Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 11 Picks Against the Spread (HOME teams in caps)
I know this is my NFL Picks blog, but I can’t leave this alone through the weekend. By now, you’ve certainly heard that Barry Bonds has been indicted on perjury and obstruction of justice charges. This has to be the straw that breaks the camel’s back when it comes to Barry’s Hall of Fame chances. You will hear over the next several months and years that Barry belongs in The Hall because he was a hall of fame player before he started taking steroids/HGH, and that you are innocent until proven guilty. Really? Tell that to Pete Rose. Rose was a Hall of Fame caliber player. He was just a shadey manager. How about “Shoeless” Joe Jackson? “Shoeless” Joe was acquitted of all charges associated with the “Black Sox” scandal. Rose is the all time hits leader. “Shoeless” Joe had a .940 career OPS and had 10 more triples than strikeouts in his career. These guys were no-question, first ballot Hall of Fame players before their indiscretions, and neither is likely to ever be allowed into the Hall of Fame. On to my Week 11 NFL picks…

Raiders (+5.5) over VIKINGS:
Let’s see, two anemic passing offenses means two teams who can only run the ball going up against two solid run defenses. Dante Culpepper throwing deep balls for Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry once in a while scares me more than anything Minnesota’s Brooks Bollinger led passing offense can muster. Soooo….. 12-10 Vikings sound to you like too high of a score? Me too, but I’ll take Oakland and the points on the road anyway.

Dolphins (+10) over EAGLES:
The Dolphins have played inspired D last few weeks, including holding the Giants to 13 points and scoreless in the 2nd half. The new QB juice that John Beck will add to the offense should help some, and the rush offense has picked it up of late. Oh and its 10 points in the NFL. The Dolphins will lose, but they’ll keep it close.

JAGUARS (-3) over Chargers:
Both these teams are coming off of big wins. Well at least the Jaguars are, the Chargers just managed to lose less than the Colts last week. David Garrard should be back from an ankle injury this week, and he has played well this year. Did you know he hasn’t thrown an interception yet this year? He’s completing 66% of his passes, and while he won’t win a game for you, he’s done an admirable job of game management. He also adds an escapability element that might slow down the Chargers’ Shawn Merriman led pass rush. The Chargers are just too poorly led (Norv Turner and Phil Rivers) and too erratic to bet on week to week, especially on the road. The Colts are vulnerable with the losses of Harrison and Freeney. The Jags need to win this game if they want a shot at the AFC South. The Jags win in comeback style late.

Browns(-3) over RAVENS:
This should be one of the more interesting games to watch this weekend. The Ravens’ D is a battered (especially in the secondary) but proud group. However, the Ravens’ offense is anemic. They took 58 minutes to score against Cincinnati, and Cincy’s D hasn’t been able to stop anyone this season. Cleveland on the other hand is developing one of the best young offenses in the league. With the recent injuries to Dallas Clark and Marvin Harrison, Cleveland’s receiving corps of Braylon Edwards, Joe Jurevicius, and (as much as I can’t stand him) Kellen Winslow has stepped up to become the best receiving trio outside of New England. Jamal Lewis is still a solid runner between the tackles (and why would you try to run outside against the Ravens anyway?) who will have a little extra juice playing against the team that gave up on him. The Browns get it done on the road to stay in the playoff hunt, and essentially knock the Ravens out of playoff contention.

On a personal note, Steve McNair has been one of the great warrior quarterbacks the NFL has seen. His toughness has rivaled Brett Favre’s on far less talented teams. However, McNair’s body has failed him after years of beatings behind less than stellar offensive lines. Kyle Boller will take over the quarterback position as I think we’ve seen the last of Steve McNair as a starting QB in the NFL. Congratulations Steve on a great career.

TEXANS (-1) over Saints:
This is a tough one because the Saints are incredibly inconsistent. Drew Brees could throw for 400 yards (as he did against Jax), or he could throw 4 picks (as he did against Ten). The Texans on the other hand are getting Matt Schaub back this week. He’s been very capable this year at getting the ball to his play-making wideouts, and the 1-2 punch of Ron Dayne and Ahman Green should be able to further loosen a weak New Orleans pass defense. And when in doubt, take the AFC team at home over the NFC team.

Buccaneers (-3) over FALCONS:
I’m still not a Joey Harrington fan, but when you win two straight with him at the helm, don’t you have to ride the hot hand? It’s not like he was backing up Brady or Manning, even Eli. This is Byron Leftwich. I love Leftwich’s guts. The game at Marshall when he broke his leg and his linemen had to carry him down the field to take the next snap is one of my all time favorite moments in sports. But he hasn’t panned out in the NFL due in no small part to a multitude of injuries. The whole Falcons organization is in shambles, and I can see betting on them against the Bucs and a rejuvenated Jeff Garcia.

BENGALS (-3) over Cardinals:
I hate this game. The Bengals are the Ravens reversed. A talented offense, great defensive coach who can’t figure out how to get the defense to play, and a talented offense that is tired of having to do all the work. I honestly think that if Brian Bilick and Marvin Lewis were traded for each other, then these teams would be playoff teams. Maybe we’ll find out next year after both get fired for missing the playoffs again. The Cardinals will nickel and dime their way down the field against Cincy’s weak D while Carson Palmer continues to get the ball to his playmakers, and in the end, the Bengals will make just enough plays to win this one at home. Cincy by a touchdown.

LIONS (+2.5) over Giants:
Both these teams are coming off of big losses. The Giants have a history of collapsing in the second half, while the Lions have a history of collapsing in training camp. Which of these teams is headed for a Wild Card slot, and which is headed for an 8-8 season. I’ve got to think that the Lions use some Kitna magic, their running game (seriously, 8 rushes against the Cardinals!?), and several Eli Manning interceptions to win this one at home. The Giants will turn on Tom Coughlin after another loss this week. How many times does this scenario have to play out before Coughlin gets fired? Is he the new Wayne Fontes of the NFL? I guess we’ll see this week against Fontes old team.

Panthers (+9.5) over PACKERS:
I know, the Packers at Lambeau in November against David Carr and/or Vinny T. Don’t get me wrong, the Packers win this game. But 9.5 points is a lot in the NFL, and Steve Smith can still play. That said, the Smith v Charles Woodson match-up should be fantastic. Maybe I’m giving the Panthers too much credit, because this is really a feeling game for me. Sometimes I gotta trust my insticts. But you probably shouldn’t trust my instincts.

COLTS (-14.5) over Chiefs:
Yes, the Colts are beat up. Freeney’s gone for the season, their top two options at left tackle are beat up, and the receiving corps was in such rough shape that the Colts only dressed 3 wideouts against the Chargers. But Peyton’s had a week to work with those wideouts, and Dallas Clark should be back. If Larry Johnson were playing, it might be different, especially without Freeney, but it’ll be Preist Holmes lining up behind Brody Croyle, and this ain’t 2003. The Colts will get a lift from the RCA crowd, and bounce back at home, big.

Steelers (-10) over JETS:
The Jets are bad… like Dolphins bad. After 6 straight losses, they were officially eliminated from the playoffs in Week 10. Their fans are already looking forward to the Mets’ spring training. The Steelers, on the other hand, are one of the top teams in the NFL. This one won’t be close, and there’s really nothing more to say. This one’s over by the half.

Rams (-3) over 49ERS:
So Trent Dilfer is set to replace Alex Smith as the starting quarterback for the 49ers this weekend. Did anyone outside San Francisco know Trent Dilfer was still in the NFL? Wait, on second thought, did anyone outside the Dilfer family know Trent Dilfer was still in the NFL? The Rams are out of it, but there are a lot of proud players on their offense who aren’t about to raise the white flag on this season.

SEAHAWKS (-5.5) over Bears:
Two words: Rex Grossman. I think Rex’s confidence has been shattered after being benched. He’s going to push too hard to prove that he should remain the starter when Griese comes back, and it’s going to backfire. At least 3 picks by Grossman before he gets lifted in the 4th quarter of a still close game. Hasselbeck appears to be getting in sync with his receivers, and he’ll continue to get it done this week thanks to 3 or 4 short field opportunities courtesy of Mr. Grossman.

COWBOYS (-10.5) over Redskins:
The Cowboys are the best team in the NFC because they have balance. Washington got off to a decent start, but the Cowboys are just too talented, especially in the front seven. The Cowboys will pressure Jason Campbell into some bad decisions, and Tony Romo will capitalize on them. Terrell Owens will make a couple big plays down the field, and Jason Witten and Marion Barber will bludgeon the Skins’ interior. This will be a competitive game in the first half, but Washington’s D won’t be able to get off the field in the second half, and the Cowboys will pull away.

Patriots (-16) over BILLS:
I know the Bills have been hot, but I’m sorry, the Patriots are just unstoppable. And they’re rested. Marshawn Lynch is out, and J.P. Losman is in. There’s nothing to like about either of those things. The Bills only have 9 sacks this season, and if there is one thing we know, its that if you can’t pressure Brady, you might as well just stay home. This one is over by halftime, but enjoy the show. The Pats will undoubtedly look to improve upon the 38-7 drubbing they handed Buffalo in Week 3.

Titans (+2) over BRONCOS:
Vince Young just wins games. Granted, LenDale White couldn’t get anything going against Denver the last time they met, but this is an improved LenDale White. Young won’t be able to throw against Denver’s elite corners, so look for a solid dose of White between the tackles, and Young on rollouts, designed runs, and maybe a little spread option out of the gun. Jay Cutler has the arm strength to go deep, but his offensive line may not be able to give him the time, and he really doesn’t have a valid deep threat wide receiver anyway. Look for a low scoring game between two teams looking to grind the clock, and the opposing defense, with short passes and a solid running game. Rob Bironas will be the difference late as the Titans eek out a win late.

Straight up take Vikings, Eagles, Jags, Browns, Texans, Bucs, Bengals, Lions, Packers, Colts, Steelers, Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, Pats, and Titans.

Last Week: 6-8 (ATS), 6-8 (S/U) I’ll keep picking losers if you keep betting against them.