NFL Draft Mock 1st Round

Now I know how Yankees fans felt October 21st 2004. This was the first time I’ve been able to get home to Massachusetts for the Super Bowl, so I’m fairly sure that the Pats lost solely because of me. You’re welcome New York. Well after two days of mourning, the Pats are in the ground, the Giants have had their parade and Belichick is back in Foxboro working on next year and the draft. T-minus eight days til pitchers and catchers report.

The original plan was to hold my first round mock draft until this coming weekend, but that was when I expected to be able to write about the Super Bowl without crying in my beer. Since such is not the case, here’s how I see round one going…

1. Dolphins: Jake Long, OT, Michigan
No way the Fins don’t trade this pick, but I can’t predict to whom or if Miami will pull a Twins and turn down too many good deals. Glenn Dorsey doesn’t really fit in a 3-4 scheme. I’m not sure that Miami is ready to give up on last year’s 2nd round pick John Beck and Chris Long isn’t prototypical at either DE or OLB. Miami doesn’t need a running back with Ronnie Brown coming back from injury for his third season. That leaves Jake Long as the only remaining top 5 talent.

2. Rams: Chris Long, DE, Virginia
If Jake were still available, he would definitely go here, but he won’t be. Chris Long will line up next to last year’s 1st round selection DT Adam Carriker as the Rams solidify their defensive front for the next half-decade and beyond.

The next three picks are determined by coin flips, so I’ll present the way I see the draft going down in each of those six scenarios over the next 3 weeks. First I’ll assume Atlanta wins the coin flips:

3. Falcons: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College
The rebuilding from Hurricane Vick starts with a new quarterback. Ryan is a protypical pocket passer with a rocket arm who guided BC as high as number two in the polls without a lot of NFL talent around him, think Tom Brady in the first couple Super Bowls.

If Oakland is next:

4. Raiders: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU
The Silver and Black needs to replace Warren Sapp and Dorsey is a Sapp clone who fits perfectly in the Raiders defensive system.

5. Chiefs: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State
The Chiefs are in great position. They would take any of the aforementioned guys and be thankful for the discount, but if KC ends up with the fifth pick and if Darren McFadden is still on the board, expect them to shop it. They need help pretty much everywhere except at running back, and if McFadden is still around, someone will step up to get this pick, and get McFadden on the cheap.

If Kansas City is next:
4. Chiefs: Dorsey
Kansas City will line Dorsey up next to last year’s first round pick Tamba Hali and much like the Rams, solidify their D-line for the next 5-10 years.

5. Raiders: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas
This is an Al Davis pick. The Raiders don’t need McFadden, but that’s never stopped Davis from making foolish flashy picks in the past.

6. Jets: Gholston/McFadden
The Jets have to take whoever is available among these guys. If it’s Gholston, the Jets would move the 6-3, 255 pounder to rush OLB in their 3-4 scheme and play him like the Willie McGinest or Mike Vrabel type player that Mangini was used to utilizing in New England. If it’s McFadden look for the Jets to either trade him for Marion Barber and picks or to another team with a greater need at RB (Chicago?) for even more picks. Rest assured, they will not let a weapon like McFadden fall to the Patriots.

7. Patriots (from 49ers): Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy
Without a legit playmaker at corner in this year’s draft, re-signing Asante Samuel is a must for the Pats. If they can do that, I’d expect them to trade this pick, if not, McKelvin is the top DB on the board and without any first round talent at ILB, I’d expect the Pats to go with the corner from Troy.

8. Ravens: Brian Brohm, QB, Louisville
The Ravens need a quarterback almost as bad as the Falcons. I don’t see Brohm as a franchise type guy, but if the Ravens D can rebound and if Willis McGahee can have a solid year, this Louisville product might be able to get them back to the playoffs.

9. Bengals: Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC
Chad Johnson wants out. If packaging this pick with Ocho Cinco could yield a top two or three pick as well as some later picks from the Rams, Dolphins, Chiefs or Raiders (I don’t see the Falcons passing on Ryan) the Bengals would have to give it serious thought. If there isn’t a trade, the Bengals need to spend some serious money getting their defense in shape.

10. Saints: Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida
The Saints really need a linebacker…any linebacker, but there aren’t any worthy here, so expect them to go with their second biggest need: replacing 5-8 CB Jason David.

11. Bills: DeSean Jackson, WR/KR, Cal
Lee Evans needs help and Josh Reed is a number three or number four receiver on a contending team. Jackson could step in immediately at the Z for the Bills and also help on kick returns. Toughness is an issue and going from California to Buffalo could be a shock, but Jackson could give this offense the non-quarterback offensive player it needs to challenge for a playoff spot.

12. Broncos: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State
The Broncos need help all over the O-line. For the first time since I can remember, the Broncos didn’t have a 1,000 yard rusher. Clady is a giant who could start at RT or either guard position immediately.

13. Panthers: Derrick Harvey, DE, Florida
The Panthers could use a situational pass rusher next year and Harvey could be groomed to replace aging Mike Rucker.

14. Bears: Sam Baker, OT, USC
Before the Senior Bowl, I’d have said Kentucky QB Andre Woodson here, but Woodson was miserable and probably fell out of first round contention. There aren’t any other quarterbacks worthy of a first round pick, the Bears don’t need to reach for a running back despite uber-bust Cedric Benson, so I expect they’ll use this pick to lock up their bookend of the future.

15. Lions: Aqib Talib, CB, Kansas
What can I say; there aren’t any wide receivers to take here. The Lions still haven’t replaced Dre Bly, and although I’m not sold on Talib, he’s the best of what’s left at CB. Of course with Matt Millen, you never know…

16. Cardinals: Calais Campbell, DE, Miami
Arizona needs all kinds of help on D and this unpolished genetic marvel is as good a place to start as any.

17. Vikings: Malcolm Kelly, WR, Oklahoma
Tavaris Jackson needs help in the passing game…lots of it. Michigan’s Mario Manningham is a possibility here too, but I’ll take the bigger Kelly to play opposite Sidney Rice allowing burner Troy Williamson to move into the slot.

18. Texans: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt
Houston needs help all over the place, but both Panthers OTs coming up on free agency and Williams could play either bookend.

19. Eagles: Mario Manningham, WR, Michigan
Whoever plays QB for Philly next year is going to need help in the passing game. Manningham is a burner and a playmaker, and while he tended to disappear occasionally at Michigan, he’s the best skill position player available.

20. Buccaneers: Limas Sweed, WR, Texas
The run on wide outs continues as Tampa looks to find a playmaker in the passing game in hopes that Cadillac Williams return from injury will allow them to pass on the running backs that would otherwise fit in this area of the first round.

21. Redskins: Kenny Phillips, S, Miami
The Skins will look to another Miami product to replace Sean Taylor’s presence in the defensive secondary.

22. Cowboys (from Browns): Jeff Otah, OT, Pitt
Jerry Jones wants McFadden. I don’t know why seeing as he’s got a Pro Bowl running back in Marion Barber and a change-of-pace burner in Julius Jones… but he does. If he can’t trade up, the Cowboys could get younger on the O-line.

23. Steelers: Phillip Merling, DE, Clemson
Neither Brett Keisel nor Nick Eason is a guy you’re excited about starting 16+ times per year, and Merling has the ability to make an impact immediately.

24. Titans: Early Doucet, WR, LSU
Doucet doesn’t excite me as he has neither elite speed nor size and he has trouble staying healthy but he has great hands and flashes a second gear in space. Vince Young needs a playmaker in the passing game or else his slide from Rookie of the Year to Sophomore Slump may continue into year three.

25. Seahawks: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois
Shaun Alexander looks washed up just 2 years after an MVP season. Maurice Morris is an adequate change-of-pace back but has no business starting. Mendenhall could step in and start immediately, and if Seattle’s passing game can maintain the momentum it built late last season, Rashard could put up some serious numbers.

26. Jaguars: Quentin Groves, DE, Auburn
I know, another Jags D-lineman who can’t stay on the field, but Jacksonville let Tom Brady go 26-28 because they couldn’t get to the quarterback. Groves could be the solution as a situational pass rusher early in his career until he bulks up into a true 4-3 DE.

27. Chargers: Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College
This could be where Jonathan Stewart ends up if the Chargers can’t re-sign Michael Turner. With Darren Sproles still on the roster and the wealth of running backs slated to come off the board in the second and third rounds, I can’t see San Diego matching the money that other teams offer, but at the same time I can’t see taking a backup for LDT in the first round when they could upgrade their O-line with a starter at RT.

28. Cowboys: Dan Conner, ILB, Penn State
Conner has the size to play inside and the speed to play outside in a 3-4 scheme. Again, this pick could be packaged with the 22nd pick to move up, but if not look for Dallas to improve in the middle.

29. 49ers (from Colts): James Hardy, WR, Indiana
Darrell Jackson didn’t workout so look for the Niners to go to the draft to find a second receiving option opposite TE Vernon Davis for QB Alex Smith. Hardy isn’t a burner, but has the size to be a solid possession receiver and red zone threat.

30. Packers: Fred Davis, TE, USC
It’s not a huge need, but the other players here aren’t among Green Bay’s needs. CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie out of Tennessee St. is a hot name, but it takes more than one Senior Bowl week for me to reach to get him at the end of the first round.

31. Patriots: Pick Forfeited

32. Giants: Kentwan Balmer, DT, UNC
Great value pick here for the Super Bowl Champs. OLB is a greater need, but I think Shawn Crable out of Michigan will be available at the end of the second round whereas the quality DTs could be gone before New York picks again.