Mock NFL Draft Ed. 2

So Shaq to Arizona eh? While this should improve the Suns defensively, the Diesel should only be a bit player on this team. Shaq can’t run with Phoenix’s high tempo offense, so unless Steve Nash can run his offense with four on five, Shaq can only be a defensive sub when the Suns decide to go into a more traditional half court game or when they need a defensive stand in the half court late in the game. All in all, I don’t like the trade. Shaq just doesn’t fit in Phoenix.

Curt Schilling’s arm appears to be in trouble. This really doesn’t worry me. Schill was going to be the Sox number three starter at best this year. Remember, he only went 9-8 last year. The Sox don’t need him until October. Curt, get the surgery. Focus on getting healthy for the September/October timeframe so that you can be yourself-one of the most dominant post-season pitchers in history-in time for the playoffs. This will allow Clay Buchholz into the rotation full time, which isn’t a bad thing.

On to scenarios 3 and 4 in the Oakland, Atlanta, Kansas City three way…er…coin flip round robin…

1. Dolphins: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
No way the Fins don’t trade this pick, but I can’t predict to whom or if Miami will pull a Twins and turn down too many good deals. Glenn Dorsey doesn’t really fit in a 3-4 scheme. I’m not sure that Miami is ready to give up on last year’s 2nd round pick John Beck and Chris Long isn’t prototypical at either DE or OLB. Miami doesn’t need a running back with Ronnie Brown coming back from injury for his third season. That leaves Jake Long as the only remaining top 5 talent.

2. Rams: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
If Jake were still available, he would definitely go here, but he won’t be. Chris Long will line up next to last year’s 1st round selection DT Adam Carriker as the Rams solidify their defensive front for the next half-decade and beyond.

The next three picks are determined by coin flips. I’ll present the way I see the draft going down in the last two scenarios next week. Today, I’ll assume Oakland wins the coin flips:

3. Raiders: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
The Silver and Black needs to replace Warren Sapp and Dorsey is a Sapp clone who fits perfectly in the Raiders defensive system, but Al Davis is nuts and loves his toys. I just can’t see him passing on McFadden

If Atlanta is next:

4. Falcons: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
The rebuilding from Hurricane Vick starts with a new quarterback. Ryan is a protypical pocket passer with a rocket arm who guided BC as high as number two in the polls without a lot of NFL talent around him, think Tom Brady in the first couple Super Bowls.

5. Chiefs: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
The Chiefs are in great position. They would take any of the aforementioned guys and be thankful for the discount, but if KC ends up with the fifth pick and if Darren McFadden is still on the board, expect them to shop it. They need help pretty much everywhere except at running back, and if McFadden is still around, someone will step up to get this pick, and get McFadden on the cheap.

If Kansas City is next:

4. Chiefs: Ryan
Kansas City doesn’t appear to be sold on Brody Croyle. He’s got Pennington-itis in his throwing arm and couldn’t beat out Damon Huard for the starting job. Ryan on the other hand has a cannon and has experience taking a team without a lot of weapons farther than they have any business going.

5. Falcons: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
Warrick Dunn already qualifies for running back social security. This might be the dream scenario for Arthur Blank. The Falcons could either trade down (Cowboys?) and pick up more picks (not to mention Marion Barber?) or select the best athlete in the Draft at a serious discount.

6. Jets: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
The Jets would move the 6-3, 255 pounder to rush OLB in their 3-4 scheme and play him like the Willie McGinest or Mike Vrabel type player that Mangini was used to utilizing in New England. As mentioned earlier, anyone who has a shot at McFadden will be shopping the pick.

7. Patriots (from 49ers): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Without a legit playmaker at corner in this year’s draft, re-signing Asante Samuel is a must for the Pats. If they can do that, I’d expect them to trade this pick, if not, McKelvin is the top DB on the board and without any first round talent at ILB, I’d expect the Pats to go with the corner from Troy.

8. Ravens: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
The Ravens need a quarterback almost as bad as the Falcons. I don’t see Brohm as a franchise type guy, but if the Ravens D can rebound and if Willis McGahee can have a solid year, this Louisville product might be able to get them back to the playoffs.

9. Bengals: McFadden (if he’s there) Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC (if not)
Chad Johnson wants out. If packaging this pick with Ocho Cinco could yield a top two or three pick as well as some later picks from the Rams, Dolphins, Chiefs or Raiders (I don’t see the Falcons passing on Ryan) the Bengals would have to give it serious thought. If there isn’t a trade, the Bengals need to spend some serious money getting their defense in shape.

10. Saints: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
The Saints really need a linebacker…any linebacker, but there aren’t any worthy here, so expect them to go with their second biggest need: replacing 5-8 CB Jason David.

11. Bills: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Cal
Lee Evans needs help and Josh Reed is a number three or number four receiver on a contending team. Jackson could step in immediately at the Z for the Bills and also help on kick returns. Toughness is an issue and going from California to Buffalo could be a shock, but Jackson could give this offense the non-quarterback offensive player it needs to challenge for a playoff spot.

12. Broncos: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
The Broncos need help all over the O-line. For the first time since I can remember, the Broncos didn’t have a 1,000 yard rusher. Clady is a giant who could start at RT or either guard position immediately.

13. Panthers: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
The Panthers could use a situational pass rusher next year and Harvey could be groomed to replace aging Mike Rucker.

14. Bears: Sam Baker, OT, USC
Before the Senior Bowl, I’d have said Kentucky QB Andre Woodson here, but Woodson was miserable and probably fell out of first round contention. There aren’t any other quarterbacks worthy of a first round pick, the Bears don’t need to reach for a running back despite uber-bust Cedric Benson, so I expect they’ll use this pick to lock up their bookend of the future.

15. Lions: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
What can I say; there aren’t any wide receivers to take here. The Lions still haven’t replaced Dre Bly, and although I’m not sold on Talib, he’s the best of what’s left at CB. Of course with Matt Millen, you never know…

16. Cardinals: Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
Arizona needs all kinds of help on D and this unpolished genetic marvel is as good a place to start as any.

17. Vikings: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Tavaris Jackson needs help in the passing game…lots of it. Michigan’s Mario Manningham is a possibility here too, but I’ll take the bigger Kelly to play opposite Sidney Rice allowing burner Troy Williamson to move into the slot.

18. Texans: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Houston needs help all over the place, but both Panthers OTs coming up on free agency and Williams could play either bookend.

19. Eagles: Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
Whoever plays QB for Philly next year is going to need help in the passing game. Manningham is a burner and a playmaker, and while he tended to disappear occasionally at Michigan, he’s the best skill position player available.

20. Buccaneers: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The run on wide outs continues as Tampa looks to find a playmaker in the passing game in hopes that Cadillac Williams return from injury will allow them to pass on the running backs that would otherwise fit in this area of the first round.

21. Redskins: Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
The Skins will look to another Miami product to replace Sean Taylor’s presence in the defensive secondary.

22. Cowboys (from Browns): Jeff Otah, OT, Pitt
Jerry Jones wants McFadden. I don’t know why seeing as he’s got a Pro Bowl running back in Marion Barber and a change-of-pace burner in Julius Jones… but he does. If he can’t trade up, the Cowboys could get younger on the O-line.

23. Steelers: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
Neither Brett Keisel nor Nick Eason is a guy you’re excited about starting 16+ times per year, and Merling has the ability to make an impact immediately.

24. Titans: Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Doucet doesn’t excite me as he has neither elite speed nor size and he has trouble staying healthy but he has great hands and flashes a second gear in space. Vince Young needs a playmaker in the passing game or else his slide from Rookie of the Year to Sophomore Slump may continue into year three.

25. Seahawks: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Shaun Alexander looks washed up just 2 years after an MVP season. Maurice Morris is an adequate change-of-pace back but has no business starting. Mendenhall could step in and start immediately, and if Seattle’s passing game can maintain the momentum it built late last season, Rashard could put up some serious numbers.

26. Jaguars: Ellis (if McFadden goes to Cincy) Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn (if not)
Ellis is an obvious value pick here. If he’s gone, Groves could be the situational pass rusher the Jags need on third down until he bulks up into a true 4-3 DE.

27. Chargers: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
This could be where Jonathan Stewart ends up if the Chargers can’t re-sign Michael Turner. With Darren Sproles still on the roster and the wealth of running backs slated to come off the board in the second and third rounds, I can’t see San Diego matching the money that other teams offer, but at the same time I can’t see taking a backup for LDT in the first round when they could upgrade their O-line with a starter at RT.

28. Cowboys: Dan Conner, ILB, Penn State
Conner has the size to play inside and the speed to play outside in a 3-4 scheme. Again, this pick could be packaged with the 22nd pick to move up, but if not look for Dallas to improve in the middle.

29. 49ers (from Colts): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Darrell Jackson didn’t workout so look for the Niners to go to the draft to find a second receiving option opposite TE Vernon Davis for QB Alex Smith. Hardy isn’t a burner, but has the size to be a solid possession receiver and red zone threat.

30. Packers: Fred Davis, TE, USC
It’s not a huge need, but the other players here aren’t among Green Bay’s needs. CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of Tennessee St. is a hot name, but it takes more than one Senior Bowl week for me to reach to get him at the end of the first round.

31. Patriots: Pick Forfeited

32. Giants: Kentwan Balmer, DT, UNC
Great value pick here for the Super Bowl Champs. OLB is a greater need, but I think Shawn Crable out of Michigan will be available at the end of the second round whereas the quality DTs could be gone before New York picks again.