boston, while Ianetta would be the ideal understudy and eventual replacement for Varitek and Fuentes would allow the Sox to deal or drop inconsistent Javier Lopez.
Week 13 NFL Picks
Week 13 Against the Spread (HOME team in caps)
Lions (+3.5) over VIKINGS:
I hate this game. The free-falling Lions v. the suddenly luke-warm Vikes. If AP isn’t playing, this is a no-brainer, but he is playing. I don’t like it, but I’ll take the points against Tavaris Jackson.
RAMS (-3) over Falcons:
Frerotte v. Harrington. If you bet on this game you have a gambling problem. Get help.
Texans (+4) over TITANS:
I’ve bet on the Vince Young who only wins games three weeks in a row. Apparently he retired after his rookie season. He couldn’t even keep it close against the Bengals. I’ll bet against him and the Titans will win by two touchdowns. That’s the way this year is going.
Jets (+1) over DOLPHINS:
So much for the “Man-genius.” A year after going to the playoffs, the Jets are an underdog to a 0-11 team.
REDSKINS (-5.5) over Bills:
See Rams v. Falcons.
CHARGERS (-5.5) over Chiefs:
The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7, and the Chiefs are coming off of a loss to the Raiders. ‘Nuff said.
Jaguars (+6.5) over COLTS:
This game should decide the AFC South. The Colts are beat up on both sides of the ball, and Harrison will not play again this week. David Garrard’s decision making has been Manning/Brady-esque in recent weeks. My heart says Jags, but my brain says Colts. Can you imagine the Colts as a Wild Card team? Me neither, but I’ll take the points as the Jags keep it close only to lose late on a Vinatieri field goal.
Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES:
A week after coaching the game of his life, Andy Reid makes one of the worst coaching decisions of his career: benching the hot hand…alright, how about warm hand… in AJ Feeley to trot out a walking wounded Donovan McNabb. McNabb will be on the bench by the half, but the Eagles will be down two scores or more, and even the great …uh…slightly better than mediocre AJ Feeley won’t be able to lead them back.
Fantasy Note: Shawn Alexander is back for this game, but expect him to be a decoy and Maurice Morris will still do most of the heavy lifting.
PANTHERS (-3) over 49ers:
Vinny T v. Trent Dilfer. See Redskins v. Bills… catching onto the theme yet? This week sucks.
SAINTS (-3) over Buccaneers:
I feel queasy betting on Jeff Garcia under the best of circumstances. But as a game time decision? When the backup QB options are some guy out of Toledo that you’ve never heard of (sporting a 52.4 QB rating) and the lesser of the McCown brothers… gotta go with the Saints in this one.
Browns (PK) over CARDINALS:
How is the over/under on this game not in the 80’s. 1,000 yards of total combined offense isn’t a possibility, it’s a probability. This has 45-42 written all over it. I’ll take the Browns in the most exciting game of the day.
RAIDERS (+3.5) over Broncos:
My future niece (due in about 5 months) just used Morse code to ask why Mike Shanahan is kicking to Devin Hester. The Broncos will fail to right the ship after last week’s gut wrenching loss.
Giants (-1.5) over BEARS:
Another battle between quarterbacks I refuse to bet on. Still, how is this line so close? As long as the Giants learn from Mike Shanahan’s mistakes, this is a double digit victory for the “G-men”.
STEELERS (-7) over Bengals:
The Steelers have already won by 11 in Cincy. The Steelers are also looking to bounce back from a couple sub standard weeks against bad teams.
Patriots (-20.5) over RAVENS:
The Pats are 9-2 against the spread. The Ravens offense is abysmal. In fact the Ravens may want to dress two punters for this game. Sam Koch could be the first ever punter to suffer from a tired leg from all the work he’s going to get.
Last Week: 7-9 ATS
For those of you who don’t know, Bill Simmons did a Marathon Live Chat to benefit the Jimmy V Foundation on ESPN.com 28 Nov. This was a question and Bill’s answer. The next day, the Knicks lost 104-59 to the Celtics…
Otis (Toronto, ON): This is dedication: 1. Start your chat at the office while closing door to office and declaring a "brainstorming session" 2. Continue on the commmute home via blackberry 3. Continue chat on the home computer, taking breaks for smokes and steaks that being said, how close are we to having the Knicks banished to the WNBA?
Bill Simmons: (12:29 PM ET ) That a boy, Otis! I like the idea of banishing the Knicks to the WNBA - Renaldo Balkman would be the 10th most attractive player in the league.
Lions (+3.5) over VIKINGS:
I hate this game. The free-falling Lions v. the suddenly luke-warm Vikes. If AP isn’t playing, this is a no-brainer, but he is playing. I don’t like it, but I’ll take the points against Tavaris Jackson.
RAMS (-3) over Falcons:
Frerotte v. Harrington. If you bet on this game you have a gambling problem. Get help.
Texans (+4) over TITANS:
I’ve bet on the Vince Young who only wins games three weeks in a row. Apparently he retired after his rookie season. He couldn’t even keep it close against the Bengals. I’ll bet against him and the Titans will win by two touchdowns. That’s the way this year is going.
Jets (+1) over DOLPHINS:
So much for the “Man-genius.” A year after going to the playoffs, the Jets are an underdog to a 0-11 team.
REDSKINS (-5.5) over Bills:
See Rams v. Falcons.
CHARGERS (-5.5) over Chiefs:
The Chargers have won 5 of their last 7, and the Chiefs are coming off of a loss to the Raiders. ‘Nuff said.
Jaguars (+6.5) over COLTS:
This game should decide the AFC South. The Colts are beat up on both sides of the ball, and Harrison will not play again this week. David Garrard’s decision making has been Manning/Brady-esque in recent weeks. My heart says Jags, but my brain says Colts. Can you imagine the Colts as a Wild Card team? Me neither, but I’ll take the points as the Jags keep it close only to lose late on a Vinatieri field goal.
Seahawks (+3) over EAGLES:
A week after coaching the game of his life, Andy Reid makes one of the worst coaching decisions of his career: benching the hot hand…alright, how about warm hand… in AJ Feeley to trot out a walking wounded Donovan McNabb. McNabb will be on the bench by the half, but the Eagles will be down two scores or more, and even the great …uh…slightly better than mediocre AJ Feeley won’t be able to lead them back.
Fantasy Note: Shawn Alexander is back for this game, but expect him to be a decoy and Maurice Morris will still do most of the heavy lifting.
PANTHERS (-3) over 49ers:
Vinny T v. Trent Dilfer. See Redskins v. Bills… catching onto the theme yet? This week sucks.
SAINTS (-3) over Buccaneers:
I feel queasy betting on Jeff Garcia under the best of circumstances. But as a game time decision? When the backup QB options are some guy out of Toledo that you’ve never heard of (sporting a 52.4 QB rating) and the lesser of the McCown brothers… gotta go with the Saints in this one.
Browns (PK) over CARDINALS:
How is the over/under on this game not in the 80’s. 1,000 yards of total combined offense isn’t a possibility, it’s a probability. This has 45-42 written all over it. I’ll take the Browns in the most exciting game of the day.
RAIDERS (+3.5) over Broncos:
My future niece (due in about 5 months) just used Morse code to ask why Mike Shanahan is kicking to Devin Hester. The Broncos will fail to right the ship after last week’s gut wrenching loss.
Giants (-1.5) over BEARS:
Another battle between quarterbacks I refuse to bet on. Still, how is this line so close? As long as the Giants learn from Mike Shanahan’s mistakes, this is a double digit victory for the “G-men”.
STEELERS (-7) over Bengals:
The Steelers have already won by 11 in Cincy. The Steelers are also looking to bounce back from a couple sub standard weeks against bad teams.
Patriots (-20.5) over RAVENS:
The Pats are 9-2 against the spread. The Ravens offense is abysmal. In fact the Ravens may want to dress two punters for this game. Sam Koch could be the first ever punter to suffer from a tired leg from all the work he’s going to get.
Last Week: 7-9 ATS
For those of you who don’t know, Bill Simmons did a Marathon Live Chat to benefit the Jimmy V Foundation on ESPN.com 28 Nov. This was a question and Bill’s answer. The next day, the Knicks lost 104-59 to the Celtics…
Otis (Toronto, ON): This is dedication: 1. Start your chat at the office while closing door to office and declaring a "brainstorming session" 2. Continue on the commmute home via blackberry 3. Continue chat on the home computer, taking breaks for smokes and steaks that being said, how close are we to having the Knicks banished to the WNBA?
Bill Simmons: (12:29 PM ET ) That a boy, Otis! I like the idea of banishing the Knicks to the WNBA - Renaldo Balkman would be the 10th most attractive player in the league.
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