Week 12 NFL Picks A

Week 12 Picks Against the Spread Part A (HOME teams in caps)

PATRIOTS (-23.5 at the moment, but expect -28+ or OFF by Kickoff) over Eagles:

I'm getting my call in on this one before the line gets into the triple digits or gets called off entirely. Randy Moss has 2 more receiving TDs than the entire Eagles team. Wes Welker has 7 receiving TDs this season, good for second best on the NE roster, all Eagles WRs combine for 8 TDs. The Eagles have scored 20 touchdowns this season, the Pats have scored 54. If Randy Moss scores a TD in this game, he will have as many points through 11 games as the Eagles leading scorer (David Akers) had all of last season. The Pats are 9-1 against the spread, and when they cover, its not by a couple points.

Colts (-11.5) over FALCONS:

Warrick Dunn, who leads the Falcons in rushing, is averaging 3.1 YPC and has 3 rushing touchdowns. Peyton Manning is last on the Colts in rushing, averaging -0.6 YPC and has 3 rushing touchdowns…Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have 6 receiving touchdowns each. All Falcon players have combined for 7 receiving touchdowns. Nothing about this game warrants watching other than it’s a Thursday night, and what else are you going to do? No way the Colts drop the ball again. They'll make up for their poor play the last couple weeks and obliterate the Falcons.

Packers (-3.5) over LIONS:

Isn’t the best game supposed to be in prime time? Kinda the opposite this Thanksgiving… The Lions have been outscored by 1 point this season. The Packers have outscored their opponents by 100 points this season. Neither team has much interest in running the ball, so a shootout is a distinct possibility, but the Lions will keep it close thanks to more compact game plans by both teams. In the end though Woodson and Harris will have more luck shutting down the Lions’ receivers than do Bryant and Wilson in shutting down the Packers’ wideouts, and I’ll take Favre over Kitna.

COWBOYS (-14) over Jets:

If you’re like my family and eat Thanksgiving dinner at 1PM, you will be asleep for this game. I strongly suggest this course of action.

Last Week: 6-8-2 (ATS), 12-4 (S/U) I’ll keep picking losers if you keep betting against them.